2012 BC Juvenile Fillies Could be a Field of Six

The 2012 running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies will probably be the smallest field in the history of the race. With only nine horses pre-entered and five of those cross-entered into other races, it seems certain that less than eight horses will run.

 

Of the five horses cross-entered, three of them have the Juvenile Fillies listed as their second choice. If they stick with their first choice in the Breeders’ Cup then the field of six would be two below the smallest size, which happened in 1993 and 1995. Six horses is also the smallest field in Breeders’ Cup history and that happened twice in the Distaff in 1987 and 1996.

 

The Juvenile Fillies will be run on the Friday card as race seven, which has a post time of 3:08pm PT. The race is part of two pick four wagers that begin in races six and seven.

 

Here are some interesting facts about this year’s Juvenile Fillies field.

 

•All three “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Challenge winners are pre-entered to run.

 

•Four of the nine horses have only won one race.

 

•There are three undefeated horses in the field.

 

•Six of the horses have trainers who have never won the Juvenile Fillies, but the other three trainers have won it a total of nine times.

 

•Three have never raced on a dirt surface and three have run all of their races on the dirt.

 

•Six of the fillies are based in the east and three are stabled in the west at Santa Anita.

 

Over the years horses from the east have had very little luck in the California hosted Breeders’ Cups. Clearly the two most recent runnings at Santa Anita, on the artificial Pro-Ride track, added at surface change to the mix.  Even when Santa Anita had dirt, the east coasters did not fare well.  Back in October I did hear California jockey Mike Smith comment that the new Santa Anita dirt track reminded him a lot of the sandy surface at Belmont Park.

 

The shipping west of Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie from Todd Pletcher’s Belmont Park barn may be complicated by Hurricane Sandy. Whit Beckman, Pletcher’s assistant in New York, said, “We’re still scheduled to ship them all out. My understanding is the flight may be pushed back from Tuesday to Wednesday. But all in all, it doesn’t really hurt us.”

 

Almost An Angel, Beholder, and Sweet Shirley Mae are cross-entered in the Juvenile Sprint and list that race as their first choice. Kauai Katie is also entered in the Sprint, but she is listed with the Juvenile Fillies as her top choice.  Frankly, I do not see Kauai Katie going in the longer race as her running style would have her going head to head with her Stonestreet stablemate Dreaming of Julia. That leaves a likely field of five or six.

 

Broken Spell runs for D. Wayne Lukas, who has won more Juvenile Fillies than any other trainer. He has a career record of 5 wins from 42 starts in this race. Broken Spell's last four races have been on turf or polytrack and have been very impressive. Her first two races on the Churchill Downs dirt were poor.

 

The regally bred Dreaming of Julia is undefeated in three starts. In her win in the Frizette, she survived a very fast pace and a head to head stretch duel. Her most recent work indicates that she has bounced back from that very tough race in good order.

 

Executiveprivilege has not lost in five races.  Her performance in her last four races has been extremely consistent with Beyers ranging from 84 to 88. The Bob Baffert trainee has a huge home track advantage and she will no doubt be a big betting favorite. I am concerned about the reports on her most recent workout. Baffert teamed her up with one of his sprinters for the six furlong work. Executiveprivilege kept up with the speedster for a quarter and then faded and finished looking tired.

 

Renee's Queen is cross-entered in the Juvenile Filly Turf, where she is an also-eligible, but lists that race as her second choice even though she has never run on dirt.  She broke her maiden on the turf in her fourth start in a $100,000 stakes race at Del Mar in September.

 

Spring in the Air has run two great races against fields of 14 in her last two starts.  She rallied from tenth to win the Alcibiades at Keeneland on the turf. Spring in the Air has also never run on the dirt.

 

Many will see the small field in this year’s Juvenile Fillies as an easy spot for Executiveprivilege and that is probably the case. However, I will not be treating this race as a single in the pick fours.