United Nations 2017 - Odds and Analysis

The $300,000 United Nations Stakes (G1) has been a very important contest in the American turf racing scene over the past few years. Run at Monmouth Park at a distance of a mile and three-eighths, the Eclipse Award winner for Champion Male Turf Horse has come out of this race two of the last three years with Big Blue Kitten in 2015 and Main Sequence in 2014. Back in 2007, English Channel won his second United Nations in a row on route to his Turf Championship.

It is also worth noting that the great turf star, Better Talk Now, who just passed away the other day after complications from colic surgery at the age of 18, won five career grade one races including the United Nations in 2005 as a six-year-old. The spirited Graham Motion favorite ran in this race in 2005, 2006, and 2007, adding a third-place finish in 2007.

This year’s race has a field of nine in which only one horse has a grade one victory. All but one of the rest of the runners have at least a win in a grade two or three. To be run Saturday, July 1, as the final race in an eleven-race card, post time is 5:57pm ET.

Beach Patrol [ML 5-2 – Chad Brown – Florent Geroux] is the lone grade one winner in the field, but that victory in the 2016 Secretariat is his most recent victory. Since then, this Chad Brown trainee has been seen most recently in four grade one stakes where he recorded a fourth and three second place finishes with three consecutive Beyer Speed Figures of 102. There is no question that the son of Lemon Drop Kid holds a class advantage over the rest of the field, but his propensity to place has to be of concern. This probable favorite will not provide any value to bettors. Class edge, but I’ll look elsewhere.

Itsinthepost [ML 7-2 – Jeff Mullins – Tyler Baze] is the grade two winner of the Elkhorn at Keeneland and the San Luis Rey at Santa Anita. He will be shipping to New Jersey from Santa Anita along with trainer Jeff Mullins and regular rider Tyler Baze after a bullet work just a few days ago. It is certainly a confident move to ship east, where turf racing is more competitive, for his first start in a grade one. The French-bred fits well with this field and is clearly in the best from of his career. Dangerous west coast invader. Top Choice.

Bigger Picture [ML 4-1 – Michael Maker – Joe Bravo] won the grade three John B. Connally at Sam Houston in January and was eighth in U. N. last year. In his most recent start in April, he was third behind Itsinthepost. Regular rider Jose Ortiz is not making the trip to Monmouth and instead three-time UN winner “Jersey” Joe Bravo gets the mount. The Mike Maker runner has been away from the races for more than two months and that is a big concern. Like others better.

Closing Bell [ML 10-1 – Bill Mott – Jose Lezcano] has a stakes win back in 2015 in the Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs. He spent this past winter racing in Australia without much success. Since he returned to the barn of Bill Mott, he has run exclusively in allowance company, winning his last start at Belmont Park. It looks like a tough spot for this son of Tapit. Tough spot.

Messi [ML 12-1 – Graham Motion – Orlando Bocachica] finished a very respectable third in the Fort Marcy (G3) at Belmont Park in his first start of the year. This German-bred from the barn of Graham Motion can win the United Nations with his best effort. Very quietly Motion is having an excellent year and his horses are winning at very good prices. At the current Monmouth meeting Motion has 6 wins from 23 starters for 26% I think Messi will also be a solid value price. This Motion runner has a shot.

Liam the Charmer [ML 8-1 – Michael McCarthy – Victor Espinoza] is shipping to Monmouth from Santa Anita along with Itsinthepost. This Michael McCarthy trainee is an allowance winner who has been working well and regular rider Victor Espinoza is named aboard. In the San Luis Rey, he finished fourth behind Itsinthepost. He has no bad efforts amongst his four 2017 starts, but he will have to make a significant step-up to compete here. Looking for first stakes win.

Can’thelpbelieving [ML 8-1 – Graham Motion – Paco Lopez] won the Cliffhanger (G3) last August on the Monmouth grass. That was the last start of 2016 for this stablemate of Messi. He returned this year in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill where he finished last in the field of eleven. Next came a fourth-place finish in the Red Bank (G3) at the Jersey Shore. That makes the U. N. the third race of his current form cycle and this Irish-bred will offer some big odds. Third race back from a layoff.

Oscar Nominated [ML 5-1 – Mike Maker – Kendrick Carmouche] has PPs that tell a similar tale to those of Beach Patrol, that this Ramsey home-bred son of Kitten’s Joy has been having trouble finding the winner’s circle of late. His most recent victory came in the 2016 Dueling Grounds Derby and since then he has hit the board in graded stakes company, last seen finishing just behind Beach Patrol in the Turf Classic. He and Beach Patrol have a class edge and they could be the right exacta play, but if I am going against Beach Patrol then I must go against Oscar Nominated. Got class, but long time since his last win.

Lucky Lindy [ML 15-1 – Michael Matz – Nik Juarez] made a winning return to the races after about a 20-month layoff. New trainer Michael Matz had the five-year-old ready to roll in a May Monmouth Park allowance. Back in 2015, Lucky Lindy won two consecutive grade threes for trainer Mark Frostad, just before his long absence from the races. This horse has some talent and has only run one bad race in his eight-race career and that was at first asking. It will be interesting to see how he fares in what will be his toughest competition until now. Talented horse, but too much to ask?