Closing in on the Kentucky Oaks
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
What’s not to like about the Kentucky Oaks? In 137 runnings,
the Kentucky Oaks has produced some of the sports brightest stars and most
thrilling memories and yet it still plays second fiddle to its world-famous
counterpart, the Kentucky Derby. There are several upsides to rooting for the
Kentucky Oaks and two especially big reasons to like it just as much as the
Derby. First, the Kentucky Oaks is run at the same thrilling venue as the Derby
but is restricted to a reasonable 14 horse field. This means it can be run as an
actual race, with strategy and some amount of uniformity and not as mad-house 20
horse dash like the Derby. Ok, the Derby might not be that hectic, but there’s
a whole lot more disarray once the field breaks from the gate than there is in
the Oaks. Second, winners of the Kentucky Oaks, and participants in general,
tend to have much longer careers on the track than winners and participants of
the Kentucky Derby. Recent powerhouse fillies such as Rachel Alexandra and
Blind Luck have provided some of the most exciting post-Oaks winning careers
this decade. So I ask again; what’s not to like about the Kentucky Oaks?
Absolutely nothing I say.
The Kentucky Oaks will be run for the 138th time
this Friday at prestigious Churchill Downs and a full field of three-year-old
fillies is expected. Much has taken place over the past week and a half that
has seriously altered the shape of the Oaks field. The brilliant, undefeated Princess
Arabella was retired due to an inflamed tendon that was discovered just one
month after her powerful eight length romp in the Sunland Park Oaks. Trainer
Bob Baffert was understandably disappointed with the loss of such a talented
filly stating, “It’s a shame
because she was such a brilliant filly, and it’s a big blow to the Baffert barn
because it’s a freaky thing when you get a horse like that.”
Baffert lost a
second Kentucky Oaks contender nine days after losing Princess Arabella when
owner John Fort announced that undefeated Fantasy Stakes (gr.2) winner, Mamma
Kimbo, would bypass the Oaks in favor of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr.2) at
Pimlico on May 18th. There is nothing wrong with the filly according
to Fort, but he and Baffert felt she ran very hard in the Fantasy and requires
a little more time between races, especially since she has only run twice in
her life.
In other news
trainer Todd Pletcher announced Bourbonette
Oaks winner, In Lingerie, would also skip the Kentucky Oaks and point towards
the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Preakness Stakes day. He also confirmed that
Broadway’s Alibi will contest the Kentucky Oaks, welcome news to many fans that
have witnessed the filly’s impressive string of four consecutive wins,
including back-to-back graded stakes triumphs. This is a granddaughter of
Seattle Slew through her sire Vindication so the possibilities are endless and
the Oaks field is surely enriched by her entry.
The D. Wayne
Lukas trained Colonial Empress had her first recorded workout over the
Churchill downs dirt strip on April 18th, running a bullet :47.00 flat
for the four furlongs and then returned one week later on Wednesday the 25h to
cover four furlongs in :48.40. As a daughter of Empire Maker she warrants
respect, but in three career starts she has finished 4th, 3rd
and 5th, all in stakes competition. Case in point, I don’t think she’s
ready to win a race like the Oaks.
Friday was
jam-packed with workouts from Oaks contenders and one of the best moves came
from leading Oaks contender On Fire Baby who ran seven furlongs in 1:27.00 flat
which was a two seconds better than Sacristy’s 1:29.00 move the same day. On
Fire Baby is coming into the Oaks fresh after skipping the Arkansas Derby
and/or Fantasy Stakes in favor of training straight up to the big race after
her Honeybee Stakes (gr.3) win. This filly already has two wins at Churchill
Downs so as far as I’m concerned she’s already got an edge over most of the
Oaks contenders.
Davona Dale
(gr.2) long-shot winner Yara also visited the track on Friday, posting a slow :51.00
four furlong breeze. She’ll enter the Oaks off a dismal 5th place
finish behind Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr.2). The feeling here
is that she’s going to have to show something huge on Oaks day in order to be a
factor.
Hard Not to Like turned
in a very nice work on Friday over Woodbine’s Polytrack. The Hard Spun filly
covered five furlongs in 1:01 3/5, earning high praise from trainer Gail Cox.
With a name like hers it really is hard not to like this filly, and being a
Hard Spun filly just makes it all the better. She has just one start to her
credit this year, a second place finish behind Karlovy Vary in the Grade 1
Central Bank Ashland Stakes.
Saturday saw even
more Kentucky Oaks contenders hitting the track to strut their stuff. Eden’s
Moon breezed six furlongs in 1:14.00 at Churchill, that followed a speedy
1:00.00 flat five furlong work on April 22nd. As incredible as it
seems Bob Baffert still has a powerhouse filly in the Oaks after losing two
already in Princess Arabella and Mamma Kimbo. Eden’s Moon seems to have lost a
lot of respect after her third place finish in the Santa Anita Oaks (gr.1)
behind Willa B Awesome who subsequently returned Saturday to win the Melair
Stakes. I think Eden’s Moon has a huge shot at winning the Oaks.
Trainer Michael
Matz already trains the best looking horse at Churchill Downs in Union Rags,
and after his top Oaks contender, And Why Not, blazed through a four furlong
work in :46.80 on Saturday to rank the best of 47 horses running the distance, it
appears he has both his prospects in tip-top shape for their big weekends. And
Why Not is a daughter of Street Cry and a granddaughter of A.P. Indy through
her dam Alchemist. That makes for an excellent pedigree, but she has yet to
live up to her potential with just a maiden win to her credit in five lifetime
starts.
Broadway’s Alibi
worked four furlongs in :48.45 at Palm Meadows Training Center for her final
Oaks preparations. That’s faster than her :49.98 four furlong breeze prior to winning
the Comely Stakes. She’s a very average worker who uses her blazing speed once
the real running begins.
Karlovy Vary
covered five furlongs in 1:01.20 at Churchill Downs, that follows a :48.60 four
furlong breeze on April 20th. Daughter of the late, great stallion
Dynaformer, Karlovy Vary enters the Oaks off an upset win in the Grade 1
Ashland Stakes.
Amie’s Dini wins
the award for worst work of the weekend when she covered five furlongs in
1:05.40, somehow managing to run a faster time than two other horses. The
feeling here is that she will have to be much sharper to win the Oaks or hit
the top three. She performed admirably at Oaklawn Park this year, winning the
Martha Washington Stakes before finishing second in both the Honeybee and
Fantasy Stakes.
Believe You Can
is rapidly beginning to display all the signs of a filly ready to run a big
race. Aside from winning two of her last three starts, two of which were graded
stakes, Believe You Can turned in a fantastic :59.00 flat five furlong bullet
at Churchill Downs on April 23rd and then followed that up with an
even more powerful :58.40 five furlong move on Saturday. That is a seriously
impressive succession of works to post back-to-back on the brink of the biggest
race of her career thus far.
It is now Tuesday,
which means there are officially just three days until the Kentucky Oaks is
run. Once the post positions are announced we’ll have a better idea of what the
pace scenario could be and who stands to benefit from the positions. From there
it should be easier to eliminate a few contenders and narrow down the list of
contenders to a top three selection.
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