Super Screener: Derby Contender Upgrades and Downgrades
The Kentucky Derby Super Screener is the ultimate guide to crushing the Kentucky Derby. Author Mike Shutty developed a set of specific criteria that last year hit the Trifecta three times! Here is some more insight from Mike on this year's running...
Now Available: 2012 Kentucky Derby Super Screener
Derby Contender Upgrades and Downgrades
The Kentucky Derby and the nine final preps leading up to the Derby couldn't be more different when it comes to field size, pace, trips and distance. Yet, often we make the mistake of treating the prep races and the Kentucky Derby as somewhat interchangeable when it comes to evaluating contenders.
As is so often the case, prep races can be plagued by short fields run in soft fractions that favor horses with an early pace distribution. Of the nine final preps run, only three races produced extreme pace variations...ironically, the two slowest-paced races were run on the speediest surfaces.
Download Now: 2012 Kentucky Derby Super Screener
Top 2 Most Extreme Prep Pace Scenarios
Both the Santa Anita Derby and the Florida Derby were races that were run "very slow early and fast late". In the Florida Derby, Take Charge Indy and Reveron were one/two from gate to wire.
They crawled early as the lone speedster, Take Charge Indy, controlled the pace throughout. Union Rags and El Padrino had no shot whatsoever...and they did not need to win that race as they already had plenty of Graded Stakes earnings.
The Santa Anita Derby set up in almost exactly the same way. I'll Have Another sat just off the super slow early pace getting the first jump on the closer, Creative Cause, and won in a head bob with Creative Cause who was moving forward just after the wire.
The slow pace really favored I'll Have Another and it worked against Creative Cause (as is did in all of his preps this year). Look for the outcome to be reversed in the Derby.
Download Now: 2012 Kentucky Derby Super Screener
Key Downgrades/Upgrades For The Kentucky Derby
So, in summary, when considering the chances of your Derby contenders, you might want to incorporate the following upgrades and downgrades:
| Upgrades | Downgrades |
| Union Rags | Take Charge Indy (major downgrade) |
| El Padrino | I'll Have Another (minor downgrade) |
| Creative Cause | |
| Liaison | |
| Hansen* |
* Fastest pace of all preps though did so on his own accord.
Now Available: 2012 Kentucky Derby Super Screener
Put it all together for the Kentucky Derby and don't miss out on the chance for the score of a lifetime. Get the entire Super Screener RIGHT NOW...