3 Million Dollar Guaranteed Breeders' Cup Pick 4 Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup is offering a $3,000,000 guarantee to its all-stakes late pick 4.  The late pick 4 that starts in race 8, and includes the Breeders’ Cup Mile, the Breeders’ Cup Turf, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and the gem of them all the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There’s an old saying that goes “money talks and b.s. walks,” it is put up or shut up time, and I’m ready to cash in on this massive guaranteed pool.

The Breeders’ Cup Mile is an extremely contentious race. The Euro’s seem to hold all the cards in this game of poker. The 5-year-old mare #9 Esoterique is 7/2 on the morning line for trainer Andre Fabre and jockey Pierre Charles Boudot. Esoterique has been extremely consistent against top level milers in Europe and will have a big shot today.  The returning champion #11 Karakontie is coming into to this race in much better form than he was last year when he blew up the tote board at 30/1. The Japanese bred son of Bernstein will be ridden by Stephane Pasquier who rode him to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile victory.  Esoterique’s stable-mate #3 Make Believe is the 3/1 morning line favorite for Andre Fabre. Make Believe has been sensational in 6 starts. His three-year-old campaign has been ultra-impressive with 2 grade 1 wins with his only bad performance coming to the monster, Gleneagles.

#5 Impassable is 8/1 on the morning line for Carlos Laffon-Parais and jockey Maxime H. Guyon. The 3-year-old son of Invincible Spirit is riding a 3 race win streak in France with a pair of those coming in grade 2 affairs.  Mark Casse saddles the strong American contender #7 Tepin. The daughter of Bernstein has been nothing short of spectacular this season for Casse. She’s less than a length away from being undefeated on the season with only two narrow defeats on her scorecard. Her trouncing of grade 1 company in the First Lady stakes at Keeneland was nothing short of breathtaking.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile looks to be a wide open field, it's full of several different betting options. #3 Greenpointcrusader is 4/1 on the morning line for the combo of Dominick Schettino and Joe Bravo. The son of Bernardini has been strong in 3 starts with his only blemish coming in his debut where he closed fast to lose by a neck while sprinting. #9 Exaggerator is 6/1 on the morning line for last year’s Juvenile winning connections Keith and Kent Desormeaux. The son of Curlin is coming off a narrow defeat to Brody’s Cause in the (G1) Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland. He has the right closing style and pedigree to take this race. #2 Riker is 15/1 on the morning line for the Canadian connections of Nick Gonzalez and Jesse Campbell. The son of Include is undefeated and untested in 4 starts and will be making his first start on conventional dirt, he’s bred to enjoy the dirt and comes in off a strong 5 furlong breeze on a dirt surface at the Woodbine training track.

No horse has ever won the Breeders’ Cup Turf after winning the Arc but I believe that streak ends this year with the monster 3-year-old Golden Horn. #1 Golden Horn is 4/5 on the morning line and is neck away from being undefeated in his career for trainer John Gosden. Frankie Dettori gets the mount on Golden Horn and he’ll be looking for a flying dismount in the winner’s circle as this race runs through him first. The Pizza Man has been as good as a Pizza can get! #10 The Pizza Man is 15/1 on the morning line and looks to be America’s best chance. The Pizza Man is coming in off a strong prep in the (G1) Shadwell Turf Mile where he closed from the clouds to just come up a head short to Grand Arch.

American Pharoah #4 is hoping to make the Breeders’ Cup Classic his winning swan song. The Triple Crown winner is looking for the grand slam and looking to carve his name in history as the only horse to ever win the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Victor Espinoza has to love the way the race looks on paper with very little other speed. Keen Ice #2 is 12/1 on the morning line for trainer Dale Romans. He’s the only horse to have beat American Pharoah this season and he’s put together back to back triple digit beyer speed figures, he might just be getting good at the right time. Effenix is 30/1 for trainer Jimmy Jerkens and hall of famer Mike Smith. Effenix is a true 10 furlong horse, he’s a viable longshot, who reminds me a bit of the 2011 Classic winner Drosselmeyer.

Breeders’ Cup  $0.50 Pick 4 total cost $45.00

Race #8 Breeders’ Cup Mile –  #3 Make Believe, #5 Impassable, #7 Tepin, #9 Estorique, #11 Karakontie

Race #9 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile -  #2 Riker, #3 Greenpointcrusader, #9 Exaggerator

Race #10 Breeders’ Cup Turf - #1 Golden Horn, #10 The Pizza Man

Race #11 Breeders’ Cup Classic - #2 Keen Ice, #4 American Pharoah, #6 Effinex