HorseCenter: Kentucky Derby 2026 top 10 rankings

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman preview the one day of racing everyone looks forward to. Their first consensus top 10 for Kentucky Derby 2026 features a pair of highly regarded colts coming off stylish prep wins in Nearly and Paladin, but who else makes the list?

With the first Saturday in May now only 10 weeks away, connections are getting serious about having their young talents peaking at just the right time. Derby contenders have far fewer prep races than in the past, so every race from now until the Churchill Downs starting gate springs open will be critical. Without further ado, let’s get to the rankings.

1. Nearly (Not This Time-Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft), Todd Pletcher

Brian (no. 2) It always worries me a bit when a horse fires all his best shots at the same track. Having said that, it is far too early to pigeonhole Nearly as a Gulfstream Park-only type of horse. His three wins there have been dynamic, impressive and fast. In the Grade 3 Holy Bull, he showed the ability to flash big early speed to take the race right to the favorite. He did it without getting tired and looked strong down the stretch. The type of speed scenario that plays out in the Kentucky Derby will have a say in his chances, but even if it is fast, he looks versatile enough to adapt. He will be tough to beat in the Florida Derby (G1) next.

Matt (no. 1) At this point in February there are only 15 Kentucky Derby qualifying races left, so most of the horses trying to get to the run for the roses have only one chance left to get the points they need.

Just as Ted Noffey dropped off the Derby trail and Todd Pletcher lost the early favorite for the big race, along came Nearly to continue the winning ways of the 2-year-old champion. Ted Noffey won four races in a row last year, and Nearly now has won his last three. The Florida-bred moved from a maiden to an allowance and then on to the Derby trail to win those races by a combined margin of 20 lengths at odds of less than 2-1 each time.

2. Paladin (Gun Runner-Secret Sigh by Tapit), Chad Brown

Brian (no. 1) My concerns about this colt will have nothing to do with the distance, as I believe he wants to run all day. He already has two graded-stakes wins going nine furlongs, and in both the Remsen (G2) and the Risen Star (G2), he looked like he was just getting going when the finish line showed up. With a nice return race under his belt, he should only get better from here. Will he prove fast enough? We will learn more at Keeneland, but for now, I have him in the top spot. His high-profile trainer never has won a Kentucky Derby, but Paladin should give him a big chance in 10 weeks.

Matt (no. 3) Paladin became only the second horse to win two Derby points races, with Ted Noffey being the other one. That fact that son of Gun Runner got those victories going the 1 1/8-mile distance on two very different racing surfaces at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds is a feather in his cap. He had to grind out the win in the Risen Star against the fourth choice in Chip Honcho, and that might be a bit of a concern. Some experts had dismissed the second-place finisher even though he had a win on the Derby trail. Paladin has locked up a spot in the Derby field with his 60 points, which puts him at No. 1 on the leaderboard.

3. Napoleon Solo (Liam’s Map-Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy), Chad Summers

Brian (no. 4) One of the most brilliant juveniles of the crop, Napoleon Solo did plenty in only two starts in 2025. His wins sprinting at Saratoga and going a mile at Aqueduct were absolutely excellent, and the romping winner of the Champagne (G1) also showed plenty in his workouts. I hope the Fountain of Youth (G2) is his sophomore debut rather than the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct so we can see him around two turns sooner. I don’t know if he is a classic-distance horse, but I do know that he is one of the fastest horses in this crop.

Matt (no. 5) Napoleon Solo was fast and visually impressive winning his two starts by a combined margin of almost 12 lengths. Trainer Chad Summers has been working for owner Al Gold’s Gold Square Stable. Prior to this Derby contender, Summer was known for his talented sprinter Mind Your Biscuits. Right after the Champagne victory, those connections did not hesitate about how important the Kentucky Derby is as a goal and that Napolean Solo would be sent to Florida to get ready for his next stop on the Derby trail. He began official workouts at Palm Meadows in January.

4. Silent Tactic (Tacitus-Magical Sign by Gun Runner), Mark Casse

Brian (no. 8) I can see why many have this son of Tacitus ranked highly. His win in the Southwest (G3) was visually impressive. The pace was much better than in his previous race, but it still was not fast. Casse has been winning in bunches this year, and this looks to be his best Derby hope in years. I easily could have ranked him higher, as I do think he is a horse who will handle 1 1/4 miles, but I remain skeptical of the class of horse he has been running against at Woodbine and Oaklawn.

Matt (no. 2) Regular readers of the HorseCenter articles remember that Silent Tactic was my top pick heading into the Southwest (G3) at 12-1, and he did not disappoint with his late-running victory against the field of 12. He moved forward from his second-place finish in the Smarty Jones and has proven that he has potential to be full of run down the stretch at Churchill Downs. He has 25 Derby points right now, so a top three finish is probably all he needs to qualify for the run for the roses. Still a bit overlooked, Silent Tactic closed at 19-1 in the recent Derby future wager.

5. Renegade (Into Mischief-Spice is Nice, by Curlin), Todd Pletcher

Brian (no. 7) Another colt I easily could have ranked higher. He carried over his good Aqueduct form from late last year with a going-away win at Tampa Bay Downs in the Sam F. Davis. His closing fractions in that race were excellent. The competition will only get tougher from here, but with two races against Paladin last year, he already has proven his class. Pletcher lost the champion Ted Noffey for this year’s Derby but still has Nearly and Renegade in the barn. That’s quite a crop for one of America’s top trainers.

Matt (no. 4) Renegade stepped up on the Derby trail with his Sam F. Davis victory to go with his second-place finish going nine furlongs at Aqueduct. Pletcher will keep Renegade and Nearly separated for their next starts on the Derby trail. With Nearly’s win in the Holy Bull, he is likely to stay at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby (G1). And with Renegade's success at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial (G2) makes sense the same weekend.

6. Further Ado (Gun Runner-Sky Dreamer by Sky Mesa), Brad Cox

Brian (no. 3) After not showing much in two sprints to start his career, this son of Gun Runner made me a believer when he transitioned to two turns in his next two starts. His maiden win at Keeneland was scintillatingm and then he showed his class over the Churchill Downs track in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). I believe he put away a talented horse in Soldier N Diplomat that afternoon. There is much to prove this year, starting with a likely return in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but I think Cox has a real contender here.

Matt (NR) Cox just keeps coming in waves on the Derby trail with runners in almost every race. He knows what he is doing as he already has had great success on the first Saturday in May. Further Ado has been back in training at Payson Park in Florida since Jan. 25, with impressive breeze times. No doubt that I easily could have had him ranked high up on this Derby contenders list. Wherever he makes his 2026 debut, he is going to have to face a serious field with only 10 weeks until May 2.

7. Brant (Gun Runner-Tynan by Liam’s Map), Bob Baffert

Brian (no. 6) Baffert has several colts to like right now on the Kentucky Derby trail, and this $3 million yearling leads the way on my list. His three races last year were very good, and he has the pedigree to move forward into classic distances. I also think the Hall of Fame trainer is tipping his hand a bit by sending this one to Arkansas to face a big field in the Rebel (G2) in his 3-year-old debut. Following the same path as American Pharoah, Brant is working very well and looking splendid for his return. His running style is a bit of a worry, but I still like him.

Matt (no. 8) Brant has the $3 million auction price and obviously the right connections. He, too, has been back in training since January and in typical fashion is stretching in distance in the morning already with fast six-furlong breezes expected to come shortly. If he comes back at Oaklawn, he will find big purse money and a big field. Certainly, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) would be a softer spot. I have my concerns after his performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and waiting so long to come back on the Derby trail is not ideal.

8. Golden Tempo (Curlin-Carrumba by Bernardini), Cherie DeVaux

Brian (no. 9) If you liked Golden Tempo before the Risen Star, you should not get off the bandwagon after his third-place finish. He has little early speed, and the race simply did not set up well for him. All things considered, it was his third straight solid run from the back of the pack to begin his career. His lack of speed will be a concern in many races unless he changes his style, but sometimes the Kentucky Derby is won by horses who can pick up the pieces late. Right now, I like him better as an exotic filler on the first Saturday in May.

Matt (no. 6) I did like Golden Tempo before the Risen Star and before the Lecomte (G3). He is the kind of horse who could come running late in the Derby with good odds to pass lots of tired horses. With racing luck, who knows?

9. Blackout Time (Not This Time-Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality) Kenny McPeek

Brian (no. 5) I was disappointed not to see this one get a chance in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, because I believed he was one of the best 2-year-olds in the land. Bred to get better with maturity, I still expect big things out of the son of Not This Time. Looking good in his recent works, it looks like he is all set to make his seasonal debut in what promises to be a strong edition of the Rebel. He doesn’t need to win that one after such a long layoff, but he should have enough foundation to run a good one.

Matt (NR) He broke his maiden in his second try against a field of 12 at Ellis Park in August by almost 10 lengths as an odds-on favorite. It was a small field in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), at Keeneland and he finished second between two Derby trail winners in Ted Noffey and Litmus Test. Blackout Time came out of pool 4 in the KDFW with 32-1 odds. He has a lot to do between now and the first Saturday in May, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he succeeds.

10. Chip Honcho (Connect-Miss My Rose by Magician), Steve Asmussen

Brian (NR) This grandson of Curlin has run three consecutive solid performances in stakes company and deserves to be talked about as one of the top sophomores in the land so far this year. Having said that, if he could not beat Paladin with the advantages he had in the Risen Star, I am not sure how he is going to turn the tables in future races with more speed and more distance. He does have solid distance pedigree in his bloodlines, but I have not seen enough yet to consider him one of my top 10 contenders.

Matt (no. 7) I felt like Chip Honcho deserved some respect after his performance in the Risen Star. He made the highly regarded Paladin work very hard down the stretch at the Fair Grounds and finished more than five lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Chip Honcho might not win the Derby, but with Steve Asmussen as his trainer he could be a 3-year-old to reckon with as the year goes on.