HorseCenter: Analysis and top picks for Saratoga stakes

This week on HorseCenter, we set our sights on a big Saturday afternoon of racing from Saratoga. Five graded stakes, the last four of which are Grade 1, guarantee an entertaining day of racing at the Spa. The headliner of the card will be the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney. The historic race has been won by past greats such as War Admiral, Tom Fool, Kelso, Dr. Fager, Alydar and Easy Goer. It is also the race where Onion famously upset Secretariat.

This year’s edition features the fifth meeting between champions Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Last seen together running 1-2 in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic, this will be their first matchup as older runners. Former Whitney winner White Abarrio, as well as Skippylongstocking, Highland Falls and Post Time contribute to the overall depth and quality of the nine-furlong affair.

We also handicap and offer top picks for the Fourstardave Stakes (G1). Named for the Sultan of Saratoga, the one-mile turf test is headlined by the return of Johannes, who has an 8-for-10 record on the grass. Other classy notables in the wide-open race include Deterministic, Spirit of St Louis, Think Big and Intellect.

Brian: Before jumping into the Whitney, Matt, let’s talk a little bit about last Saturday’s Jim Dandy (G2). Sovereignty continues to impress. He has won five times in six tries in graded-stakes company, and he is only getting better with maturity. I thought Baeza ran a strong race to distance himself from the rest, but the way the winner finishes off these races is most impressive. It reminds me a little bit of the late-running power of Java Gold when he got really good back in 1987. Sovereignty is going to be tough to deny in the Travers (G1), no matter who shows up.

Matt: Again, Sovereignty ran a big race in the Jim Dandy. It was another very hot day at Saratoga last Saturday, and before the race Sovereignty looked sweaty and washed out. So in that regard it was another new challenge for the Godolphin homebred. Was the heat getting the best of him before the race even started?

The lone speed Mo Plex stumbled out of the gate, still got to the lead but set rather slow fractions. In the end he was not a factor in the race as Sovereignty used a strong and steady closing move to get to the lead around the quarter pole and held off any challenge that Baeza provided.

I thought Sovereignty’s winning move in the Jim Dandy looked a lot like Journalism down the stretch at Monmouth Park when he won the Haskell (G1). They both looked like winners for the entirety of their first post-Triple Crown start.

Brian: I think our Whitney discussion needs to start with Fierceness and Sierra Leone. If not for the fantastic race by Thorpedo Anna in last year’s Travers, these two would have finished 1-2 in their last three meetings. Sierra Leone got the money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic after a torrid early pace, but it was Fierceness who got the best of his rival in the Jim Dandy and the Travers, which were both at Saratoga.

Although both still need to prove themselves as older horses, I expect them to be ready to fire strong shots on Saturday, and another 1-2 finish would come as no surprise. On this track and at this distance, Fierceness deserves to be the favorite, but the TimeformUS pace projector is calling for strong early fractions, which would help the chances of Sierra Leone.

Matt: You mention the anticipated Whitney pace that could favor Sierra Leone. It seems that Chad Brown took the matter into his own hands when he entered Contrary Thinking in the race. He is a 5-year-old owned by Peter Brant, who also is one of the owners of Sierra Leone. Contrary Thinking was a front-end winner of a recent one-mile Aqueduct allowance. Brant and Brown seem to be going old school by entering a rabbit to help speed up the pace.

Brian: White Abarrio remains a bit of a classy enigma. Now 6, the handsome gray has been good enough to win Grade 1 races such as the Florida Derby, Whitney, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus World Cup over the years, but you just never can be certain when he will be at his best.

The Met Mile (G1) on a wet track likely gave neither Fierceness nor White Abarrio the best opportunity behind the strong early speed of Raging Torrent, but perhaps the veteran is just a step behind his younger rivals these days. Still, I cannot count out White Abarrio, and it would be nice to see him at his best on Saturday to see where he fits among the best older horses in America.

Matt: With exception of 2023, when White Abarrio was at the peak of his career and won the Whitney and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, those are the only two times that the 6-year-old grey horse won outside of Florida. The other eight times he visited the winner’s circle at Gulfstream Park. So the win count for White Abarrio is eight at Gulfstream and one each at Saratoga and Santa Anita. In 2025, he has two wins at Gulfstream in the Pegasus World Cup and the Ghostzapper (G3) and a fourth in the Met Mile at Saratoga.

Brian: I think three others in the Whitney deserve mention, Matt. A son of Curlin, Highland Falls might still have room for improvement. A winner of 6-of-11 lifetime, he looked very good in winning last season’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), which was his only previous race at Saratoga. With a nice prep under his belt, he could be a factor here. As much as I like the nine-time graded-stakes winner Skippylongstocking, I just don’t feel like this is the best spot for him to excel.

And finally you have Post Time. Another favorite of mine, he runs plenty of good races, none better than his rallying second in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). He also was third in this race last year. If the pace is strong, he should come running, but can he really outkick Sierra Leone? I just don’t know.

Matt: Let me go back to Fierceness, who will have a couple of strong statistics in his favor. At Saratoga, Fierceness has a record of 4: 3-1-0 with wins in his first career start, the Jim Dandy and the Travers. The second-place finish was in the Met Mile. At the 1 1/8-miles distance of the Whitney, Fierceness won his only two tries in the Florida Derby and the Jim Dandy.

No matter how you look at it, the Whitney field is strong with eight horses who already have career earnings over the $1 million mark. Eight of them are graded-stakes winners, and five have a Grade 1 win.

Brian: It’s always fun to take to the turf. It’s a shame there is not greater quality in American grass racing, but this week at Saratoga I believe we have a good one. The $750,000 Fourstardave at a flat mile brings together an eclectic group of talented horses in what should be an excellent betting race.

The race’s favorite is Johannes, and deservedly so. His turf record is beyond reproach. In 10 lifetime starts on the grass, the son of Nyquist has won eight and run well in the other two, including a solid second in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. There is reason to take a shot against the favorite here, however, as he will be making his first start of the year and he never has won outside of California.

Matt: Interesting move by trainer Tim Yakteen to send Johannes to Saratoga. Team Johannes easily could have taken the same path as last year when he won the Eddie Read (G2) and the City of Light (G2) on the way to the Breeders’ Cup, which is in California again.

Although Johannes ran well following layoffs in the past, starting his 2025 campaign against some of the best turf horses in the east in this prestigious Grade 1 will not be easy.

Brian: If you try to beat Johannes, the options are plenty in the Fourstardave. Deterministic has flat out been on a roll this season. Despite being a graded-stakes winner on the dirt, it became clear that he is best on grass last season, and he has been even better this year at 4. A romping win in the Fort Marcy (G2) and a determined score in the Manhattan (G1) make him a real candidate to be America’s best turf horse this year. His speed gives him an advantage, but will that still be true at the tricky one-mile distance?

Matt: Brian, you know that I have been on the Deterministic bandwagon since he moved from dirt to turf last summer. A mile on the turf produces horses such as Johannes who specialize in those races. Deterministic ran particularly well at nine furlongs with three graded-stakes wins, but he looked good at a mile on both dirt and turf.

Brian: Think Big, Intellect and Win for the Money all exit the local Kelso Stakes (G3), where they ran 1-2-3. The winner has been doing great things sprinting of late and appeared well-suited to the bump up in distance to one mile in his latest. He is clearly a threat to win another for the powerhouse Godolphin group.

Intellect is another one of those talented European imports to land in the barn of Chad Brown. It seems like the fillies he gets are a little stronger than the males, generally speaking, but it’s hard to throw this one out. Win for the Money is a classy veteran who at his best can compete with the best. He could offer solid value here to spice up the exotics.

Matt: Think Big handled the turf mile well in the Kelso, but he got a very fast setup that day, which was perfect for his late winning move. The horses from the Kelso are facing much better in the Fourstardave.

Brian: Handicapping this race, I do expect a lively early pace, which could set things up for a horse to pick up the pieces. Spirit of St Louis and Cugino look like two good candidates to do that. The former is a classy veteran who already has two Grade 1 wins this season. He should appreciate the faster pace he sees here as opposed to last time out in the Manhattan.

Cugino, meanwhile, was a solid and consistent 3-year-old last year who might be ready to take things up a notch this year at 4. I like the way he finished in his seasonal debut. He will be looking for his third straight win with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons.

Matt: I spent the first three weeks of the meeting at Saratoga and found myself marveling at the skills of Irad Ortiz. There is nothing surprising when Irad wins lots of races at Saratoga. Typically, jockeys win races when they ride good horses, and Ortiz rides plenty of them. This summer I saw him make a significant difference in the performance of his mounts. He made them better, and they won.

In one claiming race, Irad was riding a horse who in 10 starts this year had the appearance of one who could not find his way to the winner’s circle, with plenty of seconds and thirds. This horse had eight jockeys in those recent starts. Irad got on board for the first time and he looked like a winner every step of the way as he sat in a stalking position and went right by the leader down the stretch.

Lesson learned. At Saratoga, ignore Irad Ortiz at your own peril.

Brian: It’s hard to ignore the top two in the Whitney. Despite the fact that they both lost their last race, I think they showed enough to believe that they will be at their best on Saturday. The pace should suit Sierra Leone, but I know Fierceness loves this Saratoga surface. I am going to go with the 2-year-old champ over the 3-year-old champ here, expecting another heady ride from Johnny V. My play will include both Sierra Leone and Post Time underneath. Fierceness is my top pick in the Whitney.

Matt: I agree about the Whitney that there seems to be very little separating Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Fierceness loves Saratoga and the nine-furlong distance. Sierra Leone needs the right pace scenario and it looks like that is going to happen. The distance is the deciding factor for me, so Fierceness is my top pick.

Brian: Value abounds in the Fourstardave, and I will not fight it. I see a number of potential winners, and of them, Cugino has the best morning-line odds. I expect him to be better at 4 than he was at 3. He also should appreciate sharp early fractions, which I expect to see in this one-mile affair. And finally, he has not lost with Irad in the saddle. At 10-1 on the morning line, his odds are too good to pass up. Cugino is my top pick in the Fourstardave.

Matt: I am not sure about how fast the early pace is going to be. Yes, there are horses who prefer to run on the front end like Deterministic and My Boy Prince but I don’t know about sharp early fractions. The pace projector puts Think Big in second in the early going and does not label the race as red. Deterministic is a proven Grade 1 winner, and the other pace possibilities are not. At 9-2 on the morning line, Deterministic is my top pick.