HorseCenter: Triple Crown 2025 recap, Delaware Oaks top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman close the door on their 2025 Triple Crown coverage with a look back at a most intriguing series, which was dominated by a pair of impressive young colts in Sovereignty and Journalism.

Like the Kentucky Derby, Saturday’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga came down to the big two, and once again it was Sovereignty who would not be denied with his powerful stretch drive at Saratoga. Baeza completed the trifecta for a repeat top three from the first leg.

Matt and Brian also take their first look of the year at scenic Delaware Park, where five stakes races will be run as part of a strong Saturday afternoon card. The inaugural running of the Delaware Derby has drawn a nice field, but it overlaps with Monmouth’s Pegasus Stakes. So the HorseCenter veterans will feature the Grade 3, $300,000 Delaware Oaks as their race of the week.

Brian: Speed figures are one thing, but I believe that a big part of class is demonstrated through consistency at a high level, and that is exactly what we witnessed in the Belmont Stakes. Say what you will about the lack of tradition in running the final leg of the Triple Crown at 1 1/4 miles upstate, but Saratoga draws strong fields and so it was on Saturday. The fact that the Kentucky Derby was validated by a repeat performance by the top three gives me strong belief that this is a very good crop of 3-year-old males. And the way that Sovereignty finished off the victory in such an impressive fashion adds to my appreciation for him and the horses closest to him.

Matt: Despite heavy rain in the morning at Saratoga that did not end until after the noon hour, there was a late-arriving, big crowd that numbered over 46,000. Saratoga is a big facility, but it was very crowded walking around the splendid track as the Belmont approached. The current version of Saratoga combines the traditions of the old track with appropriate modernizations. Hopefully that will be the case when the new Belmont Park opens in the fall of 2026.

Brian: Since getting two turns for the first time in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) last October at Churchill Downs in his third career start, Sovereignty has been a classic horse in every sense of the word. Bill Mott prepped the sculpted son of Into Mischief in Florida to peak for the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, and Sovereignty responded in a big way. His win Saturday was even more impressive to me than that of five weeks earlier. How good might he become if he continues to improve with maturity? As for the Preakness, it would have been nice to have him there, and I hope it is a trend that does not become the norm. But it did allow Journalism the opportunity to shine.

Matt: In person you cannot help but be impressed by the big and powerful physique of Sovereignty. The Godolphin homebred was masterfully trained by the Mott, who had his horses ready to run during the Belmont Stakes racing festival. He had four winners in the five-day meeting, including a pair of first-time starters, and he is not known to win with debut runners very often.

The connections of Sovereignty stuck to what worked for them. He had five weeks between his second-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1) to the Kentucky Derby, and they chose to put another five weeks between races and pass on the Preakness. Journalism’s trainer Michael McCarthy knew that Sovereignty would be tough to beat. As he said after the race, “Anytime good horses get space in between their races, they are very, very dangerous.”

Brian: Sovereignty is the biggest star from the series, but I find it so easy to appreciate what Journalism did during the five weeks. A winner of three straight graded-stakes races in good style coming in, the athletic son of Curlin has not a thing to be ashamed of in his three runs in Louisville, Baltimore and New York. In fact, there have not been many horses who ran better in all three races in the current century. A Triple Crown winner if not for one horse, Journalism also might be the type who wants a target to run at in the stretch rather than being the hunted. In any regard, his Preakness was magical, and don’t forget the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be in Southern California this fall, giving him home-field advantage.

Matt: What Journalism did in the Triple Crown was so impressive to finish second, first and then second again in three of our country’s most prestigious races. This year’s series makes me think about 1978, when it was Affirmed and Alydar who were head and heels better than the rest. One based in the west and the other in the east. Not sure how many more times we will see Journalism and Sovereignty meet, but I sure hope that it is more than less.

Brian: It was the Sovereignty-and-Journalism show, but I think we also saw a number of good horses behind them. Very solid performances from Baeza and Gosger, in particular, further my appreciation of what we witnessed from beginning to end in this year’s Triple Crown. I still believe both beautifully bred colts have a big upside. Baeza is still showing greenness, but he has strung together three very good races in a row. And Gosger turned in a big performance in the middle jewel with very little experience to support him. Both are in good hands, and I look forward to seeing what they can do through maturity almost as much as I want to see more from the top two.

All in all, this year’s Triple Crown series impressed me more than anything I’ve seen going back a decade to American Pharoah, Frosted, Firing Line, Dortmund and Keen Ice.

Matt: Let me move away from the Triple Crown to talk about one of the other special happenings at the June Saratoga meeting. Not much time had gone by since the passing of trainer Christophe Clement, who was a feature of racing in New York and a past winner of the Belmont Stakes. His son Miguel, who was a young assistant trainer to his father, took over the large barn of talented horses. During the meeting, Miguel won three races with the Clement runners. He won a pair of maiden special weights and then on Sunday got a Grade 1 victory in the Manhattan with Deterministic.

Brian: It’s nice to see Delaware Park have such a nice card early in the meet. It’s one of my old favorites, and if you’ve never visited before, I highly recommend making the trip. They’ve run the Delaware Oaks since 1938 and outstanding winners include Gallorette, Dark Mirage, Gallant Bloom, Desert Vixen and Blind Luck.

This year’s edition has attracted a field of nine sophomore fillies led by the recent winner of the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), Margie’s Intention. Trained by Brad Cox, the Louisiana-bred daughter of Honor A. P. has finished first or second in all five tries around two turns with her only losses at a mile or more coming at the hands of Blue Prize. She also h also proven adept on sloppy tracks like she found last time at Pimlico.

Matt: The field of nine for the Delaware Oaks features four 3-year-old fillies who are allowance winners, four who are stakes winners, and only Margie’s Intention is a graded-stakes winner. She will have a rider change to Luan Machado Because Flavien Prat, who rode her in the Black-Eyed Susan, will not make the trip to Delaware but instead will ride at Monmouth Park for the Haskell preview day.

Brian: The two fillies who ran second and third behind Margie’s Intention four weeks ago, Paris Lily and Kinzie Queen, will follow her to Delaware to take another shot at the likely favorite. The former is all about speed and will look to take the field gate to wire on Saturday for trainer Brendan Walsh. Kinzie Queen, on the other hand, is a deep closer who will attempt to pick them all up in the stretch run. Both have run several good races and are threats once again here.

Matt: The pace projector for the Delaware Oaks shows a neutral pace with Paris Lily and Complexity Jane as the most likely fillies to go to the lead right out of the starting gate, and Kinzie Queen is rated as a deep closer.

Brian: Of the horses not coming out of the Black-Eyed Susan, a trio of lightly raced fillies all merit respect. Cassiar, Complexity Jane and Fondley each have three times, and all of them have stakes experience. Cassiar runs for Shug McGaughey and after finishing a well-beaten third in the Gulfstream Oaks (G2) in her second career start, she came back to win a strong allowance at Aqueduct last time.

Fondly exits a poor result in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but this is an easier spot and she did win the Virginia Oaks in her second career start for trainer Graham Motion. Finally, Complexity Jane is unbeaten in three starts, although she did need a disqualification in her second start to get the victory. Last time she made the most of her speed in the Weber City Miss Stakes at Laurel Park.

Matt: Cassiar is going to have to deal with the speed of Paris Lily, and Shug McGaughey’s barn has not been winning stakes races as often as it has in the past. Complexity Jane is going to face pressure if she tries to win from the front end again, and the 1 1/16-mile distance looks like it is pushing her distance limitations. Fondly certainly can get a pass for her poor performance in what was only her third start in the Kentucky Oaks on a track that was sealed and rated wet-fast. It is encouraging that Irad Ortiz Jr. will travel to Delaware to stay on board the Graham Motion runner.

Brian: I easily could make a case for any of the six fillies I mentioned here, Matt. Hopefully, I can find good value in this wide-open edition of the Delaware Oaks. I gave Cassiar a long look, but decided that she might be better with Lasix. I have landed on Kinzie Queen, hoping that she can get enough early pace to set the table for her late run. Her last two are her best yet, and keeping Junior Alvarado is a positive on a filly who once again should offer nice value. I will use her on top and underneath in the exotics. Kinzie Queen is my top pick in the Delaware Oaks.

Matt: I am going to give Fondly another chance as she was my top pick in the Kentucky Oaks. There is every reason to think that she will appreciate the softer competition in this field at Delaware Park with only three other stakes winners. I expect Fondly to sit more of a stalking trip, which should be ideal in this field as a few horses will go out front to set the pace. A dry, fast track certainly would help her chances to win. Fondly is my top choice to win the Oaks at Delaware.