HorseCenter: The return of Nitrogen + Southwest top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman turn their attention to an extended weekend of stakes racing from beautiful Oaklawn. Because of recent weather postponements, the Hot Springs oval will run eight stakes races from Thursday through Sunday. A full field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls in Friday’s $1 million, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and the return of the champion Nitrogen in Saturday’s Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes will headline the weekend of racing.

Strategic Risk, coming off back-to-back impressive stakes scores at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park, is the horse to beat in the Southwest, but there are plenty of other interesting options in the Kentucky Derby points race. Recent maiden winner D'code and the Bob Baffert-trained Buetane also should receive plenty of betting support on Friday.

When last seen, Nitrogen was closing out an excellent sophomore campaign by finishing second to the older Scylla in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) at Del Mar. The freshly minted champion will be making her first start in three months against six other older females in the 1 1/16-mile Bayakoa for trainer Mark Casse.

Top picks for Friday’s Withers from last week’s HorseCenter.

Brian: I know she just won the Eclipse Award as the champion 3-year-old filly of 2025, but I still wonder if Nitrogen gets as much respect as she deserves after a dozen consecutive strong races to begin her career. The bay daughter of Medaglia d’Oro can do it all. Never out of the money in her career, she is unquestionably of Grade 1 quality on both turf and dirt. 

After a solid juvenile season when she finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, she developed into a champion last year. Winning four stakes at distances from a mile to 10 furlongs, she was a standout on the turf before proving every bit as good on the main track. Even though she was beaten in her final two starts last season, those second-place finishes against older mares in the Spinster (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Distaff underscored her class.  

Matt: Nitrogen shows up at Oaklawn with a career record that has top three finishes in all 12 of her starts. With six wins, four seconds and two thirds, she already has earned $2.04 million. Nitrogen finished second in her only start in a maiden race as a 2-year-old and then moved to the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine and the Breeders’ Cup. She broke her maiden in her first start as a 3-year-old in the Ginger Brew at Gulfstream Park, which began a five-race winning streak.

Brian: Having sung the praises of Nitrogen, I now will do a partial about-face. The heavy favorite is certainly beatable as she returns for her first start as an older horse. Fillies sometimes don’t come back as well as older mares, and she had a long and tough campaign in 2025. Having said that, she is working well for her trainer, who has been winning races in bunches so far this year, and is clearly the class of the race.

Matt: The Bayakoa offers a $250,000 purse and drew a field of seven in which Nitrogen is the only Grade 1 winner. After wrapping up her championship year, she spent time at Casse’s Florida training center. She was not away from serious work for long as she posted two breezes there before shipping to Oaklawn. The Bayakoa is the first stop in a campaign in Arkansas that probably includes the big money in the $1.25 million Apple Blossom (G1) on April 11.

Brian: If you are willing to take a shot against Nitrogen in the Bayakoa, the most likely candidates to spring the upset are Quietside and Nerazurri. 

Quietside has a strong record at Oaklawn, having won two graded stakes at the track in 2025 on her way to the Kentucky Oaks. The Honeybee and Fantasy winner faded late in the filly classic at Churchill Downs and then did not return for nearly six months. She has had two races since her return, with the second being a solid second two months ago in the Comely (G3). Back at her favorite track, she should be considered a real threat on Saturday. 

Matt: Quietside is the only other graded-stakes winner in the Bayakoa field. She showed promise from the get-go with a debut maiden victory at Saratoga as a 2-year-old. She then tangled with the best juvenile fillies and 3-year-olds in a series of graded stakes. Quietside certainly enjoyed her stay at Oaklawn last year and has been based at Belmont Park with trainer John Ortiz as she prepared for her first start against older horses on Saturday.

Brian: As for Nerazurri, she also runs for the Casse barn but does not have near the credentials of her champion stablemate. What she does have is good early speed and strong recent form. Second in the Princess Rooney (G3) in September, she has two recent wins at Oaklawn, one sprinting and most recently at the 1 1/16-mile distance she will see here. 

Matt: Nerazurri got her only stakes victory with a front-end effort in an overnight race at Oaklawn on her first day as a 4-year-old. To her credit she did face older horses five times last year. Nerazurri finds a field in the Bayakoa that is pretty much void of any early speed.

Brian: Turning to the Southwest, Strategic Risk was a good-looking winner of the recent Smarty Jones in his first start at Oaklawn and is clearly a threat to win another one. He stalked a slow pace five weeks ago and took over the race on his way to an easy win. The son of Noble Bird has looked good since stretching out on the dirt, but things promise to be more difficult this time around. Both the early pace and the level of competition figure to be stronger on Friday. The faster pace might not be a big concern, as he has proven the ability to pass horses, but the faster competition could be his undoing in the Southwest.

Matt: The Southwest drew a full field who were certainly attracted by the $1 million purse just as much as the 42 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Still, the field has only one stakes winner, Strategic Risk. He won 10 Derby points for his victory in the Smarty Jones a month ago at Oaklawn. He is joined in the Southwest by the second-, third- and fifth-place finishers from that first prep race in Arkansas. In total, seven 3-year-olds in this field have experience on the Derby trail.

Brian: Baffert is always a big threat when he ships into Oaklawn, and he seems to have a talented horse in Buetane. Last time he broke a bit slow and chased a fast pace, ultimately finishing a solid second to a very talented horse. With three promising sprints under his belt, he should be involved throughout here, but a fast early pace likely would make his task more difficult. As a son of Tiz the Law, I suspect the move to two turns will not be a problem. He is a major contender.

Matt: Baffert’s original plan was for Buetane to run in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park last weekend, but bad weather cancelled his transportation. A change of plans by the Hall of Fame trainer puts Buetane into the Southwest field while Litmus Test, the winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on the Derby trail, was scratched. Baffert’s 3-year-olds usually bring early speed to these prep races, so Buetane figures to be part of a projected fast pace.

Brian: Strategic Risk and Buetane both have solid stakes experience, but D’code has none. With only a six-furlong maiden race to his credit, it would seem that this big and speedy Southwest field is a rather large ask. Having said that, his maiden performance over the track eight weeks ago was quite impressive. Note that Reclamation came back to win nicely after unsuccessfully locking horns with D’code in their respective debuts.

There are several other interesting prospects in the Southwest field, including Soldier N Diplomat and Liberty National. I believe the former is a talented colt, but with the speed in the race and his outside post, I am not excited to bet him here. As for Liberty National, he could be a real threat coming from off the pace. He has progressed nicely in three lifetime starts, and this pace could set up well for the son of Maxfield.

Matt: With that fast time and impressive speed figure, D’code beat the 11-horse maiden field by more than eight lengths. His lack of experience is a concern, but in fairness to the homebred son of Speightstown, seven others have only a maiden victory to their credit. Also of concern is that he will have to carry that early speed around two turns.

Silent Tactic is another interesting horse with stakes and Derby trail experience. Trained by Mark Casse, who is winning at 48% at the Oaklawn meeting, he began his career at Woodbine. Silent Tactic was a debut winner going the Southwest distance and was then second in the Gray (G3). He transitioned to the dirt nicely when he rallied to be second in the Smarty Jones.

Brian: In the Bayakoa, I recognize Nitrogen as the most likely winner. She is the class of the race and the champion has been working well after a brief freshening. But how low will her odds be on Saturday? Meanwhile, Quietside will be making her third start off a layoff and seems to be coming up to this race the right way. It’s hard to ignore her two graded-stakes victories when last seen at Oaklawn. Because of the chasm in odds, Quietside is my top pick in the Bayakoa.

Matt: Short odds or not, Nitrogen was such an impressive filly last year and never ran a bad race. The gap between her and the others is probably too much to overcome. Her ownership group of D J Stable is led by my New Jersey acquaintances Len and Jon Green. Nitrogen is my Bayakoa top pick.

Brian: This big Southwest field is a pretty tricky race to handicap. The three favorites are all in with a chance, but I do see vulnerabilities in each. Throw in the likelihood of a fast pace, and I will side with more value in this one. Circle Tap looked good in overcoming trouble last time for Dallas Stewart and will be included in my tickets, but I like Liberty National the best. Working well since his runner-up finish in the Gun Runner, he looks to be developing nicely. He is bred to want distance, and he should benefit from a strong pace. Liberty National is my top pick. 

Matt: I agree that the large field makes the Southwest a tricky handicapping affair. With a fast pace expected, I too will land on a late runner at a price. Silent Traffic ran well at Oaklawn in the Smarty Jones and stayed to continue on the Arkansas road to the Kentucky Derby. Casse runs them when they are doing well, and he is listed at 20-1 on the morning line. Use my Southwest long-shot top pick Silent Tactic to win and underneath.