HorseCenter: Top picks for Stephen Foster, Wise Dan

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman visit Churchill Downs for a huge card of racing topped by the Grade 1, $1 million Stephen Foster. No less than six millionaires are in the field, with last year’s champion 3-year-old male Sierra Leone and the highly regarded Mindframe likely to vie for favoritism. 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show lead the opposition in the star-studded, 1 1/8-mile affair.

The second race covered in detail by your HorseCenter hosts will be the $500,000 Wise Dan Stakes (G2). The one-mile test on the turf has attracted a wide-open field of nine. A rematch between Mercante and Brilliant Berti after their heated stretch duel in the Arlington (G3) is the headliner, but several others led by Mi Hermano Ramon and Fort Washington are in with a chance. 

Matt and Brian also discuss some of the other highlights from this loaded afternoon of racing under the famed twin spires. Highlighting the undercard will be the 2024 horse of the year Thorpedo Anna. The 4-year-old filly will look to return to her winning ways when she tops the $500,000 Fleur de Lis (G2).

Brian: Before we get into handicapping two excellent races, let’s talk about some of the other highlights from this excellent card of racing. Although she has won 10-of-13 lifetime, including six Grade 1 victories, Thorpedo Anna might be at a crossroad in her career. She was banged pretty hard heading into the first turn of the La Troienne (G1) and came up empty when the real running began. Will she bounce back on Saturday? 

I expect to see the 2024 horse of the year come back with a strong effort after eight weeks between races. Gin Gin, Royal Spa and Taxed all come into this one off strong graded-stakes form, but if Thorpedo Anna runs her race, they will all be running for place money. Some people already have given up on the champion after a whopping one-race losing streak. I believe that will be proven a mistake.

Matt: Winning streaks are so rare in Thoroughbred racing that even the best horses lose. Sometimes when a horse is in top form and is expected to win, they can still lose because of bad racing luck.

In the case of Thorpedo Anna’s loss in the La Troienne, trainer Kenny McPeek was quick to take the blame for bringing her back with only three weeks of rest. So the champion has a valid excuse for her performance on the first Friday in May. I expect her to bounce back to her winning ways with almost two months between starts this time, although you just never know what might happen.

Brian: Two other highlights on Saturday’s six-stakes card include Booth and Tiztastic. The former has looked like one of the top sprinters in the country while winning four straight stakes for trainer Steve Asmussen. He should get a good test in the 6 1/2-furlong Kelly’s Landing. Among his competition is a classy invader from the West Coast, Dr. Venkman. The 5-year-old gelding made a nice return to the races last time, finishing second to the talented Nysos at Santa Anita.

Meanwhile in the American Derby, Tiztastic will return to the turf where he is unbeaten in two tries. The son of Tiz the Law had trouble when finishing mid-pack in the Kentucky Derby last time, but before that he showed his class as the winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2). It’s interesting that he is switching back to turf now, and it could be a sign that he is even better on the grass. Last-out stakes winners Reagan’s Wit and Freedom’s Not Free should give him a real test here.

Matt: Booth is riding an impressive winning streak that includes a trio of Grade 3 stakes at Oaklawn and Pimlico. He had a layoff from April to December and now has run seven times in the last six months. Steve Asmussen knows how to keep older horses in top form as well as any trainer in the country.

I want to give a shout out to Three Technique, who joins Booth in the Kelly’s Landing. The 8-year-old has 40 starts in his career with earnings of $1.2 million. He has moved from allowances to stakes and got his second graded stakes in September in the Ack Ack (G3).

Brian: With six very classy older males in the field, this edition of the Stephen Foster should be a fun one. Despite losing his only start this year, I still consider Sierra Leone the one to beat. The Breeders’ Cup Classic winner was against the pace dynamic last time, and I expect him to do better on Saturday. Having said that, he will have to against this field. The good news is that the confirmed late runner will have more pace to set up his rally here.

Matt: This is an excellent running of the Foster with a field that has six graded-stakes winners and each has over $1 million in earnings. Four of them have at least one victory in a Grade or Group 1, including the winner of America’s two most important races in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Together the field from the older male dirt division has 38 wins and has won $25.8 million on the track.

Brian: If Sierra Leone is not the favorite in the Foster then it will be Mindframe. He has done little wrong in his six-race career and comes in off a sharp victory in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) last time. He is unbeaten at Churchill Downs and the son of Constitution should have no problem with the stretch out back to nine furlongs. He never could get past Dornoch in his two longest races last year, but we might see a more mature version of the Repole runner on Saturday.

Matt: Brian, I feel like if there is a horse in this Foster field who has not had his best race it would be Mindframe. With only six career starts, he is a Grade 1 winner. He began his career with two open-length victories. He ran well when he lost to Dornoch, the best 3-year-old at the time, in the Haskell (G1) and the Belmont Stakes. Mindframe won both of his 2025 races, and that seven-furlong Grade 1 win on the first Saturday in May sets him up perfectly to face the challenge of the Foster.

Brian: I generally am not a fan of horses making their first start since Dubai against strong competition, but it’s hard to ignore Hit Show. Not only does the experienced son of Candy Ride like to win, but he has also won five straight races when Florent Geroux is in the saddle. They will pair up again as they did in the winning venture of the $12 million Dubai World Cup. He will not be my top pick, but he must be respected.

Matt: I definitely consider Hit Show to be a win contender. After that lucrative victory in the Dubai World Cup, he is the leading money winner in this field with $8.4 million in career earnings. He has eight top-three finishes in his last nine starts at six tracks around the world. But in this accomplished field, I have to say that I like others better in the top spot.

Brian: Ignore the Kentucky Derby winner at your own risk. His memorable score over Sierra Leone and Forever Young in last year’s run for the roses came over this main track at Churchill Downs, and last time out in the Blame Stakes (G3) he proved that he likes this surface. After going off form for a few races, the son of Goldencents is back and is a dangerous horse in this loaded field.

Matt: Mystik Dan got the monkey off his back as a Kentucky Derby winner who had yet to record another victory. He did it with style when he won the Blame and appears to be back in top form. He will have to be and, he probably needs to show even more to be a win contender in this year’s salty Foster field.

Brian: It’s taken a while to get to them, but First Mission and Skippylongstocking cannot be forgotten. They are experienced, multiple graded-stakes winners, and they come in off nice wins. Either one could find themselves on the lead on Saturday. If the favorites spend too much time waiting for these two to come back to them, they could be in for a rude awakening.

Matt: Skippylongstocking just keeps rolling along. As a 6-year-old, he already has a pair of graded-stakes wins, upping his victory total to 11. Even though Skippy has run well in Grade 1 stakes, he has yet to win one and this field is no soft spot.

First Mission comes to Churchill after one of his best races when he won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) by two lengths, earning the best speed figure of his career in a field that included Skippylongstocking. First Mission joins his stablemate Hit Show to give Brad Cox a dynamic duo with combined earnings of $10.4 million.

Brian: Off his hard-earned victory over Brilliant Berti last time in the Arlington Stakes, Mercante deserves favoritism in the Wise Dan on Saturday. In fact, the son of Gun Runner has delivered three consecutive excellent performances in graded-stakes company, with his only recent loss coming when a strong second to Spirit of St Louis in the Turf Classic (G1). Having said all that, it doesn’t get any easier here as he drops down to a mile and faces several worthy foes. With strong tactical speed, he should be involved throughout.

Matt: The Wise Dan goes as race 10 and shows up on the projector as a race with a pace that should be fair for horses who like to be part of the pace or those who do their best running late. Mercante is projected to be on the lead even though he is a horse who typically presses the pace rather than being out front. The son of Gun Runner does have three victories going a mile, one in his maiden breaker on the Aqueduct turf and the other two in Turfway Park allowances on the synthetic track.

Brian: Brilliant Berti found himself in uncharted territory last time when he went out to the early lead in a race without much pace. He ran on well but was unable to hold off Mercante in deep stretch. Back to his favorite trip of one mile, look for him to rate off the speed this time and come with his typical run. He also gets a little weight shift this time on Mercante and should be in a good position to turn the tables on Saturday. 

Matt: Brilliant Berti is by far the leading money winner in the Wise Dan with $1.8 million in earnings from 10 starts, and the 4-year-old has four stakes victories. He won the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs, which had a $1.4 million purse.

Brian: This should set up as a nice betting race with several other graded-stakes winners in the Wise Dan field who are dangerous. The California-based Mi Hermano Ramon has found little luck of late but continues to run good races for trainer Mark Glatt. He looked like a winner last time in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) before a late charge by King of Gosford overtook him late.

Taking Candy, Lagynos and Fort Washington are also graded-stakes winners who could take this with their best on Saturday. The latter has little early speed but is in the best form of his career for trainer Shug McGaughey. The winner of two straight graded stakes likely will need a strong early pace to have a big chance of getting up at the flat mile distance.

Matt: Taking Candy comes to the race as a stablemate of Brilliant Berti from the barn of Cherie DeVaux. Although he did not do much running in the Turf Clasic (G1) behind Spirit of St Louis and Mercante, he is a winner of the Fair Grounds (G3). Taking Candy has shown that he can make a big closing move or press the pace and has the look of a horse to use in the exotics with better odds.

Brian: There should be no excuses in the $1 million Stephen Foster. All the main participants, and there are six of them, have at least one race under their belts and are training well. There is also enough early speed to set up a fair race. With that said, I will be playing the horse who I believe to be best in what looks to be one of the best races of the year so far. The champion 3-year-old male and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is the one I think is best. Sierra Leone is my top pick.

Matt: I agree, Brian, that Sierra Leone is the horse to beat in the Foster. I am willing to take a chance on Mindframe, hoping that his victory in the Churchill Downs last month brings him to this race 100% fit and ready to take another step forward. He might be racing for second if Sierra Leone is ready to roll, but Mindframe is my top pick.

Brian: With a nearly perfect record over the Churchill Downs turf course, I see the Wise Dan as a great opportunity to play Brilliant Berti. Coming off a narrow defeat in a race where he ran very well, and with several others getting bet, the odds should be right on Saturday. He is tactical enough to be in touch early and then can kick home ahead of the deep closers. One mile is his best distance. Brilliant Berti is my top pick.

Matt: The Wise Dan looks like an interesting tactical race for Brilliant Berti and Mercante. Berti does his best when he makes a late move, and Mercante prefers to press the pace. Brian Hernandez Jr. will have to be careful to not get too far behind Mercante, who is likely to get to the lead whenever he chooses. Mercante has more speed, and that gives him the advantage. My top pick is Mercante.