HorseCenter: State of American turf racing, Alabama top picks

This week on HorseCenter Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take stock of the American turf scene. Led by classy runners such as Deterministic and She Feels Pretty, can the American side find success at the Breeders’ Cup this fall at Del Mar, or will Europe dominate once again? 

The veteran Fort Washington led the charge on Saturday for the domestic grass runners with an exciting win in the Arlington Million (G1), but the Europeans countered when El Cordobes won the Sword Dancer (G1) in his first start in the United States.

Meanwhile at Saratoga, Good Cheer will look to rebound from her first career loss when she headlines the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes. The Kentucky Oaks winner had her seven-race winning streak snapped when fifth in the Acorn Stakes (G1) last time. Standing in her way in the historic Alabama include a strong duo from the barn of Mark Casse in multiple graded stakes winners La Cara and Nitrogen.

Brian: It brings me no joy to admit that European-based runners have absolutely dominated the American runners at the world championships for years now. In our biggest race of all, the Breeders’ Cup Turf, they have won nine of the last 10 runnings with only Bricks and Mortar back in 2019 standing in the way of a perfect score for the Euros. 

On the bright side, North Americans did do better in 2024. More Than Looks was able to break through with a powerful stretch kick at Del Mar which carried him to victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile - a race European-based runners had won four times in a row - and an all-American exacta along with Johannes. And I am going to count the Canadian Moira, who did most of her running last year in the U.S. and won the Filly & Mare Turf, as a victory for North America. Could these results be a sign of good things to come, or are we heading to a skunking this year at the Breeders’ Cup?

Matt: It is probably a positive factor that the Breeders’ Cup is in California again this year. The turf courses out west tend to be different enough from those in Europe that it gives the Americans some kind of advantage. With rain infrequent at Del Mar the turf will be much harder than the softer grass that the Euros frequent. The grass is also cut much shorter at the west coast tracks.

Brian: In recent weeks, we have seen some important American races run on the grass and it’s been a mixed bag. I remain high on She Feels Pretty even though she was nosed out by the Irish import Excellent Truth in the Diana. The latter is now in the Chad Brown barn and is a serious mare, but She Feels Pretty is the one I am most interested in moving forward. Trained by Cherie DeVaux, the Karakontie 4-year-old filly is all class and had four nice stakes wins in a row before the near miss in the Diana. She also has already won out in California and seems comfortable at any distance. She should give the U.S. a big shot this year in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Matt: DeVaux has the right Breeders’ Cup pedigree having been a top assistant of Browns for many years. With a talented turfer like She Feels Pretty she has a good chance to win at the world championships in her first try.

Brian: Another bright spot for the American turf scene has been the rise of Deterministic. Matt, I know you have been high on this one since his Gotham (G3) win last spring and clearly his potential has been realized since switching to the grass. He is another horse who appears to be good at different distances, but the one-mile trip seems to be where he is most interesting. After nice wins in the Fort Marcy (G2) and Manhattan (G1), I thought his recent Fourstardave (G1) victory points him out as a true threat in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Matt: Right now, Deterministic is the best American turf horse male or female. However the competition that he faced this year certainly does not compare to what the Europeans face on a regular basis in their Group rated stakes.

You certainly can not count out Chad Brown in the Breeders’ Cup. He won 19 of the world championship races in a relatively short time with all but five of them coming in turf races.

Brian: On Saturday, I was happy to see Junior Alvarado and Fort Washington sweep to victory late in the Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs. Granted this field was not a strong Grade 1 by any means, but it was nice to see the hard-knocking veteran break through with a big win. At 6, he is clearly in the best form of his career and this was his third graded stakes victory of the year for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. He has joined the conversation for an Eclipse Award to this point, but I don’t see him as a strong candidate for either the Mile or the Turf quite yet.

Matt: Speaking of being in career best form, how about Junior Alvarado? He just continues to win big races around the country with his confidence at a very high level on the heels of his Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes victories with Sovereignty. Last weekend in addition to his Arlington Million victory, he was second in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Colonial. Junior also won the Mahoney (G3) with a thrilling late rally in the turf sprint stakes at Saratoga on Sunday.

Brian: If you are rooting and or betting on the Americans in these big turf races, the Sword Dancer was a disappointment. Rebel Red stepped up with a solid second, but the Europeans ran first and third and the winner El Cordobes was best. The top two are both sons of Frankel, so maybe the superstar stallion was the real story of the Sword Dancer. The big disappointment was Far Bridge, who faded to sixth as a heavy favorite. I thought he was our best shot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but he now looks extremely vulnerable. 

Meanwhile, Rebel’s Romance won another big race over the weekend, this time in Germany. The great gelding looks primed for another run at the Breeders’ Cup Turf. A 7-year-old son of Dubawi bred in Ireland, he has already won the big race twice and could become the first horse ever to win America’s richest turf race three times.

Matt: Far Bridge is a horse that can be difficult to ride and he just did not look comfortable during a trip that was rough at times and had him racing outside and then along the rail. When finally clear and asked to run, Far Bridge came up empty.

Rebel’s Romance is a remarkable horse who just keeps on winning for trainer Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. His career accomplishments are  huge, with 19 victories from 28 starts, including seven Grade or Group 1 stakes and earnings of $14.1 million. He won races on three different continents in six different years. Rebel’s Romance ran in the Breeders’ Cup Turf twice in 2022 and 2024 and won it both times. Connections are eyeing the Turf again this year, so the other turf stars around the world should beware.

Brian: Transitioning from the turf to the dirt, a championship could be won in Saturday’s historic Alabama Stakes. At the very least, I believe a victory by either Good Cheer, La Cara or Nitrogen would give them a real leg up in the race to decide this year’s top 3-year-old filly. All three have proven to be very nice horses, but all three also come with question marks. 

Slightly off topic, but the Alabama remains at 1 1/4-miles, which is good. I can’t think of any other important races for fillies and mares run on the dirt at a distance anymore. In the past, I loved races like the Coaching Club American Oaks, Beldame and Delaware Handicap that tested their distance capabilities. Even the Breeders’ Cup Distaff was a 1 1/4-mile race in the early years.

Matt: In some ways the crucial issue in handicapping the Alabama is the distance. Only one horse in the field has ever run more than 1 1/8-miles and that is the probable long shot Queen Azteca. Most likely that added distance will be a factor coming down the stretch. The question that has to be answered is who will be running at the end and who will be fading?

Brian: Good Cheer deserves favoritism here after beginning her career with seven straight wins, including the Kentucky Oaks. Seemingly strolling toward a championship, she hit a big speed bump last time when showing nothing in the Acorn over a sloppy Saratoga track. It is a puzzling performance at odds of 3-10 that gives serious cause for pause here, especially since she had done so well on two wet tracks previously. As the favorite again, I will not be running to the windows to back her.

Matt: Good Cheer was not just winning seven races in a row she was overwhelming the competition. In the streak the closest any filly got to her was 2 1/4 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. To see her do so little running in the Acorn was a head-scratching performance. Good Cheer did get a little bit of rest in that Brad Cox waited a month before she had a timed workout. Her breezes since then were fast and went without interruption.

Brian: La Cara, meanwhile, did bounce back from a poor performance in the Kentucky Oaks by taking them all the way with authority in the Acorn. She has won twice at Saratoga and is the obvious speed of the race. There is plenty to like about the daughter of Street Sense other than her inconsistency. Her past performances are littered with really good efforts as well as several subpar performances. When she gets cruising on the lead, however, she generally runs well.

Matt: The pace projector points to La Cara as the only horse that has any interest in running on the lead. The Brad Cox runner is a two-time Grade 1 winner and should get loose on the lead under regular rider Dylan Davis. She is third choice on the HorseCenter morning line, but in a field of six do not expect a hefty price.

Brian: The third big name in the Alabama is Nitrogen, and like the first two, it’s hard to predict exactly what you are going to get. It’s not that she is inconsistent, far from it. We just don’t know if she is as good on dirt as she is on turf. A wonderful filly on the grass, she looked very good in winning her only race on dirt. The problem is that it came in a three-horse race moved from the turf to the slop. She is bred to handle dirt, but her ability at this level is still unknown.

Matt: Nitrogen’s victory in the Wonder Again taught us nothing really as turf horses frequently take to wet tracks but not nearly as much as on fast-rated dirt. She was a heavy favorite in her last six starts and it is possible that the Alabama, where she will likely go off at 2-1 or 5-2  she, will see her with the longest odds since she ran third in the Breeders’ Cup as a maiden.

Brian: The other three fillies in the race all have some quality. Kinzie Queen has been running well late in graded stakes, but her lack of speed makes her tough to recommend against this bunch. The Scandinavian filly, Queen Azteca, has been performing well against the boys in Sweden and was quite good in Dubai earlier this year, but she also will likely be too far out of things early. That leaves Margie’s Intention as the most interesting of the longer shots. The Louisiana-bred is consistent, improving, and reuniting with Irad Ortiz, Jr. is a positive. She is in with a chance.

Matt: Those three have some merit, but they are all late-runners that find themselves in a field the lacks much early speed while facing three of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. They are pace compromised and a notch below in the competition that they have faced.

Brian: While I believe this Alabama is an interesting race, I am not overly excited about it as a betting affair. I will land on La Cara as my top selection because of a clear pace advantage. She should have no trouble in getting to the lead here and that has proven where she is most effective. I do worry about her inconsistencies, however, and would not be surprised if Good Cheer, Nitrogen or even Margie’s Intention blow by her in the 10-furlong race. Still, as the second or third choice, there is some value on the lone speed. La Cara is my top pick.

Matt: We are going to end up on the same horse, Brian. However, the Alabama is a difficult betting proposition. The top three of Good Cheer, Nitrogen and La Cara are all worthy win contenders but none of them will offer attractive odds. It is a race that I will only bet as part of the pick 5 wagers which would provide a chance to get a more generous payout. La Cara is my top pick.