HorseCenter: Top picks for 2 Kentucky Derby preps

The road to Kentucky Derby 2026 resumes Saturday as both the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct and the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn offer qualifying points for the first Saturday in May. Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman will offer analysis and top picks for both Derby prep races right now on HorseCenter.

A pair of stakes winners will lead the way in a compact field in New York’s Jerome Stakes. Balboa, coming off a solid third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes for trainer Brittany Russell, is the likely favorite. Meanwhile, Nashua Stakes winner My World looks to be a strong second choice in the one-turn mile.

In Arkansas, a talented group of nine colts are entered in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes. The unbeaten Brad Cox-trained Rancho Santa Fe and the three-time graded stakes placed Universe are expected to vie for favoritism in the 1 1/16-mile feature at Oaklawn Park.

Brian: Before getting into the Derby trail with the Jerome and Smarty Jones, let’s give some credit to the stars of opening day at Santa Anita. Ambaya, Goal Oriented and Usha all became new Grade 1 winners on Sunday, but in my opinion, the race of the afternoon was the Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes (G2) and the showdown between Nysos and Nevada Beach.

The pair of Grade 1 winners came together down the Santa Anita stretch and gave us a memorable finish. It was the older Nysos who refused to lose late and edged out his younger stablemate for his seventh win in eight career races. Both look poised for a strong season in 2026, and for the winner it is expected to begin in the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1).

Matt:  Bob Baffert had five entered in the Malibu (G1), and earlier in that week he said that they all would run. But Baffert did not run Barnes, and Cornucopian was a vet scratch. The remaining three finished first, second and fourth, and they were the top three choices in the wagering. Goal Oriented rallied from last in the seven-horse field and looked like a winner every step of the way. On the day, Baffert won three of the graded stakes with Nysos, Usha and Goal Oriented. Attendance for the opening-day card at Santa Anita was 41,962.

Brian: With the scratch of the streaking Pennsylvania-bred Mailata, the Jerome is down to only four horses. Although that makes it a less attractive betting proposition, the Kentucky Derby points race does offer at least three talented youngsters who should make this an interesting race. 

Off his game and third-place effort in a deep edition of the recent Remsen Stakes, I expect Balboa will be the one who is sent to post as the favorite. Previously trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Not This Time has run two strong races for new trainer Brittany Russell. Before his good performance in the Remsen, he was an easy winner of the James F. Lewis III Stakes at Laurel Park. He also might have the most speed in this short field.

Matt: The pace projector shows Balboa getting the lead, and that certainly would help him navigate the one-turn mile. His two career victories were at six furlongs, and last time in the Remsen as a 29-1 long shot he pressed the pace and got to the lead, but he was was passed in the stretch and beaten by more than three lengths. Balboa is the only horse with previous Derby points earned, four of them from the third in the Remsen and a fifth in the American Pharoah (G1). Russell has had plenty of stakes success shipping to Aqueduct from her base at Laurel.

Brian: Trainer Brad Cox is always a threat, and so it will be in the Jerome with My World. The gray son of Essential Quality has not run a bad race in three career starts and is improving each time. After breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in his second start, he stretched out to a mile and pulled away from his competition in the Nashua Stakes. That victory came with the same trip he will see again on Saturday, and he has enough speed to stay close to Balboa early.

Matt: My World has been part of the New York division of the Brad Cox barn, making all three starts at NYRA tracks. He debuted at Saratoga and finished fourth behind a horse who won his next start and then was sixth on the Derby trail in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). My World won his next two races at Aqueduct and is projected to be stalking Balboa in another one-turn mile.

Brian: Although Balboa and My World are the two most accomplished colts in the Jerome, it’s hard not to take a long look at Enforced Agenda on the rail. The St. Elias Stable homebred was a good-looking winner of his debut over the same course and distance six weeks ago. Trained by George Weaver, he comes from a good female family and will have the services of leading rider Flavien Prat on Saturday.

Matt: Like Balboa and My World, Enforced Agenda has experience at Aqueduct. The track has been playing fairly as the weather turned wintery. Speed is important at the Big A, especially racing around one turn, but closers have done well with the right pace setup. It should be noted that Enforced Agenda, who is a homebred from Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable, was a 23-1 long shot as the rank outsider in an eight-horse field and used a stalking trip to win at a mile. Typically, the word gets out when Weaver has a highly regarded 2-year-old, so the surprise victory might indicate that there is upside with this grey son of Liam’s Map.

Brian: Cox has a strong chance in the Jerome and he will in the Smarty Jones, as well. The morning-line favorite at 5-2, Rancho Santa Fe comes into his stakes debut unbeaten in two starts. The son of Tapit is bred to run all day and looked good finishing off a maiden win at Ellis Park in August. He won in similar fashion in October at Keeneland, and it is worth noting that the horses finishing directly behind him that day both came back to win their next starts. He is clearly a threat for one of the top trainers in America.  

Matt: It sure looks like Cox again has a barn full of potential Kentucky Derby runners who will show up on the Derby trail just like on Saturday. Rancho Santa Fe is a homebred from Gary and Mary West. His dam was a multi-graded-stakes winner as a 3-year-old who also finished third in the Alabama (G1) and earned over $700,000 in her career. Rancho Santa Fe is her third foal, and the other two were winners, including a graded-stakes winner of $800,000.

Brian: I was a little surprised to see that Rancho Santa Fe was tabbed as the morning-line choice, because Universe already is proven against very good horses. A son of Global Campaign, he won nicely at first asking for trainer Kenny McPeek and has since faced tigers in graded stakes in his next three starts. 

I thought his effort last time, rallying strongly up the rail behind Further Ado in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, was especially good. A versatile runner, he should be in good shape on Saturday under Joel Rosario no matter how the early pace unfolds.

Matt: Universe already made three starts on the Derby trail and has 13 qualifying points, which puts him in fifth position on the leaderboard. He faced highly regarded Derby contenders. In the Champagne (G1), Universe was third behind Napoleon Solo, he had the lead in the Street Sense (G3) but was passed by Incredibolt, and he was second in that November race at Churchill behind Further Ado.

Brian: The rest of the Smarty Jones field has plenty of interesting options. Mark Casse has been going good of late, and both Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic have shown ability in stakes company. McPeek’s other one, Sleepingonfreedom, also could be a runner and Oscar’s Hope has proven himself a nice horse. 

The one I like best after the two favorites, however, is Boca Beach Club. Picking up Luis Saez for his third career start, he looked very good in two sprints to begin his career, one at Hawthorne and one at Oaklawn. Bred to appreciate the added distance and coming in sharp, he looks very live on Saturday.

Matt: The field of nine in the Smarty Jones has two stakes winners and four others who are stakes-placed. Universe is the only horse with previous races on the Derby trail. Oscar’s Hope has plenty of experience with five starts, finishing first three times and second twice. His three victories were at three different tracks for trainer Tom Amoss. He broke his maiden at Saratoga, won an allowance at Churchill and got a stakes victory in the Jean LaFitte at Delta Downs.

Brian: Although Balboa and My World both are proven in stakes company, I am not blown away with either. Meanwhile, I really like the pedigree of the newcomer Enforced Agenda, and I thought his debut performance was very good. It doesn’t hurt either that it was one-mile race at Aqueduct, the same as he will see on Saturday. Flavien Prat is in the saddle, and I hope he is the third choice behind the stakes winners. Enforced Agenda is my top pick in the Jerome.

Matt: I have serious questions about whether Balboa can handle longer distances since his only wins were at six furlongs. He was well-beaten in the stretch in the Remsen and will face a small field in the Jerome that still presents challenges. I liked the Nashua victory by My World, and he will get a very similar type of trip on Saturday. My World is my Jerome top pick.

Brian: Although I am very intrigued by the stretch out to two turns for Boca Beach Club after two solid starts sprinting, I have to go with Universe in this one. There is an old saying that class will tell, and having faced Napoleon Solo, Incredibolt and Further Ado in his last three races, I believe the Kenny McPeek runner will very much appreciate the group he will face at Oaklawn. Not that it is a weak bunch, but there are no killers in this one like he has faced consistently since his debut score. Rosario should have him finishing strong in the stretch. Universe is my top pick.

Matt: For me, Universe and Oscar’s Hope are the top contenders in the Smarty Jones. They both have the right kind of experience and have run well in every start at different race tracks. Universe gets a rider change to Joel Rosario and Oscar’s Hope gets Ricardo Santana Jr. But in this group at Oaklawn, Universe gets class relief from his three prior starts on the Derby trail. Universe will also be my top choice in the Smarty Jones.