HorseCenter: Memorial Day at Santa Anita Grade 1 turf picks

It is time to hit the turf. This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman offer analysis and top picks for a pair of Grade 1 grass races from Santa Anita. The Memorial Day card features a field of nine older males in the $300,000 Shoemaker Mile, as well as eight fillies and mares in the Gamely Stakes.

The returning Formidable Man looks like just that as he makes his first start since an excellent runner-up finish behind Notable Speech in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. The Michael McCarthy-trained 5-year-old has won 8-of-15 overall on the turf, including a pair of Grade 1 scores. Chief among his opposition on Monday will be the English-bred Almendares, a recent winner of the American (G3) over the Santa Anita turf.

In the nine-furlong Gamely, the Phil D’Amato-trained Thought Process should go favored after winning the Buena Vista (G2) in her only start this season. Overall, the daughter of Collected is 6-for-8 on the turf, including a trio of graded-stakes races. The English import Take A Breath looks like a strong challenger after winning a pair of graded stakes races on the Santa Anita turf in her two most recent starts.

Brian: Let’s go ladies first today on HorseCenter. It’s hard to knock the excellent turf record of Thought Process unless you look at her one career try beyond a mile. She has been a tiger at the flat-mile distance, where she has feasted with six wins. Her only loss at that distance came in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Lightly raced since that defeat, she was stretched out to the Gamely distance of 1 1/8 miles last summer and she faded late to third as the favorite in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). Will it happen to her again on Monday? As the favorite, it might be worth a shot to find out.

Matt: The Gamely drew an evenly matched group of fillies and mares, and all but one of them have a stakes victory in their past performances. Six of them are graded-stakes winners, with four who triumphed in a Grade 3 and two in Grade 2s. One of them will leave Monday’s race with her first Grade 1 victory and the winner’s share of the $300,000 purse.

Brian: Take a Breath and May Day Ready finished only a half-length apart last month in the Royal Heroine (G3) and will get another crack at each other here. Always ahead of her rival in that one-mile affair, Take a Breath was able to hold her off for her second straight graded stakes score. May Day Ready might appreciate the added furlong on Monday, however, as she makes her second start since shifting to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. The daughter of Tapit was twice a graded-stakes winner for her previous barn.

Matt: May Day Ready is by far the leading money winner in the field, with earnings of more than $1.3 million, most of whichcame when she won the first three starts of her career as a 2-year-old. She was trained by Joe Lee, a former assistant of Kiaran McLaughlin. After her maiden win she went to Kentucky Downs to take the $1 million Juvenile Fillies followed by the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready rallied from 14 to finish second after a troubled trip. As a 3-year-old she won the Lake Placid (G2) at Saratoga. The game finish last month in the Royal Heroine came after a winter layoff.

Brian: The list of serious contenders in the Gamely continues withclassy turf mares. Rashmi was certainly ready to roll last time when she blitzed the field in the Wilshire (G3) after just over a year away. The Oscar Performance mare has won half of her 10 career starts. Hang the Moon returns to California, where she was a two-time graded stakes winner, after running a pair of nice efforts in Florida for new trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Vronti also will make the trip west after winning two straight for trainer Graham Motion. An England import, the progressive filly will make her graded-stakes debut here.

Matt: Trainer Saffie Joseph has won 14 graded stakes this year already, including three Grade 1s, starting with the $5.8 million earner Skippylongstocking in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Joseph added the Apple Blossom and the Derby City Distaff. During Preakness weekend, Joseph won the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and the Pimlico Special (G3). He won the Gamely last year with Be Your Best, so do not discount the chances of Hang the Moon, who appears to have regained her top form.

Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario recently switched agents and moved his tack back to the West Coast, where he began riding in hopes of rejuvenating his career ,which had faded over the winter in Florida. Rosario has the mount on Grade 3 winner Public Assembly, the “other” Phil D’Amato runner in the Gamely.

Brian: Consistency is a hallmark of the Michael McCarthy-trained Formidable Man. On California turf, he has three stakes victories each of the last two seasons, with eight wins and two seconds from 12 tries overall. His performance when last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Mile was excellent seen. With Flavien Prat making the trip west to ride him on Monday, it would seem likely that he'll turn in another strong effort in his 5-year-old debut. But he was a late-running fourth in this race last year, and he has been away from the races now for nearly seven months. 

Matt: The field of nine has five horses who have graded-stakes victories, led by Formidable Man and King of Gosford, who are Grade 1 winners. Formidable Man faced some of the world’s best turf milers and was beaten in the Breeders’ Cup Mile by Notable Speech, who has five Grade or Group 1 wins and over $3.5 million in earnings. Formidable Man will be a deserving favorite on Monday and figures to be hard to beat against this group of West Coast turfers.

Brian: Almendares has been around a while, but the 6-year-old might be in the best form of his career. Three starts back, he had stretch traffic when rallying for third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Returning to California, he finished strongly to be third in the Kilroe Mile (G2) before getting up to win the American (G3) last time out. There should be enough speed in here to set the table for his late run. The England-bred veteran is an obvious threat here.

Matt: Mi Hermano Ramon won the Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) at the Del Mar fall meeting of 2024, but his two starts this year give this 6-year-old from the barn of Mark Glatt the look of a long shot. Almendares and El Potente come to the Shoemaker with Grade 3 victories this year, which makes them both win contenders on Monday.

Brian: King of Gosford is back to defend his crown after winning this race with a late surge last year. After a sizable layoff, he returned last month with a decent effort behind Almendares in the American. He likes Santa Anita, and improvement can be expected in his second start back. El Potente is another one in here who must be mentioned. The speedy 7-year-old simply fires every time and has won six of his 10 races over the Santa Anita turf. The talented Call Me Cory should keep him company early, but El Potente has proven to be a horse who does not need the lead to win.

Matt:  At 4-1 King of Gosford used a late rally to win the Shoemaker last year as he prevailed by a neck over Mi Hermano Roman in a blanket finish of the top three. On that day the early fractions were hot, with seven furlongs going in 1:21 and change and one of the pacesetters hanging on for third in that close finish.

This year’s Shoemaker field is loaded with late runners and has only two horses who prefer to race on the lead. One of them is a recent allowance winner who will try a stakes race for the first time. The TimeformUS projector shows a neutral pace scenario.

El Potente is a confirmed front runner who is a two-time winner of the Thunder Road (G3) going the mile distance at Santa Anita. Breaking from the inside, expect regular rider Hector Berrios to attempt to get loose on the lead as the 7-year-old tries to win his first Grade 1.

Brian: The Gamely features a quality field of turf fillies and mares but there is not much speed in the race. That helps the favorite Thought Process, who has been very good since beginning her career less than two years ago. The lack of early pace could also help Rashmi. The daughter of Oscar Performance looked well on her way to a strong season last year before being sidelined. Her return was impressive and should serve as a nice prep for this test. She is often bet, but against this field the odds could be right. I think this is a good spot for her to show her best. Rashmi is my top pick in the Gamely.

Matt: May Day Ready’s pair of seventh-place finishes last year after her victory in the Lake Placid muddied up her record. The move to the West Coast barn of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella provides the daughter of Tapit with a barn change that could very well get her back to the winning ways that she displayed earlier in her career. That second-place finish in the Royal Heroine indicates that she might be ready for success in this Grade 1. May Day Ready is my top pick in the Gamely.

Brian: How low will the odds be on Formidable Man in the Shoemaker Mile? He certainly looks the one they all have to beat, but as a clear favorite in his first start of the year, it might make sense to take a shot against him here. Willing to take that shot, I am going to look for some real odds Monday with the Richard Mandella-trained Seal Team. I have long thought this son of War Front had the talent to win a big race, and his latest workout tells me that he is sharp as a razor right now. He has had tough luck throughout his career, so maybe he is due for things to fall his way. In his third start off the layoff, I want to take a shot with him. Joel Rosario seems to be riding with a new purpose since arriving in California. Seal Team is my upset pick in the Shoemaker Mile.

Matt: Flavien Prat travels to Santa Anita to ride Formidable Man for the first time for Michael McCarthy even though he rode King of Gosford to the victory in this race last year. Formidable Man has a significant class advantage over the rest of this field with his extensive Grade 1 resume. The fact that he was 18-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile is an indication of how strong that field actually was. There are questions to be answered as he comes off a winter layoff as a 5-year-old, but this is the right field to face starting his 2026 campaign. Formidable Man is my top pick in the Shoemaker Mile.