HorseCenter: Lexington Stakes and Apple Blossom top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman offer analysis and top picks for a pair of important races from Oaklawn and Keeneland. The 2024 horse of the year Thorpedo Anna will be making her second start of the year in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn, where she will spot six rivals four to 12 pounds. In search of her sixth Grade 1 score, the Kenny McPeek-trained filly will be an overwhelming favorite.

After an awful week of rain in Kentucky, the sun has returned for racing at Keeneland. On Saturday, the final Derby prep of the season will be run when a field of nine sophomore males line up in the Lexington Stakes (G3). In what could turn out to be more accurately described as a Preakness prep, the graded-stakes winner Bullard and the promising Praetor lead the way. 

Before the analysis of two of Saturday’s biggest races, Matt and Brian will look back at a busy weekend of racing, which included a victory for America by Hit Show in the Dubai World Cup (G1), as well as important Kentucky Derby prep wins by Journalism in California, Rodriguez in New York and Burnham Square in Kentucky.

Brian: Journalism continues to look like the best 3-year-old out there, Matt. His win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) was impressive not for the margin of victory or final time, but rather the trouble he overcame on the far turn before swinging out for his charge. He will need racing luck in Kentucky, but he is the horse to beat. I also thought the lightly raced, well-bred Baeza ran a very nice race in his stakes debut and should be one to look out for later in the season.

Matt: Journalism continued on his path to being the favorite in the Kentucky Derby when he overcame a less than ideal trip in the Santa Anita Derby to win his fourth race in a row. He was in tight quarters, got bumped and was in fifth before he got clear running room. The son of Curlin was able to go by Baeza, who had gotten the lead in the stretch, to win by 3/4 length. Successfully overcoming adversity strengthens his position as the horse to beat in the run for the roses.

Journalism was the even-money favorite at Santa Anita, and he was the 4-1 favorite in the sixth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed before the Santa Anita Derby was run. He will head to Churchill Downs with 122.5 points, which puts him in the No. 3 spot on the Derby leaderboard.

Brian: They were not running fast at the end of the Blue Grass (G1), but I still like the way Burnham Square came from way back and overcame traffic to get up and win. Keeneland was not exactly favoring big rallies on Tuesday. He was my top pick in the Grade 1 race and is another dangerous late runner headed to the Kentucky Derby. It also was good to see East Avenue return to form. He could add more speed to the mix if he enters the run for the roses.

Matt: Burnham Square bounced back from his disappointing fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) to have the best run in the Blue Grass and now sits on top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 130 points. He heads into the Derby as part of a group, behind Journalism, in excellent form and could be a factor at the end of the 10 furlongs with the right kind of trip.

Brian: In New York, Rodriguez did all the running from his rail position and made the victory in the Wood Memorial (G2) look rather easy. It sure seems like he wants to use his speed and run free on the lead. Once that happens, he becomes very dangerous, but I do not expect things to be easy on the front end in the Kentucky Derby. The runner-up Grande deserves some props as well. In only his third career start, he was wide all the way around and kept running down the lane. The Curlin colt could make some noise in the classics.

Matt: Rodriguez locked up his spot in the Kentucky Derby as he currently sits in fourth position on the points list with 121.5 after getting 100 from his victory in the Wood. After the race there was a lot of talk from jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert about how similar Rodriguez is to his sire Authentic. Smith rode Authentic in the early stages of his career but not for his front-running victory in the 2020 Covid-altered September edition of the Kentucky Derby. On Saturday, Rodriguez was on the lead every step of the way at Aqueduct, covering the nine furlongs in an impressive 1:48.15 with a final furlong in an excellent 12.47 seconds and a strong gallop out.

Brian: The Dubai World Cup turned out to be an unexpected win for American racing. I was surprised to see Forever Young run only third behind Hit Show and Mixto. It was not his best performance, and perhaps his thrilling victory over Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup (G1) in his previous outing took a little starch out of him in this one. I still very much look forward to seeing him back in America for another shot at the Breeders’ Cup Classic and consider him a top contender.

As for the winner, Hit Show is a nice horse who now has a career-defining win. The 5-year-old son of Candy Ride raised his record to 9-of-18 lifetime, with six graded-stakes wins. Having said that, I still believe he is only a second stringer back in the U.S. behind the likes of Thorpedo Anna, White Abarrio, Locked, Fierceness and Sierra Leone.

Matt: A victory in the Dubai World Cup is an important accomplishment in the worldwide Thoroughbred racing scene if only for its $12 million purse. There are certainly more prestigious races for older horses that do not have the big dollar signs. The 5-year-old Hit Show, who was privately purchased in August 2024, already had impressive earnings of $1.3 million from his eight victories. The win at Meydan added another $6.96 million to his career statistics and a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Hit Show’s $8.406 million in earnings puts him in 26th position on the all-time leaders list of horses who have run in North America. Ushba Tesoro from Japan, who won this race in 2023, is No. 1 with $18.7 million, but he could finish only sixth behind Hit Show this year.

Brian: After easily winning her seasonal debut at Oaklawn Park five weeks ago in the Azeri Stakes (G1), Thorpedo Anna gets right back to business as she returns to the Arkansas oval as a heavy favorite in the Apple Blossom. As a handicap, the Apple Blosson will ask her to carry top weight of 124 pounds. Handicaps are not what they once were, Matt. Who knows what she might have had to carry back in the golden age of racing? Still, the champion filly will give four to 12 pounds to her opposition in this 8 1/2-furlong test.

We were hoping that the unbeaten Baffert runner Cavalieri would ship in, but clearly they want no part of Thorpedo Anna right now. Of the horses that are entered, Free Like a Girl, Wild Bout Hilary and Where’s My Ring are the main contenders, and all three have speed or tactical speed. The latter is a graded-stakes winner who comes into the Apple Blossom off a huge allowance win over the track. She could make noise in the older female dirt division this year.

Matt: Brian, enjoy your trip to Oaklawn to see Thorpedo Anna. I am looking forward to seeing her run at Saratoga hopefully a couple of times. The Apple Blossom is all about the reigning horse of the year.

Brian: After breaking his maiden over the highly regarded Sovereignty last fall, Praetor built upon that by returning with a romping allowance win for trainer Chad Brown. The Into Mischief colt should have every chance on Saturday when making his stakes debut in the Lexington. Second choice on the morning line is Gosger, who ran two solid races against maiden company at Gulfstream Park.

One week after winning the Santa Anita Derby with Journalism, trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli will look for another Derby trail win, this time with Bullard. After winning his first two starts impressively, the son of Gun Runner spun his wheels a bit last time behind Barnes in the San Vicente (G2). Freshened since, he should be ready to show off his talent on Saturday.

Matt: Brian, I think you have identified the right three horses in the Lexington. With the Blue Grass results, this final Derby prep race will not have any impact on the field for the run for the roses.

Brian: I am looking forward going to Oaklawn and seeing Thorpedo Anna run in person for the first time since her heartbreaking loss in the Travers (G1). I do not see this as a good betting race, as the favorite will be 1-10. If you want to take a shot against her, Where’s My Ring has the best chance, in my opinion. I will not be taking a shot against her, though. Thorpedo Anna is my top pick.

Matt: The Apple Blossom is a race that I will enjoy watching as a racing fan because Thorpedo Anna once again will be a massive favorite. I thought that Forever Young had very little chance of losing in the Dubai World Cup and then finished third. Still, Thorpedo Anna is my top pick.

Brian: Coming off a pair of nice wins, Praetor is a deserving favorite in the Lexington, but his odds will be low. I am not as sold on the morning-line second choice Gosger, who had to work against a colt who came back to lose his next race. Meanwhile, Bullard has been away since January, which I don’t see as a negative at all. He is fresh and has good tactical speed, and he should appreciate the added distance. He has also kept solid company out in California. As the third choice on the morning line, Bullard is my top pick.

Matt: The Lexington is a race where Lasix is affecting which horse I will pick. Both Gosger and Praetor won their 3-year-old debuts with first-time Lasix and now have to run without the medication. Preator won an allowance at Gulfstream last month in a field of six by more than seven lengths but had a significant decrease in speed figures. Gosger broke his maiden with the addition of Lasix in February. I think Bullard will end up as the second choice in the Lexington based on his stakes performances in California and because he was not eligible to run with Lasix in any of his three starts. I’m a big fan of trainer Michael McCarthy, so Bullard will be my top pick also.