HorseCenter: Analysis, top picks for Kentucky Derby, Oaks preps

The path to Louisville through New Orleans gets hotter on Saturday with the running of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes for the boys and the Silverbulletday for the girls. Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman will offer analysis and top picks for both the Kentucky Derby 2026 prep and the Kentucky Oaks prep right now on HorseCenter.

The 83rd edition of the Lecomte offers a wide-open cast of young characters looking for the lion’s share of 42 Kentucky Derby points that are up for grabs. Leading the way in the 1 1/16-mile test will be Chip Honcho and Crown the Buckeye, who finished first and a close third in the local Gun Runner Stakes last month, respectively.

Meanwhile, the good-looking Golden Rod (G2) runner-up Atropa is the morning-line choice in the Silverbulletday. She is one of two promising fillies in the field for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who also has the debut winner White Smoke ready to go in the 1-mile, 70-yard affair for sophomore fillies.

Brian: Ladies first this week on HorseCenter, Matt, and that means qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale will be available to the top five finishers in the Silverbulletday. Atropa, who will break from the rail under Jose Ortiz, looks like a legitimate favorite in the race named for the Hall of Fame filly who won 15 of 23 races for Mike Pegram and Bob Baffert at the turn of the century.

A royally bred daughter of Into Mischief, Atropa fetched $450,000 as a Keeneland yearling and has looked the part of an up-and-comer in her last two starts. After not doing much in a Saratoga debut for trainer Cherie DeVaux, the bay filly won by a pole in her second career start when stretched out to two turns at Keeneland. She followed that with a fast-closing second in the Golden Rod (G2), where she just ran out of real estate.

Matt: The road to the Kentucky Oaks gets more serious in the Silverbulletday as the number of qualifying points doubles. The field of six has only one stakes winner, and that was Taken by the Wind on the Oaks trail in the Pocahontas. The rest of the fillies include four who have one victory on their resumes and another who will be making her third start seeking her maiden-breaker. Four of these 3-year-olds have appeared on the Oaks trail and four of them already have qualifying points, including the second- and third-place finishers from the Untapable at Fair Grounds last month.

Atropa has five Oaks points from her second-place in the Golden Rod at Churchill. She is the 2-1 morning-line favorite with that eye-catching, 10-length maiden score in October, when she beat a filly who came back to win her next start. Atropa has three workouts at Fair Grounds since the Golden Rod. Regular rider Jose Ortiz, who has been dominating the current meeting in New Orleans with 30% winners, stays on board.

Brian: Although Atropa brings serious promise to the Silverbulletday, it’s hard to argue with what Taken by the Wind has done in her first two career starts. She is trained by Kenny McPeek, Matt, and we actually saw her together when the daughter of first-crop sire Rock Your World won in her unveiling at Saratoga on Travers Stakes weekend.

It was a nice enough debut, but she really impressed me quite a bit more a few weeks later at Churchill Downs when I watched her dismantle a pretty good group in the Pocahontas (G3). Saturday’s test will be the first race in four months for the unbeaten stakes winner and her first try around two turns.

Matt: Taken by the Wind is listed at 5-2 on the morning line, and I would not be surprised if she goes off as the favorite on Saturday in race 10. She is the only filly in the field with two wins and the only stakes winner. Her Pocahontas victory by more than five lengths gave her 10 Oaks points. McPeek put her back in serious training in December at Fair Grounds but sent her to Oaklawn briefly at the end of the month. Most likely she would have found a larger field in Arkansas for the bigger purse money.

Brian: None of the other four fillies in the Silverbulletday can be taken for granted, but it is Cherie DeVaux’s other starter who I find to be the most interesting. From an experience standpoint, White Smoke is in deep, but I sure liked what I saw from her after breaking slowly in her debut four weeks ago at Fair Grounds. The rallying win for the daughter of Essential Quality promises bigger things to come, and her sire is my favorite of all new stallions this year.

Matt: It is true that White Smoke has only the one race, but that is the way things are these days. And as I said, there is only one filly in this field with more than a maiden victory. White Smoke was sent off as the 8-5 favorite in that maiden race in a field of eight, so the word was out that this $500,000 Keeneland yearling purchase could run. Interestingly, Jose Ortiz rode her to victory for DeVaux, but he ends up with the mount on Atropa. Flavien Prat, who may be headed to a top jockey Eclipse Award for 2025, will be in the saddle instead.

Brian: Turning our attention to the colts and the Kentucky Derby trail, both the Gun Runner winner Chip Honcho and the third-place finisher Crown the Buckeye ran good races in their first attempt over the Fair Grounds main track, but neither’s performance will scare anyone off in Saturday’s Lecomte. As the top two morning-line choices, this makes for a very wide-open betting proposition.

We both picked Chip Honcho to win the Gun Runner, Matt, but breaking from the outside post in here, I am leaning against the son of Connect after getting the job done late last time. As for Crown the Buckeye, the Ohio-bred stayed on well, but I don’t think things will get any easier for him in the Lecomte. Both favorites have a chance, but I see better value elsewhere.  

Matt: The Lecomte drew a group of 11 Kentucky Derby hopefuls, and it is about as wide open as a field can be. The morning-line favorite is 4-1, and eight of the 3-year-olds have odds between 4-1 and 8-1. Five of them are clustered at 8-1. Chip Honcho and Crown the Buckeye are only two stakes winners in field. Chip Honcho has 10 Derby points from his win in the Gun Runner, and Crown the Buckeye won state-bred stakes at Thistledown and Mahoning Valley.

Brian: Of the many others in the Lecomte field with a chance, I am quite interested in Stop the Car. This race has plenty of early speed, and the undefeated son of Maximum Security demonstrated the ability to pass horses in his debut victory at Keeneland and then his allowance score at Churchill Downs. 

Not rushed by one of the best horsemen around, Stop the Car has been working very well for trainer Brendan Walsh since arriving in New Orleans. He was pretty well ignored by bettors in his first two starts and at 8-1 on the morning line, I am hopeful he will fly under the radar one more time with the underrated Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Matt: Stop the Car is undefeated in two starts, and he raced from off the pace in his maiden win at Keeneland against a full field and in an allowance at Churchill at the end of November. The pace projector says the early fractions will be fast, led by White Tiger, Chip Honcho and Crown the Buckeye.

Brian: As in the Silverbulletday, trainer Cherie DeVaux looks to be a factor in this one with two interesting colts in Golden Tempo and Mesquite. The Phipps Stable might have a good one in the former, but the son of Curlin has made only one start to date. Having said that, he certainly looked good in rallying from last in a local maiden sprint last month. 

Mesquite may have the better odds of the two on Saturday, but he has a bit more experience with two starts. He stretched to two turns last time at Churchill Downs and overcame some bumping for a rallying victory. Note that he defeated Carson Street, who also is in this field, and was a romping maiden winner over a Fair Grounds off track last time. Mesquite also picked up top rider Flavien Prat for the Lecomte.

Matt: The Lecomte field is unusual this year in that most of the field already has raced around two turns. In these earlier Derby preps there are usually more horses who are untested going long. Golden Tempo is one of the two who will be trying two turns for the first time. The son of Curlin was bred by a partnership of the Phipps and St. Elias stables and is out of a graded-stakes winner of $621,000. Golden Tempo beat a field of 10 at Fair Grounds at 5-2 when he raced from last to win by 1 1/2 lengths going six furlongs. Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz team up again with a serious win contender.

Brian: Despite the small field in the Silverbulletday, I do believe there are some potentially very good fillies in the field. Taken by the Wind still could be any kind and I hope she takes plenty of money here, because I like the morning-line favorite Atropa best. The daughter of Into Mischief won like a very good thing at Keeneland in her second start and followed that up with a powerful late run at Churchill Downs in the Golden Rod. Jose Ortiz stays aboard and has been winning at Fair Grounds. Atropa should win this. She is my top pick.

Matt: Both of the horses from the barn of Cherie DeVaux are win contenders in the Silverbulletday. Atropa has more experience with three starts and five Oaks points earned from her second in the Golden Rod. White Smoke impressed in her debut victory. I will take my cue from Jose Ortiz, who rode both of them but ends up on Atropa. Atropa is my top pick to win the Silverbulletday.

Brian: Looking for value in this edition of the Lecomte, I am leaning toward trainer Brendan Walsh on Saturday. Carson Street is bred for a distance, has faced good horses and seemed to like the new surroundings at Fair Grounds. He will be on my tickets, but I like his barn mate even more. Stop the Car is working great after two very good races in Kentucky. I think he no longer will be underrated after this one. Stop the Car is my top pick.

Matt: It could be a big day for DeVaux and Ortiz at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. Golden Tempo was an eye-catching winner of his only race and is bred to be a good one who should handle the step up to a distance of ground. He is in that group of horses listed at 8-1 on the morning line. Golden Tempo is my top pick.