HorseCenter: Kentucky Derby trail picks and analysis

Happy New Year and welcome to the 2022 road to the Kentucky Derby. A quartet of stakes races for 3-year-old males tops a big day of racing around the country on Saturday, Jan. 1. Headlining the list of the New Year’s Day Kentucky Derby preps is the Sham Stakes from Santa Anita. Last year, the Grade 3 affair attracted Life Is Good and Medina Spirit from the barn of Bob Baffert. This year it is led by the Baffert-trained duo of Rockefeller and Newgrange.

The historic Jerome Stakes from Aqueduct and the $250,000 Smarty Jones from Oaklawn Park will also offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Cooke Creek, coming off a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Nashua, is the one to beat in New York while Home Brew, a recent winner over the track looks to go favored in a full field of 14 at Oaklawn Park. Finally, the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park is the only one of the four Saturday stakes races which will not offer qualifying points and is topped by recent allowance winner, Strike Hard.

Sham Stakes (G3), Santa Anita, one mile (dirt), 3-year-olds

Brian's Pick: Newgrange - The speedy debut winner should be able to get the early lead in this small field and be very hard to catch from there. The son of Violence beat a highly regarded horse in Got Thunder in that debut victory for trainer Bob Baffert.

Matt’s Pick: Oviatt Class – Although the Baffert duo look fast and formidable, Oviatt Class comes to the race with a big experience edge. The Keith Desormeaux runner finished third in the American Pharoah (G1) and fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) after a slow start and then traffic trouble later in the race.

Jerome Stakes, Aqueduct, one mile (dirt), 3-year-olds 

Brian's Pick: Hagler - The Rudy Rodriguez-trained colt has a win over the track and controlling speed, as he faces a less than stellar field in the Jerome. The one-mile distance should suit the sharp son of Tapiture well.

Matt’s Pick: Hagler – Hagler looks like a horse that is on the rise. His progression in distance from his allowance win at seven furlongs to this one-turn mile goes well with his tactical speed.

Smarty Jones Stakes, Oaklawn Park, one mile (dirt), 3-year-olds 

Brian's Pick: Home Brew - It's a tough spot, with 13 opponents, but his sharp win over the track points him out as the one to beat in this large field. The well-bred son of Street Sense is consistent for top trainer Brad Cox and has the tactical speed which should help in the large field.

Matt’s Pick: Don’tcrossthedevil – Picking a winner in a 14-horse field of lightly raced 3-year-olds will not be easy, so I sure don’t want to play a horse with shorter odds. Don’tcrossthedevil is 2 for 2 in his career with maiden and allowance victories at Remington Park. He can use his late running style to get good position and then rally down the stretch.

Mucho Macho Man Stakes, Gulfstream Park, one mile (dirt), 3-year-olds

Brian's Pick: Strike Hard - This son of Flashback looks likely to make it two in a row on Saturday. He was a good second behind the talented White Abarrio two starts back and then won nicely last time in allowance company. Both races came over the same track and trip which he will see on Saturday.

Matt’s Pick: Graphic Detail – Graphic Detail won at first asking at Belmont Park in November. The son of promising young sire Practical Joke gets leading rider Luis Saez in the saddle. Like his sire, the one-turn mile should suit him well.