HorseCenter: Summer says Journalism and Sovereignty

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a favorable look at the 2025 crop of 3-year-old males. Not resting on their laurels from an excellent Triple Crown series, Sovereignty and Journalism have come right back to headline the biggest sophomore races of the summer.

The Cardiac Kid was at it again as Journalism closed with a rush to score a win in the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park. Several hours to the north of the Jersey Shore, Sovereignty will look to keep it rolling as he comes back in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes. They are clearly the top two this year, but where do the excellent pair stand from a historical perspective?

Head to Head: Consensus is building for Jim Dandy.

Matt and Brian also handicap the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes from Saratoga as their race of the week. Sovereignty will be a prohibitive favorite on Saturday but a victory is not guaranteed as he gears up for the Travers (G1) four weeks later. 

Brian: There are plenty of good 3-year-old males out there this season, Matt. I think most years we would be talking about horses like Baeza, Magnitude, Gosger, Sandman, Mo Plex and Goal Oriented as potential stars of the fall, but this is not most years. Sovereignty and Journalism have distanced themselves from the pack with continued excellence.  

Collectively, the pair swept the Triple Crown and are showing no signs of slowing down after Journalism’s thrilling late charge to victory in the Haskell. In seven graded stakes appearances, the son of Curlin has five wins and two seconds. Of course, his only two defeats of the seven came when second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. As good as Journalism has been, Sovereignty has been even better with four wins and a second from graded stakes attempts. 

Matt: I am excited for the Jim Dandy and to see if Sovereignty will match Journalism’s impressive Haskell victory in his first start after the Triple Crown races. As always, trainer Bill Mott was being cagey about his star 3-year-old’s upcoming race.

“We hope he has a good race and has a little luck. Anything can happen. They’ve got to go around there, and it’s not over until those blinking lights say official. They’ve got to hang those numbers up and say official.” 

Brian: The exploits of the dynamic duo have me enamored with this crop of 3-year-old males overall. It’s a deep and talented group that could become a great crop if Sovereignty and Journalism continue to mature and improve. The pair awakens memories of great rivalries of the past. I wasn’t around for Swaps and Nashua, or Dr. Fager and Damascus, but I remember Affirmed and Alydar very well, and after them Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

It’s not fair to compare Sovereignty and Journalism with legends like those at this point, but personally, I am enthusiastically looking forward to each race they run. If I had to pick the best 3-year-old pair of the 21st century right now, I would point to the pair of champions from the 2007 crop. Curlin and Street Sense were two outstanding horses. Can the current pair reach their lofty heights? It certainly looks like they have the potential to get there.

Matt: Looking through the list of past winners of the Jim Dandy, I stopped in 1982, a year when my romance with racing was in full bloom, and I saw the name of one of my favorite horses Conquistador Cielo. He is probably best known as the 3-year-old that began the remarkable five consecutive Belmont Stakes winners that the great Woody Stephens trained from 1982 to 1986.

In 1982, Conquistador Cielo won seven races in a row from February to August. That included a stretch with the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) on May 31 and five days later he beat the Kentucky Derby winner Gato del Sol in the Belmont Stakes by 14 lengths. The streak continued in July in the Dwyer (G2) and then a month later in the Jim Dandy.

Two weeks after the Jim Dandy, Conquistador Cielo’s remarkable run and career came to an end after finishing third in the Travers. He was sold for $36.5 million, which was a remarkable amount of money in today’s dollar and even more so in 1982. At the year’s end he was named the 3-year-old champion and horse of the year.

Brian: The evolution of Sovereignty since we saw him in his career debut rallying down the Saratoga stretch against a stacked maiden field has been textbook. Trainer Bill Mott deserves credit for developing the handsome son of Into Mischief into a superstar. After the first half of his sophomore season went about as well as possibly hoped for, it’s time for him to show he can be even better as a still maturing horse. The Jim Dandy is the first step.

A natural prep for the Travers, the 9-furlong Jim Dandy is a race he is expected to win. It can be a tricky race for horses coming out of the Belmont Stakes, however. Affirmed almost got beat after his amazing Triple Crown run. Empire Maker did get beat. Sovereignty has one advantage in that the Belmont was only 10-furlongs at Saratoga this year. Having said that, the short field with very little early speed does him no favors in a race that is only a bridge between major goals.

Matt: Sovereignty’s loss in the Florida Derby (G1), which was his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby victory, serves as a reminder that Bill Mott is an old-school trainer that does not care if his horses take a loss on the way to success in a more important race. Could the same thing happen in the Jim Dandy as surely Mott has his eyes on the Travers (G1) on Aug. 23?

That seems like a more feasible explanation for Sovereignty getting upset in the Jim Dandy than any of his four opponents stepping up to defeat him when he is at full fitness.

Brian: Baeza deserves credit for exiting a maiden win and then running three good races against the likes of Journalism and Sovereignty. The Belmont was not his best, but his big Derby finish may have taken something out of him. Have we seen his best, or can he still get better? I lean to the latter and this is a race that is probably more important to his connections than those of the horse that beat him in the last two. He also has a little more tactical speed than Sovereignty, which could be a big benefit to him on Saturday. I believe he has the best shot to upset the favorite.

Matt: Even though Baeza has only one career victory I agree that he is the most formidable challenger for Sovereignty. His speed figures from the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies are better than everybody in the field except Sovereignty. Let’s face it, in his last two starts he lost to the two best 3-year-olds in the country and three races back he lost to Journalism another time.

Brian: Speed is always dangerous and when you can get loose on the lead the threat expands exponentially. Mo Plex never before has faced this kind, but the New York-bred has shown enough in the Bay Shore and Ohio Derby (G3) to earn a shot at the big boys. He also has two wins over the Saratoga track and experience battling down the lane. Everything points to a good effort from the Complexity colt on Saturday and I expect it. Look for him to lead for as long as he can, and it could just be all the way to the wire. 

Matt: Brian, the pace projector agrees with your analysis of how the Jim Dandy will be run. The nine-furlong contest gets a blue rating which translates to a race that favors horse on or near the early lead and that Mo Plex is that horse. Sovereignty shows up in fourth-place in the early going.

Brian: I honestly believe that Hill Road and especially Sandman are nice horses. Given the right set up the Peter Pan winner and the Arkansas Derby hero can and will continue to do some nice things. I just don’t believe that the Jim Dandy race dynamics are in their favor at all. Both want a good strong early pace to set the table for their late runs and they will not get it on Saturday. We will see how Sandman runs with the addition of blinkers, but I don’t foresee a complete change to what type of horse he is.

Matt: I am not sure what to expect from Hill Road because as good as he looked in the Peter Pan victory he was outclassed in the Belmont Stakes when he finished fifth. Brian, he is listed as the 10-1 long shot on your morning line.

I assume that the blinkers go on Sandman to try and keep him from falling so far behind in the early going. Not sure that will be a positive outcome for this confirmed late runner who ran well in his last six starts and has accumulated $1.4 million in career earnings already.

Brian: Last week, I cringed at giving out a heavy favorite as my top pick, but at least my straight exacta of Journalism over Gosger came through. This week, I am going to take a shot against the chalk. Sovereignty is the best horse, but at 3-5 or shorter in a tricky race, I will try to beat him. Mo Plex is dangerous, but I am going with Baeza. I love the way he has been working since the Belmont. I think trainer John Shirreffs has him moving forward, and he should get first run at Mo Plex on Saturday. Baeza is my top pick in the Jim Dandy.

Matt: The only way that I will be wagering on the Jim Dandy will be in horizontal wagers, particularly the late Pick 5. In there I will use both Sovereignty and Baeza. I see them as the horse to beat and the overall second-best horse in the field. I expressed my concern about whether Sovereignty will be at 100% on Saturday. Still, I am supposed to pick winners, thus Sovereignty is my top pick.