HorseCenter: Top picks for 2 Kentucky Derby preps

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman hit the Kentucky Derby trail for a pair of qualifying points races on Saturday from Florida and New York. The Grade 3, $275,000 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park is the afternoon’s headliner, and the $200,000 Withers at Aqueduct offers the same 42 points for the top five finishers.

The 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull features a trio of well-liked sophomores looking to prove themselves as serious candidates for the first Saturday in May. Incredibolt is the lone graded-stakes winner in the field, having rallied to victory in last fall’s Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. Meanwhile, both Nearly and Cannoneer will make their stakes debuts on Saturday, and both were very impressive in their most recent wins.

Braving the cold on Saturday at the Big A will be a field of eight sophomores in the Withers Stakes. Trainer Chad Brown figures to have plenty to say in the 1 1/8-mile affair with the pair of highly regarded maiden winners Ottinho and Schoolyardsuperman.

Brian: Incredibolt is the most accomplished horse in the Holy Bull field, having swept from last to first to win the Street Sense. That was his second victory at the Louisville oval, and I consider him a real threat on the Kentucky Derby trail. His sophomore debut might not be easy, however. The late runner will be making his first start in more than three months while facing sharp horses on a track that tends to play kindly to speed types.

Matt: Incredibolt is trained by Riley Mott, son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The younger Mott has 101 wins since going out on his own after working for his dad. He already has trained a pair of Grade 1 winners and now has a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender with this son of Bolt d’Oro. Incredibolt has four timed workouts at Palm Meadows training center in Florida since December. He finds another small field, and it has only two other horses with stakes experience. I get excited by the possibility of a run for the roses that includes this father-and-son duo.

Brian: Nearly has certainly made an impression in his two starts at Gulfstream Park. The son of Not This Time was an impressive winner against fellow Florida-breds in his second career start in November and then came back with an eye-catching allowance win over a highly regarded colt four weeks ago. The $350,000 yearling purchase for Centennial Farms was bumped soundly at the start and spotted the field several lengths a few strides clear of the starting gate. Still, he was able to win for fun in the seven-furlong allowance race.

Matt: Nearly fits well in this Holy Bull field as he steps onto the Derby trail with two wins in a row for Hall of Fame connections. He is by a top young sire and won those two races by a combined total of more than 14 lengths. It does need to be noted that his allowance win was against a field of four and came with first-time Lasix. Regardless of that, he is a serious win contender to pick up Derby qualifying points. Pletcher won the Holy Bull in 2012 with Algorithms and in 2018 with Audible, and rider John Velazquez won the race in 1997.

Brian: While Nearly has looked the part over the Gulfstream oval, Cannoneer also received plenty of praise for his victory at Churchill Downs. Trained by Brad Cox, the Into Mischief colt ran a good third in an early career debut. Given plenty of time off, he came back nearly six months later to run away from a big group of maidens going seven furlongs. The final time of 1:21.63 underscored how impressive the late November performance was.

Matt: Cannoneer comes to the Derby trail for Brad Cox, who in recent years has filled the entry box in prep races. Cannoneer is a homebred from Stonestreet Stables who was joined in ownership by St. Elias Stable. The June debut for a 2-year-old from those connections is interesting, and he ran well on that day, battling down the stretch. That kind of open-lengths victory in his second race against a big field makes him a horse you cannot ignore.

Brian: The remainder of the Holy Bull field should have attractive odds after the scratch of Buetane. Among them, I find the New York-bred Bravaro to be an interesting sort. From the same trainer-jockey combination who just won the Pegasus World Cup (G1) with Skippylongstocking, this Upstart colt has looked good in his first two career starts. Both victories came against state-breds at Aqueduct, but Fourth and One, whom he beat in both, came back with a big maiden win.

Matt: Bravaro loved the added distance in his second start when he went a mile to win the Sleepy Hollow at Aqueduct against a field of six in October. Fourth and One shows up on the Derby trail in the Withers. Bravaro was sent to Florida to continue his training at Palm Meadows to prepare for the Holy Bull. Trainer Joseph is most dangerous at his home track of Gulfstream.

Brian: Trainer Chad Brown won the Withers Stakes in 2021 and 2022 with Risk Taking and Early Voting, and the five-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer may be poised to do it again with Ottinho of Schoolyardsuperman. The former is a well-bred son of Quality Road. A half-brother to the champion Gun Runner, he has made two good starts against maiden company and won at the distance last time. Improvement is expected in his stakes debut. With top rider Flavien Prat staying aboard, he is an obvious threat to win the Withers.

Matt: The extreme wintery temperatures in the Aqueduct area led to a reduced field size in the Withers as some anticipated entries did not come when the race closed on Tuesday. The Withers is only the second race on the Derby trail where horses will be asked to run nine furlongs, and that is not an easy task on the Aqueduct surface. That being said, Ottinho is the only horse in the field to have successfully run that distance.

Brian: Brown’s other horse is Schoolyardsuperman, and he figures to be the second choice on Saturday. After clipping heels and going down in his debut, the Practical Joke colt quickly rebounded with a solid second sprinting before easily breaking his maiden going a mile last time. The good-looking maiden score at Aqueduct shows he is talented and headed in the right direction. But of the two runners from the Brown barn, his stablemate might be the one more likely to appreciate nine furlongs and beyond.

Matt: Schoolyardsuperman broke his maiden by open lengths after stretching out to a one-turn mile while racing on the front end with an impressive time. The pace projector says the race will be fast and this Brown runner will be contending for the lead. That scenario makes the task of winning at the Withers distance particularly hard for him.

Brian: If you are trying to beat Brown in the Withers, there are some pretty good candidates. Butch Reid ships in a sharp son of Maximus Mischief from Parx named Mailata. A little immature in his first two starts, he still showed ability. In his last three races, he has put things together and seems to be getting better by the race. The two-time stakes winner has good speed and should be involved from the outset on Saturday.

Another contender to look at in the Withers is the Jeremiah Englehart-trained and New York-bred Fourth and One. The gelding has been well liked all along and ran second in a stakes race in his debut. He faced and was competitive with the talented Bravaro in his next two before dropping the blinkers last time against fellow state-breds. The result was a big win going a mile for the son of Maxfield.

Matt: It is easy for handicappers to dismiss runners shipping up from Parx. On a typical day of racing I frequently do that. In this case with Mailata, we are talking about trainer Butch Reid. He frequently sends horses to New York to try stakes during the winter meeting and is a two-time winner of the Withers, including in 2024 with Uncle Heavy. Although Mailata won with basically front-end efforts in races going seven furlongs and a mile, he projects to have a stalking trip at the longer distance of the Withers.

Fourth and One has the look of a horse whom Englehart has been figuring out over his four starts against New York-breds. Moving between maiden races and stakes with the last two at a mile, Fourth and One put it all together last month to get an impressive first victory.

Brian: In the Holy Bull, I have to lean toward the horse who not only has strong recent form but has been winning over the Gulfstream Park track. Nearly overcame a bad start last time and still beat a good horse with ease. I believe that Incredibolt, Cannoneer and Bravaro all are nice horses, but this race sets up better for the son of Not This Time. I think that Todd Pletcher and Centennial Farms might have another good one here. Nearly is my top pick.

Matt: In the Holy Bull, there are a few horses who might be ready to take a step forward and win on the Derby trail, but Incredibolt already has done that. I like that trainer Riley Mott has had him in Florida to prepare for the prep races at Gulfstream. I am going to side with the horse who has the best record and experience. He has had four months between races when a young horse can grow and mature. Incredibolt is my top pick in the Holy Bull.

Brian: I don’t believe the Withers field has nearly as much potential as the Holy Bull; pun intended. I am going to take a shot to beat the two favorites from the Brown barn. Either could win, but neither has done enough for me to love, considering the odds. Instead, I will look toward the New York-bred, who has tactical speed and experience and has done well over the track. I also liked the way he moved forward without blinkers last time. Fourth and One should enjoy more distance and will be my top pick for the upset. 

Matt: I am also going to try to beat the Chad Brown duo, but once again I am going with a 3-year-old with plenty of experience. Mailata won his last three races, and trainer Butch Reid knows how to ship up to New York and win stakes. Parx horses tend to get overlooked, and there is a chance he will come with the highest odds of his career in his sixth start. Mailata is my top pick in the Withers.