HorseCenter: Fountain of Youth, Rebel top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman analyze a very big weekend of Kentucky Derby preps. Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth in South Florida features the return of Grade 1 winner Napoleon Solo. At Oaklawn, a field of 10 sophomore colts offers plenty of intrigue in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Sunday afternoon.  

Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth was the first step of a championship season for Sovereignty last year. This year, a quintet of promising young runners will look to follow in his footsteps. One day later in Arkansas, the Rebel features a showdown of graded-stakes runners in Blackout Time, Litmus Test and Silent Tactic.

Brian: Matt, let’s begin in Florida, where a number of hot prospects for the first Saturday in May will square off in a race won last year by Sovereignty on his way to Kentucky Derby glory. Napoleon Solo deserves to be the headliner off his romping score in last fall’s Champagne Stakes (G1).

The speedy son of Liam’s Map was too fast for his competition in both a Saratoga maiden race in his debut and the one-mile Champagne. Having skipped the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to prepare for the Triple Crown trail, Napoleon Solo has not raced for nearly five months. The freshness should show itself off with early speed on Saturday, but this is no easy test as he makes his two-turn debut.

Matt: To no surprise at all, the pace projector says the Fountain of Youth will be fast. Napoleon Solo is the only Grade 1 winner and the only Derby trail winner in the Fountain of Youth field, thanks to the Champagne score. The one-turn Champagne had blazing fast fractions of 44 and change and 1:07 and change and was visually impressive.

A year or so ago, trainer Chad Summers said he was going to stop training, and now his barn is flourishing, thanks to owner Al Gold of Gold Square. Last year, Summers had a career best with 20 victories, a 24% win rate and over $1.6 million in earnings. He has continued his winning ways in 2026.

Brian: Of his top challengers, it’s a good bet that Chief Wallabee and Commandment will be the ones that take the most betting action. Like Sovereignty, Chief Wallabee is trained by Bill Mott and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. The Constitution colt looked very good in his career debut, which came seven weeks ago at Gulfstream Park. In that seven-furlong maiden, he finished with a flourish and handily put away a nice horse in The Puma.

Commandment also has winning experience at Gulfstream, having dominated the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes in early January. Brad Cox trains the beautifully bred son of Into Mischief and Sippican Harbor. A winner of 2-of-3 lifetime, the handsome bay has improved with each start, including a nice maiden win at Churchill Downs.

Matt: There are plenty of legitimate contenders from top trainers such as Brad Cox, Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher who would be no surprise if they were to find the winner’s circle. Saffie Joseph Jr., who has Gulfstream as his home base, entered three horses, led by Solitude Dude. Undefeated in three starts, he is one of the four stakes winners in this field, and he has a pair of open-length, front-end victories in sprint stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream.

Brian: Two other colts who deserve serious consideration in the Fountain of Youth are Jackson Hole and Solitude Dude. The former was a $1.3 million yearling purchase and is trained by Todd Pletcher. Unbeaten in two starts, the son of Nyquist was a facile debut winner at Gulfstream in December before easily winning a two-turn allowance race at Fair Grounds last month.

Solitude Dude, meanwhile, already has proven himself as a crack sprinter in his three easy wins in as many starts for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. A son of Yaupon, he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park and ran away with the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and the Swale Stakes back at Gulfstream. It will be interesting to see whether he is as effective at 1 1/16 miles.

Matt: Jackson Hole drew the rail, which should give him the chance to run a ground-saving race. He won his debut in December at Gulfstream with a stalking trip and then led every step of the way to win that allowance around two turns at Fair Grounds. His tactical speed will help Jackson Hole deal with the expected fast pace.

Nobody has won the Fountain of Youth more times than Pletcher and John Velazquez. The trainer has four wins with excellent horses such as Forte, Eskendereya and Scat Daddy, and Johnny V. rode three for Pletcher along with Quality Road and Orb.

Brian: Sunday’s Rebel Stakes offers an interesting puzzle. The two morning-line favorites have not run yet this year, and many of the top contenders are coming from different places. Blackout Time was a very good juvenile, but he is hard to back at the track's odds. Having said that, the Not This Time colt could win in his return. If he develops as they hope at 3, he also could be a major player on the Triple Crown trail. 

Much the same can be said about Litmus Test. Blackout Time beat him at Keeneland last season, but the Baffert runner looked to get better as the year wore on. The son of Nyquist has a strong foundation of juvenile races under his belt, and his trainer has a great record with 3-year-olds at Oaklawn.

Matt: The Rebel looks like one of those races where I have to try to beat the favorites Blackout Time and Litmus Test. As Brian pointed out, they both are making their first start of the year and it is easy to see from their past performances why they should be considered the ones to beat. But at the same time it is not hard to find reasons to play against them. They both have past races that could be good enough to win the Rebel.

Last seen, Blackout Time finished second to Ted Noffey, who was the 2-year-old champion and ultimately might turn out to be the best 3-year-old when he returns to racing during the summer. The McPeek runner beat Litmus Test in that race with Ted Noffey.

Litmus Test did end his 2025 campaign with a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). I am not sure about the competition he faced in that race. He has a series of four-furlong workouts at Santa Anita, but he lacks those fast six-furlong breezes that Baffert often uses to prepare for big races.

Brian: Mark Casse has been a hot trainer so far in 2026, and he’ll have a pair of recent stakes winners in the race in Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic. The former won the Smarty Jones nicely but was nowhere in the Southwest Stakes (G3). He would need a real bounce-back effort here to win.

As for Silent Tactic, he ran a good race in the Smarty Jones without any pace to help and then finished beautifully to win the Southwest. A similar effort on Sunday makes him a real contender. The son of Tacitus also looks like a colt who will appreciate longer distances that the coming months will provide.

Matt: Silent Tactic was my pick in the Southwest when he won at 12-1. The smart reaction to his chances in the Rebel probably should be that last time was the time to be backing the Casse runner. He looked like a winner every step of the way in the Southwest when he rallied from the back of that full field and drew off to win by more than three lengths. The victory was visually impressive, and he did it against the flow of the race.

Brian: Of the rest, several interesting colts could be sitting on a breakout performance in the Rebel. Class President is lightly race, but clearly talented. Rancho Sante Fe improved in the Southwest and is not out of this, and Soldier N Diplomat ran even better in the same race. The Army Mule colt would need only a little improvement to become a real factor in a Kentucky Derby prep race.

Matt: Unlike the Gotham (G3) and the Fountain of Youth, the Rebel has a field that is loaded with horses who have experience on the Derby trail. Seven of the 3-year-olds have raced in at least one of the points races. Six of them have earned qualifying points, and three of them won official Derby preps. They come to Oaklawn attracted by the $1 million purse and the 105 points. It should be noted that Bravaro will run in the Fountain of Youth for Saffie Joseph.

Brian: In the Fountain of Youth, I’d like to take a shot against Napoleon Solo as a returning favorite. He could run them off their feet on Saturday, but there is plenty of speed in the race and he has been away for an extended break. Given the expected early pace in this one, I am going to lean toward another win for Mott and Alvarado. Chief Wallabee really impressed me in his debut over the track. I expect him to be finishing best here. Chief Wallabee is my top pick.

Matt: Maybe Napoleon Solo is just too fast for the Fountain of Youth field, but it is going to be a lot tougher for him to get loose on the lead like he was in the Champagne. I love the post-position draw for Jackson Hole on the rail, which will put him into a stalking position while he saves ground. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez are the leading trainer and jockey in the history of this race, which has produced plenty of Kentucky Derby winners. Jackson Hole is my top pick in the Fountain of Youth.

Brian: There are plenty of possible winners on Sunday at Oaklawn, but the one horse who I think is most likely to run a winning race is Litmus Test. I like the way he progressed last year, and his layoff has not been long. He has good tactical speed, and his workouts out in California are sharp. Baffert has won this race eight times and should have his horse ready to run here. Litmus Test is my top pick.

Matt: Silent Tactic was so impressive beating a field of 12 in the Southwest and he did it so easily that he is more likely to take another step forward as opposed to having a bounce in his performance. He will not be 12-1 this time, but he certainly will not be the favorite. I liked the Casse runner a month ago and I like him again in here. Silent Tactic is my top pick in the Rebel.