HorseCenter: Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a deep look at the strongest preps yet on the 2026 Kentucky Derby trail, with analysis and top picks for the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park and the Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn.

The Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby features four highly rated Kentucky Derby contenders. In Saturday’s big race, Commandment and Chief Wallabee will renew their rivalry after a thrilling stretch drive in last month’s Fountain of Youth (G2). The pair will be joined by Holy Bull (G3) hero Nearly and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner The Puma.

In the Arkansas Derby (G1), Renegade looms a solid favorite off an impressive win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his sophomore debut. Standing in the way of the Todd Pletcher trainee in the 1 1/8-mile test will be the Southwest Stakes (G3) winner Silent Tactic.

Brian: I am really looking forward to this edition of the Florida Derby. With Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Nearly and The Puma all in the field, it can easily be called the best Kentucky Derby prep of 2026. Hopefully, all four run their race and we see something special on Saturday.

Despite being the only non-stakes winner of the big four, Chief Wallabee is the 2-1 morning line favorite. I am not surprised to see the support for the son of Constitution, who has looked so promising in his first two starts. From the same trainer-jockey tandem of last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, the Bill Mott trainee was an impressive debut winner over The Puma before just missing to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth under rider Junior Alvarado. It’s hard to imagine him not getting better with experience and maturity.

Matt: The Florida Derby drew a field of nine that has six 3-year-olds who already have raced on the Kentucky Derby trail. Three of the others are not nominated for the Triple Crown races and are considered morning-line long shots Saturday.

With their recent victories, Commandment and The Puma earned 50 points, which is enough to secure them spots in the gate of the run for the roses on May 2. That leaves a question in my mind about their level of fitness at Gulfstream. Will the race be used to maintain their fitness with the real goal being six weeks away? Or will they be at 100% looking for more points and a big payday from the $1 million purse?

Brian: Although Chief Wallabee is expected to improve, why not Commandment? After a pair of easy wins in his second and third career starts, the well-bred son of Into Mischief had to dig deep in the Fountain of Youth. He showed heart and class that afternoon and is clearly a big threat once again for trainer Brad Cox. It’s worth noting that his recent rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will be riding Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, but Commandment gets a strong replacement in Flavien Prat.

Matt: It is interesting that the top contenders in this running of the Florida Derby all have had success at Gulfstream. Chief Wallabee ran both times at the Florida track. Commandment’s 2026 campaign certainly had this race as a goal after his two stakes victories. Nearly was last in his debut at Aqueduct and then won three in a row after the move to Gulfstream. The Puma had great runs at Tampa but was second in his debut at Gulfstream. For this group of 3-year-olds, the Florida Derby provides a level playing field.

Brian: While Chief Wallabee and Commandment were battling it out four weeks ago, Nearly was resting in his barn awaiting his chance at Grade 1 glory. In three races at Gulfstream Park, the Not This Time colt has absolutely toyed with the competition. Showing good tactical speed, he took over these races quickly and looked strong down the lane. The nine-furlong Florida Derby will be a new test of competition for him, but the Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez tandem has made a habit of winning big races. Another one here would come as no surprise.

Matt: Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has yet to win the Florida Derby. Last year’s Kentucky Derby and horse of the year Sovereignty ran in this Gulfstream Park race and finished second for Mott. Tappan Street was the winner that day, which gave Brad Cox his only victory in the 100-point prep race. Nearly returns from his Jan. 31 win in the Holy Bull for the team of Pletcher and Velazquez. Pletcher won the Florida Derby eight times, including with the Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming in 2017. Johnny V. has six wins in the race, and Orb in 2013, like Always Dreaming, became a winner on the first Saturday in May.

Brian: I was happy to see The Puma prove best in a strong renewal of the Tampa Bay Derby. He was my top pick at nice odds in that race for several reasons. Having run against Chief Wallabee and Renegade in his first two starts, he was battle tested, and in both of those defeats he had a big excuse trip-wise. I continue to like what I see from him in the mornings. A son of a Belmont Stakes winning two-time champion, I don’t expect added distance to be a problem. A maiden no more, he once again will have very playable odds on Saturday and remains a threat.

Matt: Brian, that was a great pick with The Puma, and now he comes back in three weeks presumably as a horse who came out of his win at Tampa in great shape. He is listed at 9-2 on the morning line, which is fourth choice. Chief Wallabee, Commandment and Nearly earned speed figures that best this field and measure up to past horses who were successful in the Kentucky Derby.

Brian: After tangling twice with the talented Paladin last fall in New York, Renegade looked like a serious colt to watch going into 2026. That belief came to fruition when he started his 3-year-old season with a powerful victory in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will stick with him on Saturday, which likely means that he believes Renegade is his Kentucky Derby horse. I tend to agree with his selection over Commandment. This son of Into Mischief looks to be developing into one of the best of the crop and is the one to beat on Saturday.

Matt: Big money and Derby points are up from grabs at Oaklawn on Saturday as a field of nine will race for the $1.5 million purse, Grade 1 status and 200 points. Eight of the horses have prior experience on the Derby trail, and together they have 155 points. Only one of them has a spot in the run for the roses in hand.

Renegade is the 3-2 morning line favorite with 25 points from his two races on the Derby trail. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a strong hand thanks to Renegade and Nearly. Pletcher has five wins in the Arkansas Derby from 2000 to 2018.

Brian: A good juvenile over the all-weather surface at Woodbine, Silent Tactic has proven his class in 2026. He has run in three straight solid stakes races at Oaklawn and continues his forward progression for trainer Mark Casse. A big winner of the Southwest two starts back, he ran too well to lose in his narrow Rebel defeat. With a similar come-from-behind running style as Renegade, he will need a bit of racing luck from his inside draw. Another good performance over a track he clearly likes is expected from the son of Tacitus in the Arkansas Derby.

Matt: Silent Tactic makes his fourth start on Oaklawn's Derby trail and should appreciate the nine-furlong distance. With 50 points already, the Mark Casse runner has enough points for a Derby start. But Casse prefers to run his horses when they fit rather than training up to big races. Casse won the Arkansas Derby last year with Sandman and in 2017 with Classic Empire.

Brian: Two horses who finished well behind Silent Tactic in the Rebel were third-place finisher Litmus Test and fourth-place finisher Blackout Time. Each has the right to run a better race on Saturday. The Bob Baffert-trained Litmus Test was making his first start of the season that afternoon and set a pressured pace. He will look to be forwardly placed here from his outside post but not necessarily on the lead this time. An improved effort could see him in the mix late.

Meanwhile, Blackout Time disappointed in the Rebel stretch run but was making his first start in five months. The son of Not This Time ran very good races at 2. I believe he was a short horse in his sophomore debut and will be stronger this time from the effort. He continues to work well for trainer Kenny McPeek, and I expect him to take a step forward on Saturday.

Matt: Litmus Test will make his fifth start on the Derby trail, where he already has 34 qualifying points. Blinkers come off for the first time after Litmus Test was keen on the lead in the Rebel last time. He should improve in his second start of the year, although the added distance might not be ideal. His 5-1 morning line odds are unusual for a Baffert runner on the Derby trail. The Hall of Fame trainer has five Arkansas Derby victories going back to 2012 with Bodemeister and includes 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and both divisions in 2020.

Blackout Time will make his third start on the Derby trail with a second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He has a couple of layoffs in his record but showed promise as a juvenile. He will have to step forward from his Rebel performance to add to his 15 points with a top-three finish in the Arkansas Derby.

Brian: We have four good options in the Florida Derby, and I believe all four deserve to be part of the Kentucky Derby field. They all also look to be coming into this important race the right way. Although I believe Chief Wallabee might be the one with the best chance in the Kentucky Derby, he is going to get bet and he does not need to win this one. In such an evenly matched race, I am going to go with the odds here, and once again, the odds should be right on The Puma. I thought he beat two very good horses at Tampa Bay, and he has looked good in the mornings since then. The Puma is my pick for a mild Florida Derby upset.

Matt: The big four in the Florida Derby all are in with excellent credentials and present a handicapping challenge. I am going to lean to the horses who have to run big to get into the run for the roses. Nearly has won all three of his starts at Gulfstream with a combined margin of victory of 20 lengths. Pletcher and Velazquez have 14 victories in this race between them. The son of Not This Time (read Brian’s recent article about a top young sire) improved in all four starts and is third choice on the morning line. Nearly is my top pick in the Florida Derby.

Brian: I can’t look past Renegade in the Arkansas Derby. Although he has some tough competition on Saturday, his performance at Tampa Bay was too good to ignore and I believe he has a real shot to be wearing the roses on the first Saturday in May. After having run against Paladin and The Puma in his last three races, I will look for him to show his class at Oaklawn. Renegade is my top pick in the Arkansas Derby.

Matt: I picked Silent Tactic in the Southwest and the Rebel and think he will run well again on Saturday, but he already has a spot in the big race on May 2. I again will lean to a horse who needs to run a race. Running this Saturday rather than next week provides an extra week heading to the first Saturday in May. Renegade has nine-furlong experience in the Remsen, and Ortiz stays on board. Renegade is my top pick at Oaklawn.