HorseCenter: 5 Grade 1 races on Travers Stakes day
Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman analyze, handicap and offer suggested wagers for a blockbuster card Saturday at Saratoga. The anchor leg of a mandatory pay Pick 5 of all Grade 1 races is the 156th edition of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes. Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes hero Sovereignty will be odds-on to add to his championship credentials.
Starting the sequence will be Thorpedo Anna as she is welcomed back to the Spa in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1). The reigning horse of the year will go favored against a field of fillies and mares that includes four other Grade 1 winners. A six-time Grade 1 winner herself, the daughter of Fast Anna will break from the outside post 7 in her first race at Saratoga since her memorable near-miss in last summer’s Travers.
The other three Grade 1 stakes on Saturday at Saratoga will all be run at seven furlongs, and each features a deep cast of talented runners. In the two male races, Book’em Danno will be in search of a third straight graded-stakes victory at the Spa in the Forego Stakes (G1), and Patch Adams hopes to make it two straight Grade 1 scores when he tops a loaded edition of the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. On the female side, Scylla and Hope Road figure to vie for favoritism in a wide-open field set for the Ballerina Stakes (G1).
Brian: Matt, Travers Day is always one of the best cards of the year and once again, I will be thrilled to watch it all next to you on-site at Saratoga. The Travers might not have quite the build-up or suspense that it did last summer, but I look forward to seeing Sovereignty again in person as he marches forward in what looks to be a championship campaign.
The afternoon is much more than only the mid-summer derby and I can’t wait to sink my teeth into this Pick 5 of all Grade 1 races. Although I like the chances of the favorites to bookend the sequence, there should be value available in the middle three legs. The seven-furlong distance is often a fun puzzle and with all the talent lined up in the Jerkens, Ballerina,and Forego, they are certain to be interesting races.
Matt: Brian, what could be better than an all-Grade 1 stakes Pick 5 that includes the Travers? I am looking forward to that challenge for races 9-13.
Fortunately, the small field in the Travers includes Sovereignty. I was lucky to see him win the Belmont Stakes and the Jim Dandy (G2) up here at Saratoga. I am also excited about the human-interest story in the midsummer derby and the chance that Hall of Famer Bill Mott will get his first Travers victory if Sovereignty continues his dominance of the 3-year-old division.
Brian: The Personal Ensign is a race where I am expecting a strong showing from Thorpedo Anna. She has had an eight-week break since her last race and loves the surroundings at Saratoga. Although there are plenty of solid fillies and mares in the race, none of them have her kind of ability. I have no doubt she is best in here, and I expect her to sit a nice trip from a bit off the pace while waiting to pounce from the outside.
Because of the amount of speed in the race, I give Raging Sea the next best chance at the win, but her recent form has been disappointing. Dorth Vader returning to Saratoga is also an interesting exotics play, but Thorpedo Anna is a single for me in my Pick 5. I fully expect the horse of the year to remind us all how good she really is.
Matt: There still seem to be some nay-sayers out there when it comes to Thorpedo Anna. I am certainly not one of them. I guess that those doubters like to point to her speed figures and final race times and think those numbers are not impressive. I, on the other hand, point to her career record of 14: 11-2-0 and earnings of more than $5.1 million. Thorpedo Anna is a winner and the reigning horse of the year. An honor that she earned above the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone.
Brian: The Jerkens Memorial is a strong race in that all eight of the horses in the field would not shock me if they won. There are no throwouts here. If I had to pick only one it might be Verifire. He has dominated in all three starts, can pass horses and proved last time out that he belongs from a class perspective. His stablemate Patch Adams has run two straight huge races and is a deserving favorite.
If the pace collapses, it could be Chancer McPatrick’s day. Midland Money has serious speed, and Madaket Road had an excuse last time. Smoken Wicked likes the track and impressed last month. Both Barnes and Captain Cook are talented and could be dangerous with the right trip. Did I mention this was a good race? Verifire will be my tepid top pick in a wide-open affair.
Matt: The Jerkens is loaded with speed. These are horses who do their best when they are on the lead, and they are fast. Bob Baffert has three in the Jerkens and that probably means speed, speed and speed. Throw in Captain Cook and maybe Smoked Wicked and there will be a hot pace to set things up for the horses who will come from behind. My preference is Patch Adams, although Brian’s pick of Verifire to stay undefeated is also good. Patch Adams has been excellent since he returned to sprinting, and he did not belong on the Kentucky Derby trail. He impressed in his June victory in the Woody Stephens (G1) and has had a couple of months off since then.
Brian: In the Ballerina, I’ve lost faith in the morning-line favorite Scylla after six straight losses, and I want to try to beat her. Hope Road makes plenty of sense from the outside, but she has no wins of late either. Obviously, the two favorites have a chance here, but I see them as vulnerable chalk. Of the two, I like Hope Road better for her ability to be involved from the outset and the company she has been keeping.
This is another race where you could make a case for every horse in the field. They all have something to like, and with a vulnerable favorite, it is an easy race to spread the field. If I did have to pick just one in this inscrutable seven-furlong affair, I would go with the Saffie Joseph-trained Claret Beret. The 4-year-old daughter of Not This Time has flashed talent before but has really come to hand since joining the Joseph stable two starts back. The distance and picking up Irad Ortiz Jr. should suit her just fine.
Matt: The Ballerina is such a tough race to pick a winner as there are so many fillies who on their best day could take down this prestigious Grade 1. Yes, Hope Road does not a have victory since she won four in a row last race, but she lost to Kopion three times this year. Hope Road has been off since May, and she has a series of fast six-furlongs works at Del Mar for trainer Bob Baffert. That is the kind of workout pattern that Baffert puts in horses when they are going to run a big race.
Brian: The Forego features an absolute favorite of mine in Book’em Danno. The son of the underrated stallion Bucchero is as honest as they come, he likes Saratoga, he brings in excellent form and is tactical enough to win from anywhere. He is the favorite, but I think there is still some value on the New Jersey-bred gelding in this deep field. He is the top pick.
There are a number of other dangerous horses in the race, including the defending race winner Mullikin and a pair of consistent runners from the Brad Cox barn in Bishops Bay and Most Wanted. One horse who will get ignored in the betting is Extra Anejo. His career has been full of ups and downs but at his best, I believe he can run with these. He also likes the seven-furlong distance, having won three of four at the trip with the only loss coming in the slop.
Matt: Brian, you and I were born and raised in New Jersey, but Book’em Danno was voted the New Jersey-bred of the year in 2023 and 2024. All joking aside, he is the horse to beat in the Forego. He loves Saratoga and already has a pair of graded-stakes victories at the Spa this year in the True North (G3) and the Vanderbilt (G1). He won with stalking trips and drew off to convincing wins. Scotland is a live long shot who ran against a strong inside bias and finished third, although he was probably much the best. He could sneak into the exotics at a generous price.
Brian: Last but not least, we have the Travers. Although the size of the field is disappointing, it could be interesting tactically as Sovereignty has to deal with the speedy Magnitude without much help. I really don’t think it will matter as good as he is going and especially while running the classic 1 1/4-mile trip. Sovereignty has proven best at the distance and clearly likes Saratoga.
Even if Magnitude is the real deal, I believe the distance will be his undoing. I think he would have a much better chance at nine furlongs. Perhaps if Sovereignty just has a dull day, Magnitude can go the whole way, or maybe Strategic Focus is the only one who passes him. That is not something I will be expecting, however, at this track and distance. And if Bracket Buster puts some pressure on early, that will really help the cause of the favorite. Sovereignty is my top pick.
Matt: Sovereignty towers over this field in every way except speed figures. Magnitude was an average kind of 2-year-old but when he turned 3 and was sent to lead he produced a couple of visually impressive victories in the Risen Star (G2) and the Iowa Derby. Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby in a field of the 19 best 3-year-olds in the country and then won the Belmont Stakes. He beat Journalism and Baeza, who are clearly the second and third best in a very strong sophomore class. Magnitude, on the other hand, beat a field of six undistinguished 3-year-olds at Prairie Meadows.
Brian:
50-cent Pick 5 - Thorpedo Anna with Verifire, Patch Adams, Chancer McPatrick, Madaket Road with Claret Beret, Hope Road, Mystic Lake, Brightwork, Majestic Oops, Halina’s Forte with Book’em Danno, Extra Anejo, Bishops Bay with Sovereignty = $36
50-cent Pick 5 - Thorpedo Anna, with ALL with ALL with Book’em Danno with Sovereignty = $36
Matt:
50-cent Pick 5 - Thorpedo Anna, with ALL with ALL with Book’em Danno with Sovereignty = $36