HorseCenter: Belmont Stakes and Met Mile top picks
The final act of the 2026 Triple Crown will play out Saturday at Saratoga as nine sophomore colts look to add a classic victory to their resume. A big winner in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and a narrow runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, Renegade was installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes.
Chief among his competition Saturday will be the upset winner of the Kentucky Derby, Golden Tempo. The two-time graded-stakes winner will break from the outside post for history-making trainer Cherie DeVaux. The second choice on the morning line and a troubled fourth at Churchill Downs is Chief Wallabee, who will be looking to give Bill Mott his second straight win in the Belmont.
The final leg of the Triple Crown is the headliner, but the weekend at Saratoga is packed with big races. Leading the way will be the historic Met Mile (G1). Second in the rich Saudi Cup (G1) in his most recent outing, Nysos tops a field of seven that also includes the classic winner Journalism and the talented Knightsbridge.
Brian: It’s hard to argue with the run of quality races Renegade has been on since finishing nearly 20 lengths back in his career debut at Saratoga. That margin was likely more to do with the performance of the winner rather than a dislike for the track. In his five races at a mile or more, the son of Into Mischief has been all class while facing serious competition each time. Who knows for sure how much his trouble at the start of the Derby affected him, but regardless, he ran a big race. He will have less speed in this one to set up his rally, but it’s easy to see rider Irad Ortiz Jr. working out a good trip on the Belmont favorite. One of two for the Pletcher and the Repole team, Renegade is a deserving favorite on Saturday.
Matt: Troubled trips on the first Saturday in May are expected and vary in seriousness, but Renegade’s difficulties in the Derby were real and put him much farther back than was desirable. Yet, he had the lead in the stretch and looked like a winner until Golden Tempo was a neck better after having gotten a wide and clear trip from last.
Fast forward to the Belmont Stakes, where I expect Renegade to use his Derby experience and challenges faced on the road to the Triple Crown to get better position in a more manageable nine-horse field on Saturday. Except for his debut race, Renegade came running down the stretch in his other starts.
Brian: Although Renegade can be classified as a confirmed stretch runner, the same or more could be said about Golden Tempo. The Curlin colt was well behind the second-to-last horse heading into the first turn at Churchill Downs, and that style worked to perfection in the Kentucky Derby. I’m not sure the last move will be the best move this time around. A 23-1 shot in his big win, he was the key for a huge score for me Derby weekend. I like to stay loyal to horses that are good to me, but my handicapping says this race will be run quite differently from what we saw on the first Saturday in May. Also, his odds will be significantly lower. I do believe he is a quality horse, but I am leaning elsewhere here.
Matt: When Cherie DeVaux, the trainer of Golden Tempo, was asked whether she is concerned about Golden Tempo getting far behind again in the Belmont, she said that they would not change anything because that is the way the Derby winner runs. That running style worked in his maiden victory and the Lecomte (G3) but ended in a pair of third-place finishes in the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Since the turn of the century, the Belmont Stakes almost always was won by a horse who rallied from less than six lengths behind, and that includes the two times the race was run at Saratoga. Jazil in 2006 was the only deep closer from more than 10 lengths behind to win the Belmont.
Brian: I was surprised to see Chief Wallabee as low as 3-1 on the morning line, but there are a number of factors that point to him being able to improve upon his finish in the Kentucky Derby. Lightly raced going in, he sustained serious bumping and traffic down the stretch. He also was closer to the pace than the top two, and that was not to his advantage on that day. The experience of the Derby has to help here as he finds a smaller field and one with much less early pace. Getting first jump on the leaders should be an advantage in the Belmont. Detractors point to his 0-for-3 record in graded stakes, but I can find little fault in any of those performances after his debut victory.
Matt: Like Renegade, Chief Wallabee faced quality competition on the Kentucky Derby trail when he lost to horses such as Commandment and The Puma. I would be one of those handicappers who points to his only victory coming in a maiden race. In other scenarios, that kind of record might not be an issue, but Triple Crown races have horses who won in those tough situations, such as Renegade, Commandment and Emerging Market. With morning-line odds of 3-1, Chief Wallabee will be too short of a price for me in the Belmont.
Brian: Several others in the field have to be considered here. Chad Brown has three in the race, and two of them should get bet. I did not like Emerging Market at all in the Kentucky Derby after only two lifetime races. I see him as more of a danger here after the experience but not quite enough for me to pick him as a winner. Growth Equity is improving, but he has faced relatively weak fields on his way to this. He could be a pace factor, however, as could Powershift, whom I like a bit better. Finally, there is Commandment, who I don’t believe got a particularly good trip in the Derby. Given his class and ability to get to the finish line, I have to consider him a threat. He, like Chief Wallabee, could be in position to make first run at the leaders. Commandment is dangerous here.
Matt: Chad Brown is seeking his first win in the Belmont Stakes with three horses entered in the race. Emerging Market is one of the five horses to go from the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont Stakes. Brian was correct about Emerging Market’s two-race record being a serious issue in the Derby. In the run for the roses, Emerging Market broke alertly and was keen while racing in sixth position among a group of five horses who were within a length of each other and two lengths behind the early pace leader. Rider Flavien Prat had no opportunity to give him a chance to relax, and down the stretch he faded to 10th. Both Prat and Emerging Market should benefit from experience gained in that Derby trip.
Brian: Nysos is the morning-line favorite for the Met Mile in his first race since running a strong second to Forever Young in the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1). As consistent as he has been for trainer Bob Baffert with a nearly flawless 9: 7-2-0 career mark, this would seem to be a difficult spot for a horse who has not run since his February start overseas. At his best, the son of Nyquist is clearly a big threat here. Working well as always in Southern California and Kentucky, the hope for his supporters would be that his Hall of Fame trainer has him cranked up and ready to go after the layoff and travel. From a pace perspective, he likes to be close early, and the pace in this one should be hot. Finally, breaking from the rail coming out of the Wilson chute is generally considered an advantage.
Matt: Finding negatives about the racing record of Nysos is not easy. His nine-race career began in 2023 with two open-length victories in California, Ge immediately moved into graded-stakes competition, where he was slowed by minor issues that kept him out of the Triple Crown races of 2024. Baffert got him ready for big races after layoffs before, as he won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last year after a three-month break. Last seen, Nysos was second in the Saudi Cup, where he had the lead but was passed by Forever Young, who is regarded by many experts as the best dirt horse in the world. The cutback to the mile at Saratoga seems ideal for the son of Nyquist.
Brian: Journalism should vie for favoritism on Saturday, and like Nysos he also will be making only his second start of the year in this major test. I do think he has the advantage, though, of having raced in the states, and his effort came only seven weeks ago when third behind White Abarrio and Sovereignty. The one mile will be a distance he has not seen since very early in his career, but with all the speed in this race, it should suit him quite nicely. Don’t forget, his biggest career victories, in the Preakness, Haskell (G1) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), all came with a late surge. With a nice pace setup and a good race under his belt at Oaklawn, the three-time Grade 1 winner looks like the one to beat here.
Matt: Journalism had an old-school kind of campaign, with eight starts and those Grade 1 victories while racing in all three legs of Triple Crown. His third-place debut in that stacked field at Oaklawn is by no means a negative. The connections of Journalism stated that the Met Mile was their first important goal of 2026. He is the major competition for Nysos on Saturday.
Brian: In a race with plenty of fast horses, Knightsbridge could be the speed of the speed. The Bill Mott-trained runner did not fire his best shot last time at Churchill Downs, but I would expect him to bounce back with a stronger performance this time. In consecutive races at one mile at Gulfstream Park early this year, the son of Nyquist looked like a legitimate Grade 1 horse. Having said that, he has not proven himself against this type of competition. Antiquarian, meanwhile, is a Grade 1 winner over the Saratoga track and got a perfect prep for this with a stylish win in the Westchester (G3) last time out.
Matt: Antiquarian and Saudi Crown are the other two Grade 1 winners in the Met Mile. Antiquarian did it in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga last summer, and Saudi Crown won the Pennsylvania Derby as a 3-year-old. Antiquarian may be in the best form of his career after an open-lengths victory in the Westchester at Aqueduct following a series of impressive workouts in Florida. Saudi Crown continues to pad his record with two more victories, giving him nine wins. Knightsbridge had a great campaign last year with four wins in a row, but this Met Mile field presents a tough spot to get his first Grade 1 score.
Brian: In the Belmont, I will use Commandment and Powershift a little bit as my odds horses, but I believe the two favorites are the most likely winners. Renegade and Chief Wallabee both ran big in losing efforts in the Kentucky Derby, and I expect they will have every opportunity to turn the tables on Golden Tempo this time around. They both have the advantage of being stabled at Saratoga, and I believe they are less pace-dependent than the Kentucky Derby winner. Although I could easily see either Renegade or Chief Wallabee winning on Saturday, I will go with the horse who has proven the ability to get to the wire first against quality competition. Renegade is my Belmont Stakes top pick.
Matt: There are plenty of reasons to back Commandment, Chief Wallabee or Renegade as the possible winner of the Belmont. Renegade did the most with the worst trip out of those three horses coming out of the Kentucky Derby. Emerging Market has the potential to be one of the top 3-year-olds of the year. He was my pick in the Derby, and I will stick with my evaluation of his ability. Emerging Market is the top pick in the Belmont Stakes.
Brian: I am going to go off the grid a bit with my top selection in the historic Met Mile. Although I consider Journalism the one to beat on Saturday, I am expecting relatively low odds on the Michael McCarthy-trained runner. This race sets up for the late kick of last year’s Preakness winner, but it also looks to be the right setup for Antiquarian. He has proven to be very good over this track before and may well be ready to have his best season yet as a fully mature 5-year-old. I sure liked what I saw in his return to the races five weeks ago. Antiquarian is my upset pick in the Met Mile.
Matt: Nysos has done almost nothing wrong in his career, and when he didn’t win in February he was a length behind Forever Young in the Saudi Cup. He went to Kentucky after his barn moved to Churchill and has been training smartly. If anyone knows how to have a horse ready for a big race, it is Baffert. Nysos is the top pick in the Met Mile.