HorseCenter: Belmont early look, Shoemaker Mile top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman look ahead to the 2025 edition of the $2 million Belmont Stakes slated for June 7. The final leg of the Triple Crown once again will be contested at Saratoga going 1 1/4 miles because of the rebuilding of Belmont Park.

This year’s running looks to have an intriguing field featuring Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and possibly Preakness hero Journalism.

While Sovereignty skipped the middle jewel to wait for the Belmont, Journalism made the most of the short rest with a thrilling victory at Pimlico. The decision on the Michael McCarthy trainee is pending after he scored an improbable victory busting through horses and flying late to run down Gosger in the final yards two weeks after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby as the favorite.

We also offer analysis and top picks for the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, which will be run Monday. The turf test for older males is part of a big day of holiday racing from Santa Anita, which also includes the Gamely (G1) and Hollywood Gold Cup (G2).

Brian: After the disappointment of not having the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty in the field, I warmed up to the Preakness field and like most was happy to see a great performance by the winner. Journalism could finish only second of the 19 on the first Saturday in May, but he once again proved himself to be at the summit among 3-year-olds with a courageous performance in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. 

After a tough race in both the Derby and the Preakness, it will be interesting to see whether he is in the starting gate for the final leg. Remember how poorly Mystik Dan ran in the Belmont last year after a first and second in the first two legs. Regardless of whether he runs on June 7, he moves back into the top spot in the division, in my opinion.

Matt: It is not only Mystik Dan who did not run well in the Belmont Stakes after good performances in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. I heard the NBC broadcaster Randy Moss cite a statistic that of the last 30 horses to take part in all three legs of the Triple Crown, 25 of them ran worse in the Belmont than the Preakness, and that includes Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify.

This week’s NTRA top 3-year-old poll had Journalism moving into the top spot by a 20-11 margin. Sovereignty was No. 1 after the Derby. I see that you put Journalism on top, but I left Sovereignty as the best 3-year-old. I thought Journalism’s performance in the Preakness was great, but Sovereignty won the most important race in America.

Brian: Of the horses most likely to run in the Belmont Stakes, the conversation obviously starts with Sovereignty. I was impressed with his stretch run in his debut last summer at the Spa, and he has continued to progress with each start for trainer Bill Mott. Physically, he appears built for the classic distance, and he showed it at Churchill Downs over a track he clearly likes. If Journalism does run in the Belmont, it will be interesting to see which colt is favored. Like it or not, having skipped the Preakness should have him ready for another strong run in the Belmont.

Matt: Since 2000, 13 of the Belmont Stakes winners came to the race having skipped the Preakness after running in the Kentucky Derby. Four Belmont winners came from a Preakness win, and that includes the two Triple Crown winners along with Afleet Alex and Point Given, who also ran in the Derby.

Brian: It’s nothing short of amazing the horses that Puca has dropped in three consecutive seasons. Mage won the Kentucky Derby, Dornoch won the Belmont, and I truly believe that Baeza has the potential to be the best of the three. He still has plenty to prove, as he has yet to win a stakes race, but his performances in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby were enough for me to believe he is the real deal. In the Derby, he had to wait at a key juncture and raced greenly, but he finished well and galloped out like a developing star. I think he will have a big shot on June 7.

Matt: Baeza joins Sovereignty as horses coming out of the Kentucky Derby that are serious contenders to win the Belmont.

Brian: It appears the runner-up of the Preakness will not come back in three weeks. Gosger earned me some money as my top long shot in the Preakness, and he very nearly won the whole thing. He got an ideal trip stalking the speed but displayed how much he has developed by easily taking over the race at the head of the stretch. Only a super effort by Journalism got him beat. Better with each start for trainer Brendan Walsh, the Nyquist colt once again would have had odds and shouldn't have been dismissed if he went in the Belmont. 

There does not seem to be much speed pointing for the Belmont, which could give Rodriguez a real tactical advantage in this 10-furlong affair. Trained by Bob Baffert, he has a win over Baeza early in his career and generally has run against solid competition. The son of Authentic showed in the Wood Memorial (G2) that he wants to freewheel it on the front end, and that is exactly where he should be in a few weeks. Hopefully, he is completely healthy after scratching out of the first two legs.

Matt: In my odds and analysis preview article for the Preakness, Gosger was my live long shot, and he certainly lived up to it as he looked like a winner until the final 100 yards of the race. I was able to cash the Preakness trifecta thanks to his effort. Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form that Gosger most likely will be given more time to develop and aim for later races such as the Haskell (G1) and the Jim Dandy (G2).

Rodriguez would be a serious contender in the Belmont under ideal circumstances, but I am dubious about his current status. And even if he does get to the race, he would have to run 1 1/4 miles after a two-month layoff and missed training the past few weeks.

Brian: Monday’s Shoemaker Mile should be an interesting race with nine older turf males entered in the Memorial Day turf affair. Led by the returning Goliad, there should be plenty of speed in the race. A sharp gate-to-wire winner of the Mint Million Stakes (G3) at Kentucky Downs last summer, he was unable to carry his speed when last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but there is little shame to that. Fresh speed is always dangerous, and this 8-year-old should be out winging it on the front end.

Matt: This is a distinguished field in the Shoemaker with seven graded stakes winners led by the 4-year-old Formidable Man, who has a pair of Grade 1 victories since November. Looking through the field, I see that three of those seven horses had recent front-end wins.

Brian: Several others in the race have good early speed, including the Seminole Chief and Cabo Spirit. Both won stakes races in their last outing, one at Gulfstream Park and one at Santa Anita, and they look most likely to prevent Goliad from having things too easy on the front end. 

Adding more overall quality to the field are graded-stakes winners Formidable Man and King of Gosford. The former is trained by two-time Preakness winner Michael McCarthy and is tactical enough to win from anywhere. A winner of the Kilroe Mile (G1) last out, he is a major threat here. Likewise, King of Gosford is classy and versatile and once again will have the services of Flavien Prat.

Matt: The TimeformUS pace projector agrees and labelled the race with the red, or fast pace, button. Generally speaking, one-mile stakes races on the turf are run quickly and produce fast final times, especially in California where it doesn’t rain much and hard, firm courses are the norm. 

Brian: Several others in the deep field could step up on Monday, but the most interesting of the rest for me is Mi Hermano Ramon. The Creative Cause gelding ran very good races last year for trainer Mark Glatt, including a rallying victory in the Seabiscuit (G2) and a strong second to Johannes in the San Gabriel (G2). His rally was too late last time in the Kilroe Mile, but he should get a much faster pace to run at on Monday.

Matt: Mi Hermano Ramon is certainly one of the late runners who should get an ideal pace scenario thanks to that group of speedy grass specialists who will force fast early fractions. Atitlan, Formidable Man, Seal Team and Zio Jo should be expected to do their best running at the end of the mile.

Brian: With a strong early pace expected in the Shoemaker Mile, I am going to look for the winner to come from off the pace. Mi Hermano Ramon fits the bill nicely. The beaten favorite last time, he just didn’t get the type of early fractions he needed. Still, he was only beaten by just over a length in the Kilroe Mile. Given a nearly guaranteed fast pace in this one, it should be an ideal setup for the multiple stakes winner. Mi Hermano Ramon is my top pick in Monday’s Shoemaker Mile.

Matt: My top pick also is going to be one of the late runners. Formidable Man won four of his last five starts, with the only loss coming in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), where for some reason he was sent to the lead and backed up down the stretch. The Gulfstream turf course is sandy and quite different from the California grass, so the bad performance can be forgiven. In those four victories, Formidable Man beat five of the horses in the Shoemaker field. Even with all those wins in his past performances, the Michael McCarthy-runner was 5-1 in the Kilroe Mile. Formidable Man is my top pick.