HorseCenter: 2026 Preakness Stakes top picks and wagers
This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman offer analysis, top picks and suggested wagers for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. The $2 million Preakness Stakes lacks the star power of the Kentucky Derby, but it does offer an intriguing handicapping challenge. A full field of 14 has entered the 1 3/16-mile test, which will be run at Laurel Park this year with no clear favorite.
The Chad Brown-trained Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Iron Honor was selected to be the morning line choice, but at 9-2, he is anything but a heavy favorite. Others who are shown plenty of respect by the oddsmaker in the 151st edition of the Preakness include Taj Mahal, Chip Honcho, Incredibolt, Ocelli and Napoleon Solo.
Brian: The first thing that jumps out at me in handicapping this year’s Preakness is the amount of early pace. Napoleon Solo, the romping winner of last year’s Champagne Stakes (G1), leads the way among the speed, but there are 10 other horses in the race who have been on the lead or pressed the pace in recent races. That leaves only Ocelli, Bull by the Horns and Incredibolt as horses who prefer to come from off the pace. Something has to give with 11 horses looking to be forwardly placed while running 9 1/2 furlongs. Like I warned before the Kentucky Derby, this contested and strong early pace scenario strongly favors the late runners.
Matt: My count of horses in the Preakness who prefer to race on or close to the lead was 10. They all cannot get to that desired spot leading the race, which means several of them will end up having to race from an unfamiliar stalking position and that might not be a bad thing. However, that is not a factor that I would be able to predict.
Advantage goes to the closers, and I would have to consider Talkin in that category also. The Danny Gargan runner gets Irad Ortiz to ride after Silent Tactic was unable to compete in the Preakness. Talkin won his 2-year-old debut at Saratoga running from off the pace in a race that included Further Ado and then rallied from last to second in the Champagne.
Brian: The morning-line top choice is an interesting runner because of his barn and his lack of seasoning. A son of Nyquist, Iron Honor has run only three times but enters the Preakness with a very similar form pattern as Chad Brown’s two previous winners of the race. Cloud Computing and Early Voting came to Maryland after losing the Wood Memorial in their third career start, just like Iron Honor. Brown’s latest Preakness starter had a rough run into the first turn and was not embarrassed in the Wood Memorial (G2). With blinkers off and the patient Flavien Prat picking up the mount, he could be one of the 11 speed types who relaxes early and avoids the contentious pace.
Matt: Iron Honor fits in that category of contenders who will have to race from behind because they are unlikely to be fast enough to be on the pace and and whose connections recognize that to try would most likely be a losing strategy.
Brian: Among the late runners, a strong case could be made for both Ocelli and Incredibolt. Trained by Whit Beckman, Ocelli looked to be going nowhere fast when well beaten by Incredibolt in the Virginia Derby. Further inspection of that race reveals a horse with talent who was shying away from contact in the stretch run. Blinkers were removed for the Wood Memorial, and he rallied past Napoleon Solo and Iron Honor to be a good third. Adding rider Tyler Gaffalione to the mix in the Kentucky Derby, he took advantage of the early pace and rallied for an even better third. Despite still never having won in seven career starts, the late-running son of Connect looks to be a serious player on Saturday.
Matt: Along with his status as a maiden, Ocelli was sent off at 70-1 in the Kentucky Derby because the Wood Memorial has been one of the Derby preps that handicappers are very quick to dismiss. In retrospect, it is easy to see that Ocelli headed to Kentucky as a horse who had progressed in almost every race. In the run for the roses, he got an ideal pace scenario and looked like a winner for a while until Golden Tempo and Renegade made the same kind of move but did it later in the race. Normally, you would look past Ocelli since he got a perfect race flow and now is one of the favorites. But in the Preakness, he will get a fast pace again and rider Tyler Gaffalione is back on board with lessons learned two weeks ago.
Brian: As for Incredibolt, I was not a fan of using the one-turn Virginia Derby seven weeks before the first Saturday in May as his last prep for the big one at Churchill Downs. But he ran a solid race in the Kentucky Derby. He has a little more tactical speed than Golden Tempo, Renegade and Ocelli, and he could not quite match their sweeping rallies. Still, he overcame a sound bump in the stretch and was running with purpose late to finish within four lengths of the winner. In the Virginia Derby, his late kick overwhelmed the competition in impressive fashion. With the experience of the Kentucky Derby under his belt, he now should be considered one of the horses to beat here.
Matt: It sure looks like Riley Mott took a long, hard look at the probable Preakness field and saw a pace scenario that fit Incredibolt perfectly. He also would have seen a field that had only two other horses who won a graded-stakes race. Mott made a last-minute decision to enter his horse, who won twice on the Derby trail and gained valuable experience finishing sixth, knowing that the Belmont Stakes is expected to have a much stronger field. The Preakness linemaker agreed with Mott’s handicapping ability when he made Incredibolt one of the horses at 5-1.
Brian: Drawn to the rail, Taj Mahal is another horse we must talk about in this Preakness field. Unbeaten in three career starts, all of which have come at Laurel Park, the Nyquist colt took a step forward last time when he blitzed the field in the nine-furlong Federico Tesio Stakes going gate to wire. I don’t believe he beat much, but we will learn a bit more when Let’s Go Lando, who has finished second and third behind Taj Mahal recently, runs in the Sir Barton earlier in the card. The Brittany Russell-trained Taj Mahal certainly is at home over the track, but he likely will need his speed to avoid serious traffic from the inside post. Given that consideration, I believe this might be a tough task for the undefeated colt.
Matt: Taj Mahal also was assigned 5-1 morning-line odds and there's no doubt that he will take plenty of action at the betting windows. Horses who are undefeated are always popular. After Cherie DeVaux became the first woman trainer to win the Kentucky Derby it would certainly be a great story if Brittany Russell could continue with another Triple Crown race won by a woman. Russell was the leading trainer on the Maryland circuit for the last three years, so she certainly knows her way to the winner’s circle at Laurel.
Brian: Of the others, I have a hard time throwing any horse completely out. Napoleon Solo could be dangerous if he is allowed any breathing room on the front end, as he should be ready for his best in his third start of the year. Talkin also is making his third start of 2026 and could be ready to take a step forward with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. I didn’t like the trip Chip Honcho got in the Louisiana Derby (G2). If he can relax just a bit early on under Jose Ortiz, he is a threat to bounce back here. With the projected fast pace, perhaps Saffie Joseph Jr. has Bull by the Horns turning the corner and ready to run a big race. And for the rest not mentioned, I at least see the potential of upside for any of them.
Matt: It is very difficult to differentiate between the previously identified 10 Preakness runners who would prefer to be forwardly placed Saturday. Napoleon Solo is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and he is probably the fastest horse, but I just do not have confidence that the Preakness distance is in his wheelhouse. Far more likely is that he will be an excellent one-turn horse as the summer progresses.
Brian: As mentioned, I see the pace of the Preakness as a key handicapping factor. If this race runs to paper, there should be a charge from the starting gate to the first turn, which comes up relatively quickly. This could mean a demanding pace for many and a rough trip for some. If, however, enough riders see the potential pace and decide to hold back early, it could turn the advantage toward talented speed horses. Like the Kentucky Derby, though, I do believe the safest place to be early will be toward the back of the pack, letting the scrum unfold in front of them.
Matt: All of my wagers this weekend will focus on the advantage that the four late runners have in the Preakness. Ocelli, Talkin, Bull by the Horns and Incredibolt will be prominent in my wagers. In the Friday feature, the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) has a wide-open field of 10, and I prefer two of the 3-year-old fillies who are not among the top four choices in the morning line. Ivy Girl for up-and-coming young trainer Amelia Green is 20-1, and Holly’s Holiday has 6-1 odds for Kenny McPeek and Flavien Prat.
Brian: Although I believe this is a relatively wide-open edition of the Preakness, I am committed to play the late runners, just as I was in the Kentucky Derby. I believe there is enough speed in here to make it difficult for all the horses out there early. So Ocelli and Incredibolt will be the two on all my tickets. They both bring good form into the race, and I believe their experience in the Kentucky Derby will only help them here. Of the two, I will side with the horse who ran better in the Derby and should have higher odds. Ocelli is my top pick in Preakness 151.
Matt: I mentioned earlier that Talkin raced impressively from off the pace in his first two starts last year, but his form this year is a bit muddied up. In the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) he was too close to the pace and came up empty in the stretch. Then in the Blue Grass (G1), his running line makes it look like he faded to be a distant third. In that race, Further Ado got loose on the lead and just blitzed, the field leaving the late runners without a chance on that day. Now Talkin gets one of the best riders in Irad Ortiz. He will know to let this Danny Gargan runner settle in the back in the early going and come running as he did in the Kentucky Derby on Renegade. I also like Incredibolt and Ocelli, but Talkin will come with better odds and is my top pick in the Preakness.