HorseCenter: 2026 Kentucky Derby, Oaks leading contenders

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a deeper look at their top contenders for a pair of spring classics at Churchill Downs. In Kentucky Derby 2026, Renegade, Further Ado and Commandment look to be the top three favorites among the 20 3-year-olds who will line up for the 1 1/4 miles next Saturday.

Meanwhile, a deep and contentious field of 14 is shaping up for this year'sn Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. The female counterpart to the run for the roses will be contested at nine furlongs next Friday. The top challengers for the lilies include graded-stakes winners Percy’s Bar, Meaning, Zany and Prom Queen.

Kentucky Oaks top contenders

Counting Stars, (Honor A.P.), Mark Casse.

Brian: This West Point Thoroughbreds filly had it easy last time out in the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. In winning for the fourth time in seven starts, the daughter of Honor A. P. was in contention early and took over the race on the far turn before cruising home. The confidence builder should set her up perfectly for this major test. It is worth noting that she made her career debut at Churchill Downs, where she powered away from her competition late. Perhaps what I like most about Counting Stars is her strong ability to finish off races. In a contentious field of evenly matched fillies going 1 1/8 miles, the race could very well be won by the horse who is strongest in the final furlong. Trainer Mark Casse is having a good year, and this one should have attractive odds in the Kentucky Oaks.

Meaning, (Gun Runner), Michael McCarthy.

Matt: Meaning has been well thought of since her debut in September when she won at Los Alamitos by more than three lengths as an odds-on favorite in a seven-horse field. She then ran a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in her first stop on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. Meaning continued her Oaks preparation with a pair of wins at Santa Anita. She used another stalking trip to win the Las Virgenes in February and the 100-point Santa Anita Oaks (G2) in April by two lengths. She heads to Churchill Downs as the top filly on the points leaderboard and certainly one of the morning-line favorites.

Zany, (American Pharoah), Todd Pletcher.

Brian: Zany will need to rebound after getting beaten by Percy’s Bar last time in the Ashland Stakes (G1), but it would not surprise me at all to see her do that. She lost ground to the winner at a key juncture of the race but ran on well for second. Before the loss, the Repole runner had rattled off three straight impressive victories. In the Demoiselle (G2), she handled the nine-furlong distance. In the Suncoast, she easily defeated the talented Life of Joy. The Ashland, at a different track and a different distance than the Oaks, was not her day. But now with better odds in the Kentucky Oaks, she is on my short list of top contenders with the talent to win this.

Prom Queen, (Quality Road), Brad Cox.

Matt: Prom Queen will give Brad Cox a chance to win the Oaks for the fourth time since 2018 and make it two years in a row after Good Cheer’s victory in 2025. The daughter of Quality Road began her career in January in the first of three starts at Gulfstream Park. She was the favorite in her debut going a one-turn mile in a field of eight and finished second after racing on the lead. Three weeks later, Prom Queen got the maiden victory racing from behind, this time by eight lengths. Cox moved her on to the Oaks trail in the 100-point Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), where she was again an impressive winner with another stalking trip.

Percy's Bar, (Upstart), Ben Colebrook.

Brian: It was only fitting to see Percy’s Bar return and triumph in the Ashland Stakes. After all, she had zero luck in her final two starts last year. In the Alcibiades (G1), she was probably best but was taken down from the win spot for interference. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, the daughter of Upstart fought on well to be third after being really bothered. With a little luck, things could have been far different for her at 2. In the Ashland, things went her way as the rail opened up wide for her burst of speed. Having worked very well for the return, it was no surprise to see her run well, but it still was a very impressive performance. It will be hard to blame bettors if she goes off favored in the Oaks. She runs well every time and must be respected.

Explora, (Blame), Bob Baffert.

Matt: Explora comes to Kentucky with four victories from seven starts as the favorite each time for Bob Baffert. Baffert won the Oaks three times, including with Abel Tasman in 2017 and Silverbulletday in 1999 . Both went on to be named champion 3-year-olds. Like many Baffert 2-year-olds, Explora won her debut with a front-end effort as an odds-on favorite by almost five lengths at the Del Mar summer meeting. Since then, she raced in only stakes adding victories in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita in October, the Santa Ynez in her first start in 2026 and most recently in the Honey Bee (G3) at Oaklawn in March. Explora will come with the highest odds of her career in the Oaks as a possible fifth choice.

Kentucky Derby top contenders

Renegade, (Into Mischief), Todd Pletcher.

Matt: Renegade is projected to be the lukewarm favorite in the Kentucky Derby. He made his way to the run for the roses with three starts on the Derby trail at three tracks. The son of Into Mischief broke his maiden as a 2-year-old in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, which drew one of its strongest fields in many years. After a few months off, he returned in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa, where he beat a field of nine by almost four lengths. Renegade moved to Oaklawn to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) by four lengths with one of the most visually impressive stretch runs on the 2026 Derby trail. Irad Ortiz Jr. chose to ride Renegade for Todd Pletcher over three other Derby probable runners whom he had ridden to victory in prep races.

Further Ado, (Gun Runner), Brad Cox.

Brian: If there is a horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby who could turn out to be something special, Further Ado would be the first one I point to. The son of Gun Runner has been sensational since stretching out to two turns. His maiden victory at Keeneland was something you just don’t see very often. Some were down on his second-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but I thought the tough race was a perfect start to the season as far as building him to bigger things to come. The Blue Grass (G1) win was electric, even if he didn’t beat much. It is also a prep that was easy enough where I do not expect him to bounce off the effort. Picking up the veteran rider John Velazquez was a brilliant move, in my opinion, as he is a master at getting horses with tactical speed to have something left for the stretch drive. With a win already over the track, I consider Further Ado the one to beat in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Commandment, (Into Mischief), Brad Cox.

Matt: Commandment ended on top of the Derby points leaderboard based on his two victories at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). Since the points era began in 2013, the Florida Derby was the most productive prep race, having produced six Kentucky Derby winners. Commandment has been undefeated since running fourth in his debut at Keeneland. Just as important as his 150 qualifying points is the fact that his maiden win was at Churchill Downs last year going seven furlongs. Trainer Brad Cox has a strong hand in the Derby with three serious win contenders as he tries to add to his prior win in the run for the roses with Mandaloun.

Chief Wallabee, (Constitution), Bill Mott.

Brian: Trainer Bill Mott has had good luck in the Kentucky Derby of late. Country House outran his odds and was put up via disqualification in 2019, and then Sovereignty ran to glory last year. My point being the veteran trainer knows how to have a horse ready for the demands of the run for the roses. While it’s true that Chief Wallabee has had only three lifetime starts, he gained plenty of experience by running against top competition in each. In his half-length, third-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1), I saw a horse a bit green and still learning. Bumped from the inside and outside down the stretch, I also saw a horse full of talent and one who will relish 10 furlongs. Looking the picture of health nine days out, I believe he is all set to move forward at just the right time.

Emerging Market, (Candy Ride), Chad Brown.

Matt: Emerging Market heads to America’s most challenging race with an undefeated record, but he has made only two starts. Chad Brown will try to get a Kentucky Derby victory, which has eluded him thus far. Historically Brown bypassed the first Saturday in May to look for a better spot in the Triple Crown in the Preakness, but not so with Emerging Market. The son of Candy Ride was an impressive maiden winner in February going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs. From there he stepped on to the Derby trail to win the 100-point Louisiana Derby (G2) by a head after a stretch duel, beating three horses who are expected in the run for the roses. Plenty handicappers will look elsewhere because of Emerging Market’s lack of experience and he will come with generous odds around 15-1.

The Puma, (Essential Quality), Gustavo Delgado.

Brian: Out of a Belmont Stakes winner and two-time champion, there is good reason to believe that The Puma will be able to handle the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Gustavo Delgado, who won the Derby three years ago with Mage, the flashy chestnut did not make his career debut until Jan. 10, but he has made up for lost time by running against top horses in each of his four races. I believe his trips in his first two races were not good, and that’s why he was my top pick in both the Tampa Bay Derby, where he beat Further Ado, and in a whisker of a miss in the Florida Derby. Once again, I expect very attractive odds on the push-button colt. He won’t be my top pick this time around but still is a must-use for me on the first Saturday in May.