HorseCenter: 2026 Kentucky Derby & Oaks top picks, wagers

After all the anticipation, Kentucky Derby 2026 is finally here. This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman continue their coverage of the $5 million classic at Churchill Downs with analysis of the 20-horse field, top picks and suggested wagers. The Arkansas Derby hero Renegade is the morning-line choice, but no favorite has won the first leg of the Triple Crown since Justify in 2018.

Loaded with quality races on Friday and Saturday, the weekend under the fabled twin spires is much more than the Kentucky Derby. The most prestigious of the other races is the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks. Contested on Friday evening at a distance of 1 1/8 miles, the Grade 1 race for 3-year-old fillies is the female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby. The Todd Pletcher-trained Zany is the morning-line favorite in the field of 14, but the list of serious contenders is a long one.

Brian: I’m not certain I can recall a more wide-open edition of the Kentucky Oaks, and I’ve been enjoying this race for more than half a century. Zany could wind up the favorite, but I am not so sure after she lost in the Ashland (G1) last time at Keeneland. I do believe the daughter of American Pharoah is a serious talent, and she lost major ground to the winner Percy’s Bar in the turn for home. The Ashland winner also should get plenty of attention and has been a class filly from the start. Both are major threats in here, but I don’t know if I want any horse as the favorite in this type of field.

Matt:  In the Kentucky Derby, the boys face the challenge of the 1 1/4-mile distance. Most of the fillies in the Oaks face the test of running 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Only three of them have gone nine furlongs in either the Gazelle (G3) or the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct.

Brian, you mentioned the second-place finish of Zany. She is one of the fillies who has gone the Oaks distance already. She won the Demoiselle in December as part of the three victories that kicked off her career. Always a Runner and Pashmina finished first and second in the Gazelle in a 1 1/8-mile, two-turn test.

Six of the fillies were winners of their final prep race for the Oaks, and that is another reason this year’s run for the lilies is such a handicapping challenge. In my Oaks full-field analysis that was posted Tuesday morning, I identified six of the fillies as win contenders with odds ranging from 4-1 to 12-1.

Brian: Meaning is a filly whom I’ve held high hopes for since her career debut, and she has done little to dampen my admiration in four career starts. It will be interesting to see how the California-based fillies stack up against the rest, but the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) winner certainly is entitled to move forward in her third start of the year. Meanwhile, Prom Queen is even more lightly raced and sure looked good in her three progressively harder starts at Gulfstream Park for trainer Brad Cox. Both Meaning and Prom Queen have enough tactical speed to stay in touch early and strike on the turn. I will be watching the toteboard to see if either is let go at attractive odds. 

Matt: The big-barn, big-name trainers Bob Baffert, Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher combined have won the Oaks 10 times. Baffert won with standout fillies Silverbulletday, Plum Pretty and most recently with Abel Tasman. He had two entered this year, but Bottle of Rouge scratched leaving Explora, who won the Honeybee (G3) in March. Cox won the lilies last year with Good Cheer and earlier with Shedaresthedevil and Monomoy Girl. Cox has Prom Queen in this year’s race. Pletcher won four times beginning with Ashado and Rags to Riches and then Princess of Sylmar and Malathaat. Pletcher is the trainer of Zany.

Chad Brown and Mark Casse are also big-barn big-name trainers who come to 2026 without a win in the Oaks or the Derby. Could this be the year that one of them breaks through in these two biggest-name American races? Brown is represented by Always a Runner in the Oaks this year, and Casse has Search Party and Counting Stars.

Brian: The Kentucky Oaks is filled with talented fillies, and there should be a very honest pace. Explora and Dazzling Dame are among those who should make for a good run into the first turn. Because of this, I could easily see a filly coming from well off the pace to win Friday. The two late runners who interest me most here are Always a Runner and Counting Stars. The former has made only two career starts, but I love the way the daughter of Gun Runner has looked down the stretch for trainer Chad Brown. Counting Stars, on the other hand, is quite a bit more experienced but continues to show that she can finish strongly in her races. Neither filly would surprise me with solid odds here.

Matt: With so many win contenders in this year’s field there will be at best a lukewarm favorite, as indicated by Zany’s 4-1 morning line odds. Still the strategy should be to lean to higher odds in this evenly matched field.

Brian: Much like my opinion in the Kentucky Oaks, I see this Kentucky Derby as a wide-open affair. There are a number of horses here who would not surprise me if they won on Saturday. But I do believe the conversation should start with Further Ado and Renegade. The former has run two of the best races of the crop in his maiden and the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Both came at Keeneland, leaving a question of whether he is as good at other tracks, but I expect a strong performance from Further Ado under John Velazquez in the Derby. Renegade, meanwhile, looked like a very promising 2-year-old, and he has blossomed this year with two powerful, rallying victories in the Sam F. Davis and Arkansas Derby (G1). I think the inside post position will do him no favors, but if he can work out a good trip under Irad Ortiz Jr., look out.

Matt:  When handicapping the Kentucky Derby, there are a few historical statistics that I like to keep in mind. Brian mentioned that no favorite has won since Justify in 2018, but keep in mind that he was last of a six-year streak of top-choice winners. Since the points era began in 2013, every Derby victory was by a horse who had run in what is now a 100-point qualifier and six of them had won the Florida Derby (G1).

Renegade and Further Ado will be part of my Derby wagers as they both have had visually impressive victories in 100-point preps and are trained by Derby-winning trainers Pletcher and Cox. Their post-position draws are not ideal. Renegade will break from the rail as regular rider Ortiz will try to get his first Derby win. Further Ado goes from post 18 with three-time Derby winner John Velazquez aboard.

Brian: Although the performances of Further Ado and Renegade legitimize them as potential favorites, I also believe the class of competition angle points to the Florida Derby as a prep that cannot be ignored. Commandment, The Puma and Chief Wallabee all fired at Gulfstream Park that afternoon, and the quality experience should suit them well moving forward. Each of the three has faced tough competition before that big prep and will come into the race battle-tested for class. All three must be respected, but of the three I like the third-place finisher the best for the Kentucky Derby. Chief Wallabee is trained by a master in Bill Mott, and I expect the added blinkers to add a level of focus to a quickly maturing colt. He certainly looks the part since arriving at Churchill Downs.

Matt: Commandment returns to Churchill Downs with four wins in a row, going back to his maiden under the twin spires in November in his second career start followed by three stakes at Gulfstream – the Mucho Macho Man, the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby. Yet somehow, Commandment seems to be the forgotten horse, with a few others like Chief Wallabee and The Puma in the running for this year’s “buzz” horse.

Brian: Led by Six Speed and Pavlovian, I see strong early fractions unfolding in this year’s run for the roses. There is a whole group of horses that should be ready to press the pace out of the packed starting gate, including the talented Further Ado. With a contentious early pace and the demanding 1 1/4-mile distance, I believe there is a good chance for the late runners to do very well in this year’s Derby. There are a few long shots who could fit the bill. Of the group, Golden Tempo is the one I like the best. The son of Curlin has shown in multiple preps the ability to swoop past tiring horses. If things go his way on Saturday, he is dangerous here. There is a reason he will have nice odds, but looking for all the pieces to come together for a career-best effort from a horse under the radar is the beauty of handicapping.

Matt: Since the change in Derby qualification in 2013, only three front-runners were able to handle the 10-furlong distance and cross the finish line first. Authentic, Medina Spirit and Maximum Security had gate-to-wire trips but, as we know, the latter two were disqualified from first. The other 10 Derby winners raced from off the pace with four deep closers, one from mid-pack and five stalkers. The enormous crowd and all of the excitement that goes with it ensure that the Derby has a legitimate pace that tends to favor the closers.

Brian: It’s time for top picks. Let’s get to it. I’ve narrowed my preference to a top three in the Kentucky Oaks, and it is the three fillies who I expect to be finishing well. Zany, Always a Runner and Counting Stars all have the kick and stamina to win this tough race in the final eighth of a mile. Although I like all three, there is room for only one top pick and that will be Zany. Trained by Pletcher, she comes into this race much like Sovereignty did into last year’s Kentucky Derby. Just as the 2025 Derby winner ran a good race to be second in the Florida Derby before firing on all cylinders in the big one, I expect the talented daughter of American Pharoah to take a step forward off a loss that did not set up well for her. This is the one they all want to win, and I believe she is the most talented filly in the field. Zany is my top pick in the Kentucky Oaks.

Matt: At this point, a lot of racing experts seem to be making Always a Runner their choice to win the Oaks, which makes it likely that she will end up with odds below her 10-1 morning-line odds. Still there will be plenty who will question her two-race experience and the fact that she prepped at Aqueduct in the Gazelle. She was well-liked as a $1.05 million yearling purchase who was expected to debut as a 2-year-old, but she was delayed by a virus that swept through Chad Brown’s barn in the summer. Three or four other fillies will get plenty of betting action, so Always a Runner will still have attractive odds. Always a Runner is my top pick in the Kentucky Oaks.

Brian: More than any other horse, Chief Wallabee has looked the part of a class horse who is flourishing since arriving at Churchill Downs. In the Florida Derby, which was only his third lifetime start, I got the impression that he was still a touch green. His Hall of Fame trainer has added blinkers on Saturday to improve his focus. I also expect the experience of the Florida Derby will help. He was bumped from both sides in the stretch run and still finished well that day. I also like the fact that despite having only three career starts, the son of Constitution has faced serious competition in each race. This is a tough field and there are many possible winners, but I really like this colt's upside and believe he will be happy going the 1 1/4-mile distance. Chief Wallabee is my top pick in the big one.

Matt: Emerging Market burst on to the Derby trail when he went two turns to win his February debut at Tampa with a closing effort that earned a speed figure that fits in the range of past winners of the run for the roses. He then won the 100-point Louisiana Derby (G2) which is the longest of the Derby preps. Like his stablemate Always a Runner, he comes to Churchill with only two starts. Gone are the days that Derby horses all had extensive resumes like Secretariat with 13 starts and Spectacular Bid, who ran 14 times. Trainer Chad Brown has skipped the Derby several times to give horses two more weeks and then won the Preakness. The fact that he is not taking that path with Emerging Market is a huge endorsement in my eyes. Brown seems to be immune from Derby fever. Emerging Market had a physical problem and then was sick with pneumonia as a 2-year-old or else he would have had a more complete resume. My Kentucky Derby top pick is Emerging Market.