HorseCenter: Preakness contenders & Peter Pan picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman set their sights on Pimlico and the second leg of the Triple Crown. Sovereignty reigned supreme on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, but the 1 3/16-miles of the Preakness Stakes is likely to be a very different race than we saw last Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. 

Who is most likely to win in Baltimore? With a little over a week to go before the middle jewel, Matt and Brian take a look at the top contenders for the Preakness and offer analysis for each.

Your longtime HorseCenter hosts will also take a look at this Saturday’s Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct. The historic two-turn race is part of a strong card at the Big A and features a field of 10 sophomore males headlined by Captain Cook and Hill Road.

Brian:  The team of Godolphin and Bill Mott have decided not to run their Kentucky Derby hero Sovereignty back in the Preakness. While disappointing not to have the potential for a Triple Crown this year, it is further proof that connections are becoming less and less interested in running back in two weeks after all the demands of the Kentucky Derby.

Matt: Brian, from 2000 to 2018 every Kentucky Derby winner came back to run in the Preakness. That includes Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah. However, that was not true in 2019 when neither Maximum Security nor Country House ran in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Rich Strike, the 81-1 winner of the 2022 Derby, passed on the Preakness and Sovereignty made three. It has to be noted that Country House and Sovereignty were trained by Bill Mott.

Brian: We are still awaiting the Preakness decision on the Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism, who is reported to have come out of the race in great shape. He was my pick at Churchill Downs and if he is in the starting gate at Pimlico, I will like his chances. He has run nothing but good races, including his defeat in the Derby, and he has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance, which is usually mandatory in the Preakness.

Matt: If Journalism runs in the Preakness, he will join American Promise as the only two Kentucky Derby horses to run in this year’s race. Since 2000, only seven Preakness winners did not run in the Derby, although five of them were since 2017. Interestingly though, the filly Swiss Skydiver ran in the Kentucky Oaks and Seize the Gray in the Pat Day Mile (G1), both on Derby weekend.

The last eight Preakness winners won the race after running on the lead or within a few lengths of the pace-setter. In total only five winners since 2000 could be classified as closers.

Brian: I am not predicting the grueling pace that I did in the Kentucky Derby, but the Preakness should still have an honest early pace. Leading the speed is the Bob Baffert-trainee Rodriguez. He had to miss the Kentucky Derby with a minor issue but should be ready to roll at Pimlico. Baffert has won this race eight times and has a real shot with this one to add to his record. He has faced good competition from the start of his career and the son of Authentic showed what he could do when free-wheeling on the front in the Wood Memorial (G2). He is the likely favorite if Journalism is not entered.

Matt: The Preakness is the ideal Triple Crown race for Rodriguez. He fits the profile of previous Preakness winners perfectly as we saw in his Wood Memorial victory and actually in all five of his races.

Brian: Another Preakness contender with good early speed is the lightly raced Clever Again. Trained by Steve Asmussen, this one began his career in April of last year when he just missed in a Keeneland baby race. The American Pharoah colt came back in late February at Oaklawn Park to easily break his maiden, and in his third career start he trounced some decent horses in the Hot Springs Stakes. He could be any kind.

While he had no answer down the lane in the Kentucky Derby, American Promise is eligible to run a much better race against a shorter field and less taxing early pace in the Preakness. Lukas has won the middle jewel seven times, so he knows how to have his horse run well on short rest. His last two Preakness wins came with speed horses and nice odds. The Virginia Derby winner should not be dismissed.

Matt: All of the horses that are listed as possible starters in the Preakness come to the race in excellent form with noteworthy performances in their most recent start.

Although Asmussen still has not won the Kentucky Derby he does have a pair of Preakness victories with his Hall of Fame runners Rachel Alexandra and Curlin. Clever Again’s win at Oaklawn at the end of March was fast and visually impressive as he beat the Baffert-trained Grade 1 winner Gaming by four lengths.

Brian: Two talented horses who would be new to the Triple Crown if they enter the Preakness are the Todd Pletcher-trained River Thames and Gosger from the barn of Brendan Walsh. The latter earned a graded stakes win in his third lifetime start when he pulled away late to beat some decent horses in the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. He is improving with each start, but will need to step up in class in the Preakness.

As for River Thames, I see him as the more dangerous of the two. After winning his first two starts nicely at Gulfstream Park, the son of Maclean’s Music stepped up in class and was narrowly beaten by the eventual Kentucky Derby winner in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He is another with good tactical speed and ran a sneaky good race when a competitive third in the Blue Grass (G1) last time. He is a major contender. 

Matt: Todd Pletcher does not often run horses in the Preakness. He and the ownership group headed by WinStar Farm felt that River Thames would benefit from the extra two weeks rest after four races in three months. So, they skipped the Kentucky Derby.

Brian: Adding a little foreign intrigue to the Preakness is the English-bred Heart of Honor. A son of Honor A.P., he has never finished worse than second in six career starts. Busy over the winter and into the spring, he ran on dirt in Dubai five times, winning the first two easily before finishing second in three straight stakes races. Trained by Jamie Osborne, he has some class and just missed getting up in the rich UAE Derby (G2). A fast pace in the Preakness would help his chances.

And last but not least, we need to mention Pay Billy. Local horses have popped up to run big races in the Preakness at a price over the years. A son of the champion Improbable, the Maryland-based runner is a nose away from winning five straight. He has good tactical speed and finished well to win the Federico Tesio and Private Terms in his last two starts. Both came at Laurel Park, but clearly he is in the best form of his career.

Brian: Contested on Saturday at a distance of 1 1/8-miles, the Peter Pan acts as New York’s prep for the Belmont Stakes. Two years ago, we saw Arcangelo win this race before making history in the Belmont for trainer Jena Antonucci. I don’t know if there are any winners of the final leg of the Triple Crown in this field, but the Peter Pan rarely fails to deliver at least one interesting contender.

Captain Cook had no answer for Rodriguez at the top of the stretch of the Wood Memorial (G2) in his last start, but the Rick Dutrow Jr.-trained son of Practical Joke stayed on reasonably well to be fourth. He should find the quality of pace competition in the Peter Pan much more to his liking. A strong winner of the Withers at the same trip and track in the start before that, he should be a major factor here.

Matt: Brian, back in 2014 Tonalist also completed the Peter Pan-Belmont double. Captain Cook found one of the best recent fields in the Wood Memorial that included Rodriguez and Grande, both of whom drew into the Kentucky Derby but had to scratch because of minor problems. No doubt that Captain Cook will find significant class relief as the only stakes winner in the Peter Pan field.

Brian: Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher perennially lead the way among New York-based trainers and they will both be well represented in this year’s Peter Pan. Brown has Hill Road and Lordship. The former had to miss the Wood Memorial with a fever but showed his class before that with a rallying third in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Tampa Bay Derby (G3). While the latter is a son of Gun Runner and was a good looking winner in his career debut seven weeks ago at Tampa Bay Downs.

Pletcher will counter with Vassimo and Uncaged. The former won his first two career starts in Florida but was unable to make a serious dent in either the Risen Star (G2) or Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. Uncaged is a son of Curlin and has won two of three, including a local allowance last out. He will be making his stakes debut on Saturday. 

Matt: Hill Road began his career racing at the top tracks in Ireland, where he was a debut winner and then tried a Group 1 before coming to America for the world championships. He changed to the Chad Brown barn and stayed here to prepare for a 3-year-old campaign. On the other hand, Lordship will try and make the jump from his maiden win against a six-horse field to a prep race for the Triple Crown. Brown has won the Peter Pan twice in 2017 with Timeline and in 2020 with Country Grammer.

Vassimo will try and get back to his winning ways as he gets some needed class relief. Irad Ortiz will stay on board for his fifth start. Uncaged needed time to mature following his August maiden breaker at Saratoga and won an allowance at Aqueduct after a rough start. The Hall of Fame trainer has won the Peter Pan five times, including last year with Antiquarian.

Brian: Unlike what we saw last weekend in the Kentucky Derby, the Peter Pan has little early pace on paper. I believe that will hurt the chances of the Chad Brown pair, who like to do their best running late. Captain Cook has good experience over the track and should control the early pace. I do like the upside of Uncaged and he might get first run at the leader, but I can’t ignore the pace advantage of the Withers winner. Captain Cook is my top pick in the Peter Pan.

Matt: Hill Road and Captain Cook have the class advantage in this Peter Pan field and both have the look of 3-year-olds that can win graded stakes during the summer. They both have shown that they can handle the nine-furlong distance. The pace projector shows Captain Cook as the speed and aggressive rider Manny Franco will probably send the St. Elias Stable runner to the lead and that will make him hard to catch. Captain Cook is also my pick to win at Aqueduct on Saturday.