HorseCenter: 2025 Preakness, Black-Eyed Susan top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman tackle the $2 million Preakness Stakes with analysis, top picks and suggested wagers. The second leg of the Triple Crown drew a field of nine sophomore colts to Pimlico. In the absence of the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, the 1 3/16-mile classic is headlined by Journalism, who was favored in the run for the roses and ran a solid second.

Chief among the contenders facing the Michael McCarthy-trained favorite on Saturday are the Grade 1 winner Sandman, as well as the promising trio of lightly raced and talented runners River Thames, Clever Again and Goal Oriented. Each of the four reside in the barn of a Hall of Fame trainer.

Matt and Brian also offer analysis and top picks for the female counterpart to the middle jewel, Friday’s Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. The prestigious race for 3-year-old fillies drew a field of nine and is led by the Steve Asmussen-trained stakes winner Runnin N Gunnin.

Brian: Without the Kentucky Derby hero Sovereignty in the field, Journalism looks like a very solid favorite in the Preakness. The son of Curlin couldn’t match the momentum of the winner late but ran another strong race in the 19-horse field. With a decent amount of speed signed on for Saturday, he should be able to relax early and come with his patented stretch run. A decisive winner of three graded stakes in California, it’s hard to look past him as strictly the one to beat here.

Matt: No doubt, Brian, that Journalism is the one to beat in the Preakness. He ran a strong race in the Derby, getting to the lead in the stretch, but he could not hold off the rally of Sovereignty. Journalism was the 3-1 favorite at Churchill Downs and in the Preakness nine-horse field is 8-5 on the morning line.

In the last 15 years, 14 of the Preakness winners were close to the early pace. Exaggerator in 2016 on a sloppy and sealed track was the only closer to win during that time span.

Brian: Sandman is the other Grade 1 winner in the field, having rallied to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) two starts back. I expect him to be the second choice to Journalism for the second straight race, and once again I wonder if the late runner offers much value. I did not like him on a sloppy track in a huge field in the Derby, but this field could be a little more manageable for him. Still, the Preakness is not an easy race to come from way back. I always thought the Belmont would be his best shot. and I still do.

Matt: Sandman was a big underlay in the Derby, going off as the 5-1 second choice. Apparently a social media influencer lived up to his title and had a noticeable influence on Sandman’s odds. I expect the grey son of Tapit to be overbet once again.

Brian: After the two Grade 1 winners, it will be interesting to see how the odds play out. The morning-line oddsmaker at Pimlico said the Todd Pletcher-trained River Thames and the Steve Asmussen-trained Clever Again will be the third and fourth choices, respectively, but I am not so sure. Both are talented and playable here, but I am not excited about their listed odds of 9-2 and 5-1. If I am right, they both could drift a bit higher on Saturday.

Of the two, River Thames clearly has more experience, having tussled with Sovereignty, Burnham Square and Owen Almighty in his last two starts. All of those ran well in the Derby. Clever Again, meanwhile, has done nothing wrong and has plenty of speed, but I will lean to the battle-tested New York-bred as the more dangerous runner in the Preakness.

Matt: After River Thames finished a close third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), trainer Todd Pletcher and the ownership group led by WinStar Farm decided that they would skip the Derby and give the horse an extra two weeks of rest. Clever Again was a speedy front-end winner of a stakes race at Oaklawn, and breaking from the outside should allow the son of American Pharoah to get the front, which is where you want to be in the Preakness.

I agree that River Thames and Clever Again will be higher than their assigned morning-line odds. Along with Sandman, expect the Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas runners to attract plenty of betting dollars as those two trainers combined for 15 Preakness victories.

Brian: It’s hard to discuss the Preakness without talking about Baffert and Lukas. The pair have won the last two runnings of the second leg of the Triple Crown. This year they will saddle Goal Oriented and American Promise, respectively.

I do not expect either trainer to add to their impressive totals this year, but on the other hand neither horse would shock me. Goal Oriented obviously has talent, but with only two starts, this will be a tough place to make his stakes debut. American Promise has plenty of experience and is better than he showed in the Derby but he has just not shown enough against good competition to pick him out here.

Brian: Finally, the three longest shots in the Preakness field all have things to like. From the barn of Brendan Walsh, Gosger interests me a bit at 20-1 on the morning line. The Nyquist colt is improving with each start, and he earned a graded-stakes win at Keeneland in only his third race. He has not faced this type of competition yet.

As for Pay Billy and Heart of Honor, the Maryland-based runner and the European shipper both have run plenty of good races. If the gaggle of lightly raced runners in the field don’t prove to be up to the task in the Preakness stretch, one of these two long shots could certainly sneak into the exotics and spice up the payouts.

Matt: I expect Goal Oriented to get sent to the lead from the rail, which is what Baffert’s horses do in the Preakness. National Treasure, Justify and American Pharoah all won on the front end. With only two starts, Goal Oriented does not have the kind of resume that those three previous winners had heading into the race. I did not like American Promise in the Derby, and he did very little running on the first Saturday in May after he could not get to the lead.

Gosger has to be considered a live long shot with his 20-1 morning line odds after his impressive victory in the Lexington (G3). He might not be a contender for the win, but he could blow up the vertical exotic payouts.

Brian: Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan looks like a wide-open race to me. The favorites on the morning line are Runnin N Gunnin, who earned her only stakes win in New Mexico before being a well-beaten third at Oaklawn in the Fantasy (G1), and Margie’s Intention, who has raced against only fellow Louisiana-breds in five career starts. A race with vulnerable favorites is always one I enjoy to wager.

Matt: Indeed, those two fillies do not stand out in this Black-Eyed Susan field. Runnin N Gunnin is the 5-2 morning line favorite even though she was beaten by almost 10 lengths in the Fantasy. Margie’s Intention began her career in December and then packed four more starts in three months of racing at Fair Grounds. Now she comes back from her last race in March to try a graded-stakes race.

Brian: The third choice on the morning line is Amarth, and she is dangerous. I think she ran a sneaky good race when second in the Busher at Aqueduct two starts back. In the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland, she finished with interest to be fifth after dropping to last. She is another filly with a shot in here, but also far from unbeatable.

Matt: A fast pace is expected in the Black-Eyed Susan, which should benefit the late running style of Amarth. That was a strangely run race for her in the Ashland where she appeared to be in a good position but then dropped far back. Once she was able to get running, she made up a lot of ground. It is a good sign that Luis Saez stays on board.

Brian: Several others in the field could step up on Friday, but the filly I like best is Reply. Trained by Brittany Russell, who wins a ton of races in Maryland, this lightly raced filly looks to have a big upside. A $450,000 yearling purchase for Mike Repole, she has impressed me in her first two starts after beginning her career in March. If this field were stronger, I would be worried about her inexperience, but in a race with no world beaters, she looks primed to do well.

Matt: Reply is a well-bred daughter of Curlin owned by Repole Stable who is not trained by Todd Pletcher. Instead she is in the capable hands of Brittany Russell. Her two starts were in a maiden at Colonial Downs and then in the Laurel Park prep race for the Black-Eyed Susan, where she rallied to finish second beaten by less than a length. Irad Ortiz Jr. replaces Russell’s husband Sheldon, most likely at the request of Repole.

Brian: It’s been 40 years since Chief’s Crown became the only horse in history to lose each leg of the Triple Crown as the betting favorite in all three. I am not ready to wish that on Journalism, but if he drops into the 4-5 range on Saturday, I will have to look elsewhere after his tough race two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Journalism is absolutely the most likely winner of the Preakness Stakes, but based on value, I am going with River Thames as my top pick.

Matt: I just cannot take the anticipated short odds on Journalism even though a repeat of his Derby effort probably would get him a victory. His trainer Michael McCarthy won the 2021 Preakness with Rombauer. I will try to beat the favorite with Clever Again, whose running style is ideal for success at Pimlico. He can get to the lead with a clean trip from the outside and use his speed.

Brian: With a solid pace expected in the Black-Eyed Susan, I am going to look for a filly who can pass horses. Reply has run only twice, but I like what I see. She rallied on a speed-favoring track at Colonial Downs to easily beat a next-out winner and then finished strongly without much pace in the Weber City Miss. If the daughter of Curlin can take a step forward in her third lifetime race, I think she wins this. At 8-1 on the morning line, she offers solid value. Reply is my top pick in the Black-Eyed Susan.

Matt: Reply is an excellent choice in the Black-Eyed Susan, Brian. She has the right running style, but she has run only twice. I also will go with a horse who will be passing tired horses down the stretch. Amarth is my top pick in the big race for 3-year-old fillies.