HorseCenter: Top Ky. Derby long shots + Ky. Oaks contenders
With just over a week to go until the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman continue their coverage of America’s most prestigious race on HorseCenter. Before discussing their favorite live long shots in the run for the roses, the veteran turf writers take a look at the top contenders for the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks.
Run next Friday, the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks is the female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby and was won last year by the eventual horse of the year Thorpedo Anna. Matt and Brian each reveal their personal top five for the historic race and offer analysis for all of their top contenders.
Good Cheer (Medaglia d’Oro) 8-5; Brian, no. 1; Matt, no. 1
Brian: The filly to beat on Friday has been a model of consistency in her first six career starts. The Brad Cox charge has yet to be truly tested while winning them all, including four straight stakes races at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. This will be her toughest and longest test yet, but nothing about her races to date point to a concern about either. Her only negative is low odds against a big, talented field.
Matt: The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro won three times on the Oaks trail, which accounted for her most recent victories in her undefeated career. She won the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill and the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) at the New Orleans track. Detractors can say that she has yet to run in a Grade 1 race. Cox won the Oaks in 2020 with Shedaresthedevil and with Monomoy Girl in 2018.
Quietside (Malibu Moon); 8-1; Brian, no. 2; Matt, no. 2
Brian: For sake of transparency, this is a filly that I have liked and rooted for since her unveiling at Saratoga, so it’s possible I will overrate her. Having said that, I do believe that she has never been better and has beaten very nice fillies in her last two. With a good trip, I see her having the best chance to upset the favorite.
Matt: Quietside won twice this year on the Oaks trail both times at Oaklawn in the Honeybee (G3) and the Fantasy (G1), and she ended up on top of the points list. Her victory in the Honeybee was against a strong of field of 13 where she pressed the pace, took the lead at the stretch call and extended to win by a length. She came back to win the Fantasy with a similar trip. I agree with Brian that she is in the best form of her career. Her jockey Jose Ortiz is riding as well as at any point in his career.
La Cara (Street Sense); 12-1; Brian, no rating; Matt, no. 3
Matt: La Cara has the distinction of having won three times on the road to the Oaks, including the first race in the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill and the last, which was the Ashland (G1). Overall, she qualified second in total points. She showed versatility with an off-the-pace victory in September and then on the front end more recently. She recorded a dazzling workout at Churchill the other day.
Brian: A front-running winner of two of her three starts this year, this filly from the Mark Casse barn became a Grade 1 winner last out when she made all the running in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. I suspect it will be much tougher to control the Oaks pace, however, leaving me to look to others among my top picks.
Take Charge Milady (Take Charge Indy); 15-1; Brian, no. 3, Matt, no rating
Brian: Trainer Kenny McPeek will be after consecutive wins in the Kentucky Oaks when he sends out this late runner on Friday. She certainly does not afford McPeek the firepower he brought last year, but I do believe she is in with a shot. I like her sustained rally in the Ashland and with a more favorable pace set-up here, I think she can turn the tables on La Cara.
Matt: Take Charge Milady won the Martha Washington on the Oaks trail at Oaklawn. She bounced back in the Ashland after a rough start and subsequent traffic problems in the Honeybee had her far back, but she did very little running that day. She is a deep closer who will need the right trip to set up a late run that could put her in contention.
Tenma (Nyquist); 8-1; Brian, no. 4; Matt, no rating
Brian: Trained by Bob Baffert, this filly has only one blemish on a record that includes four graded stakes victories. The level of competition and speed figures are not overly impressive in her wins, but she merits serious respect from a barn that has won this race three times before. A fast pace might not help her chances, but she has shown the ability to pass horses before.
Matt: Horses from California in the Oaks and the Derby ran against small fields in their qualifying races and now must face what will probably be the largest fields of their careers. Tenma won three times on the Oaks trail in the Starlet (G2) at Los Alamitos against six others, the Las Virgenes (G3) in a field of three, and the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) had a group of only five.
Fondly (Upstart); 20-1, Brian, no rating; Matt, no. 4
Matt: Fondly won both of her career starts and qualified for the Kentucky Oaks with a victory in the Virginia Oaks. Admittedly, running in the Kentucky Oaks is a big ask, but knowing that Graham Motion is willing to give her a shot has to make you think again about her chances to get into the exotics at big odds. At Colonial Downs she beat Early On, who is seventh on the points list.
Brian: I am not as high on this daughter of Upstart as you are, Matt. Although I am somewhat impressed that she won the Virginia Oaks in her second career start, that race looks slow compared to the other times turned in that afternoon. She has talent, but I think this race is a lot to ask of a filly who has made only two career starts.
Simply Joking (Practical Joke); 12-1; Brian, no rating; Matt, no. 5
Matt: This lightly raced Pennsylvania-bred will need to take a step forward after her second-place finish in the Fantasy got her into the run for the lilies. Her trainer Whit Beckman has been showing up in the biggest of races since moving up from his apprenticeship in the Chad Brown barn. As with Fondly, I am willing to take a chance and the longer odds that she could take a step forward to be a contender for a top-three finish.
Brian: Of these two consecutive lightly raced fillies, this is the one which I believe to be more dangerous. She certainly did not make things easy for Quietside in the Fantasy. The question is whether she can move forward off that effort. This speedy filly has serious talent, but I think a little lost time between her second and third starts has hurt her chances to make a big splash in the Kentucky Oaks.
Ballerina d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro); 15-1; Brian, no. 5; Matt, no rating
Brian: Her win in the recent Gazelle Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct might not have been pretty, but it is further evidence that she can finish strongly at the nine-furlong distance. If the early pace is contentious, I see her as one of the fillies who could be finishing best of all. Maybe that only gets her underneath in the exotics, but I trust that Chad Brown will have her primed in her third start of the year.
Matt: It was a real struggle for jockey Dylan Davis to get the best out of Ballerina d’Oro in the Gazelle as she was not changing leads down the stretch. Once she did so, she was able to win the race by a nose against a field that lacked star power. In the Oaks, she will need to be on the top of her game to be able to compete in the toughest of Grade 1 races for 3-year-old fillies.
Brian: Matt, let’s transition to the boys and talk about some Kentucky Derby long shots. The top one for me has to be Luxor Café. No Japanese horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but they came very close last year, and I believe they are sending another strong representative in this beautifully bred son of American Pharoah.
Luxor Café was flattered when horses he defeated in Japan ran first and a close third in the UAE Derby (G2). He also has two strong wins at nine furlongs and an impressive turn of foot. With a top trainer and a top jockey, he has his races well spaced and he has been trained to run a distance from the beginning. As good as Japan racing has become, it is only a matter of time before they win the Derby. I think 2025 might be their year.
Matt: The Derby is expected to be fast, so my long shots are three closers who will be prominent in some of my vertical wagers on the first Saturday in May.
I'm starting with the Steve Asmussen-runner Tiztastic, who won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his fifth start on the Derby Trail. He took control of the longest of the Derby preps early in the stretch and drew off to win by more than two lengths with a speed figure that puts him in the mix.
Brian: I’m not certain that Burnham Square is fast enough, but I really like the way he closed at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, where it can be difficult to make up serious ground. A strong early pace at Churchill Downs should be to his liking and the son of Liam’s Map should not have a problem with the distance. Trainer Ian Wilkes is not one of the household names in the game, but he knows how to get his horse ready on the big days. He has done it on his own and as an assistant for Carl Nafzger.
Matt: Grande was second in his only start on the Derby trail when he rallied from seventh in the Wood Memorial (G2) and was well clear of the rest of the field. He had to chase Rodriguez, who got loose on the lead. The son of Curlin is the only horse in this year’s run for the roses from the two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher, and the odds will be unusually high for the hall of famer. John Velazquez will get back on board.
Brian: Although it’s true that Final Gambit has never run on dirt, I believe Not This Time to be one of the most versatile sires out there. The winner of the Jeff Ruby has looked good working over the main track since arriving at Churchill Downs for trainer Brad Cox. Most of all, though, I love the way the handsome gray finishes off his races. He wants to run all day and if the pace is taxing next Saturday, this long shot should be picking them up and laying them down under the famed twin spires. I expect him to be worth the odds, whether it be for the win or to fill out the exotics.
Matt: I’m going back to Asmussen again with my longest of the long shots Publisher. The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is a maiden with the best performance of his career when he was second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). The addition of blinkers allowed him to rally from last as he earned the best speed figure of his career. Jockey Flavien Prat won the Eclipse Award last year with his record-setting total of graded-stakes victories, and he has continued winning on the biggest stages around the country again in 2025.
Brian: Finally, let’s make it a lucky seven live long shots for the Kentucky Derby. Coal Battle would certainly be a popular winner on the first Saturday in May, but I do not expect him to be bet that way after he faded down the stretch in the Arkansas Derby. I think he went a little too fast in the first furlong that day and then moved too soon into a hot pace. I am very ready to give the battle-tested colt another shot following his only loss in six tries on the dirt. Don’t be surprised if he makes a move to take the lead at the head of the Churchill Downs lane.