HorseCenter: Belmont Stakes day top picks, suggested wagers
This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman aim to close out their 2025 Triple Crown coverage with a bang as they dive into the $2 million Belmont Stakes. The final leg of the Triple Crown features the rematch of Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes winner Journalism.
The enticing matchup headlines the Belmont, which will once again be run going 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga because of Belmont Park renovations, but the top two are far from the only ones with a chance in the 157th edition of the classic. Kentucky Derby third Baeza and Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez top six others taking a shot at the favorites.
As usual, the Belmont Stakes Festival is loaded with other big names, and we have chosen an intriguing turf affair as our secondary race of the week. Spirit of St Louis is a lukewarm morning-line favorite over Far Bridge in a strong edition of the Manhattan (G1) going 1 3/16 miles over the Saratoga turf course.
Brian: Happily, the top three from the Kentucky Derby are all back, making this edition of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga a very interesting running indeed. I’ve been of the opinion that Journalism is the leader of this crop since watching the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) last December and nothing he has done since, including a mind-blowing victory in the Preakness, has changed my mind. Having said that, the four-time graded stakes winner will need to prove himself all over again on Saturday, because Sovereignty holds a 1-0 advantage in the head-to-head matchups.
Matt: Taking a look at Journalism with an eye on past Belmont Stakes winners since 2000, there are some interesting statistics. Four Belmont victories came from horses who won the Preakness, the two Triple Crown winners plus Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005. Also, the majority of horses who ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown digressed from their Preakness performance.
Brian: Sovereignty, meanwhile, has done little wrong since finishing strongly in his career debut last summer at Saratoga. An impressive-looking son of Into Mischief, he definitely got the optimal pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby and was good enough to take full advantage. The pace in the Belmont should be much more ordinary, which likely makes his task a little tougher. Having skipped the Preakness was an unpopular decision but might play out to be an advantage over his top rival, who is the only horse running in all three legs.
Matt: Both Sovereignty and Journalism have not run a bad race in their careers. Together they have won seven graded stakes from 13 starts, including the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and have $6.52 million in earnings. These are the two best 3-year-olds in the country, and a victory in the Belmont will put that horse on top of the division.
Brian: The showdown between the Kentucky Derby winner and the Preakness winner is certainly the headline, but there are strong contenders in here ready and willing to upset the apple cart. Leading that brigade is Baeza. The impeccably bred son of McKinzie also skipped the Preakness in favor of the final leg of the Triple Crown. After announcing himself a serious talent with a strong second behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he ran a big third in the Kentucky Derby. He had traffic problems and looked a little green but was finishing with a flourish and looked great on the gallop out. Attempting to give broodmare Puca her third straight foal to win a Triple Crown race, I consider Baeza a major threat to the top two.
Matt: I look at Baeza as a wild card in the Belmont. As you said, his second in the Santa Anita Derby and his third in the run for the roses point out his talent. At the same time, he has only one victory in his five-race career and has losses to Sovereignty, Journalism and Rodriguez in his past performances. I wonder what the chances are that he will be able to jump forward and defeat both Sovereignty and Journalism.
Brian: Before we found out that Crudo would be entered, it looked like the talented Rodriguez was going to be dangerous lone speed in the Belmont. With the addition of the lightly raced Pletcher trainee to the field, the chances of the Wood Memorial winner getting an easy and uncontested early lead are now far less likely. Of the two speed types, I see the battle-tested Rodriguez as the more dangerous on Saturday. Rodriguez and Crudo have talent, to be sure, but the presence of both would seem to hurt the chances of either pulling off an upset at 10 furlongs.
Matt: The addition of Crudo to the Belmont field is significant. As you can see, the pace projector puts him on the lead with Rodriguez in second. I think that those two will knock heads early on. Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial on the front end, and I expect that the race instructions from Bob Baffert to Mike Smith will be to go to the lead. The pressure from Crudo will make it much harder for Rodriguez than was expected, especially since he has not run in two months.
Brian: Of the rest, I find it hard to recommend Uncaged in any shape or form, and I think there are too many dynamic late runners in here to expect the England-based Heart of Honor to do any better than he did at Pimlico. I do, however, give Hill Road a chance on Saturday. His three races in America all point him out as a legitimate colt. After getting very little early pace to run at in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Tampa Bay Derby (G3), he still rallied for third in both. With a little stronger pace last time out, the son of Quality Road finished off the Peter Pan (G3) in style. He is my top long shot in the Belmont.
Matt: I like Hill Road as much as Baeza as the main threats to pull an upset and produce a Belmont finish that does not have Sovereignty or Journalism as the winner.
Brian: The two favorites in the Manhattan, Spirit of St Louis and Far Bridge, both not only have excellent overall records on the grass, but they come into this matchup in the best form of their careers. They each won important stakes races impressively last month and have previously won over the Saratoga turf course. The 1 3/16-mile distance of the race brings them together for the first time as Far Bridge shortens up and Spirit of St Louis stretches out. It’s a very intriguing meeting between the two horses who have accomplished the most this year in American grass racing.
Matt: With the recent sale and then the departure of Carl Spackler to Europe, Spirit of St Louis and Far Bridge are the best horses in what is not one of the strongest male turf divisions. Spirit of St Louis, who has three wins from his last four starts, is the 5-2 favorite. The Chad Brown runner won the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill on Derby weekend and the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1). Far Bridge is 3-1 with four wins from his five most recent starts, including a pair of New York Grade 1s last summer in the Sword Dancer and the Turf Classic.
Brian: Several others in the nine-horse Manhattan field join the top two as win possibilities Saturday. Considering the value of everyone here other than Spirit of St Louis and Far Bridge, I do see this as a very good betting race. Sure, either of the two favorites could win, but I believe they both are beatable in this spot.
One long shot who will be on my tickets is Carson’s Run. The 4-year-old Cupid chestnut has run well at Saratoga in each of the last two seasons, including a Grade 1 victory at the distance. He has made only one start this year but did not have the race setup and was not catching his speedy and talented stablemate Deterministic on that day. Back at the Spa, I expect him to move forward and run a very good race under Dylan Davis.
Matt: Deterministic and Carson’s Run will meet for the fourth time in their careers. Carson’s Run was the winner in the Saratoga Derby (G1) and the Jockey Club Derby (G3) last year, and Deterministic won the Fort Marcy (G2) last month. Interestingly, they have nearly identical records for their careers. Carson’s Run is 11: 5-3-0 with $1.6 million in earnings and Deterministic is 11: 5-3-1, earning just over $1 million.
Brian: Two other horses with very attractive morning-line odds in the Manhattan are Corruption and Tucson. The former gave Far Bridge a tough time two starts back going longer and had a sharp prep win in his last. Having already run five good races this season, I can’t ignore Corruption here. Tucson, meanwhile, has only one lifetime turf start for trainer Todd Pletcher, but it was a good one. With two wins on synthetic surfaces before that, the son of Constitution might be ready to step up and compete with the big boys.
Matt: Let me add Highway Robber to the list of interesting runners in the Manhattan. He is yet another millionaire in the field who has graded stakes victories to his credit. He went to Dubai in March but bounced back from that trip to rally boldly for third in the Turf Classic won by Spirit of St Louis. The place horse that day, Mercante, came back last weekend to win the Arlington (G3) as my HorseCenter top pick.
Brian: It’s time to get to top picks, Matt. We have two excellent races here and many others over the Festival, but the Belmont is the big one and deserving of top billing. With relatively low odds on the top two, I have to make a choice and I will not hesitate in sticking with Journalism. I believe he is the best horse in the race and is a more versatile runner than the Derby winner. Baeza and Hill Road are very interesting alternatives, but if the morning-line favorite runs his race, I believe he wins on Saturday. Journalism is my top pick in the Belmont Stakes.
Matt: It is very hard to separate Sovereignty and Journalism in the Belmont, and I believe one of them will win the race. Journalism ran big in the Derby and the Preakness, and there is a chance that after those two performances he could digress a bit on Saturday. That gives the edge to the fresh horse from the barn of Bill Mott. Sovereignty is my Belmont top pick.
Brian: I definitely will look for value in this wide-open edition of the Manhattan. Spirit of St Louis and Far Bridge are very likable horses, but I don’t believe either offers value in this one. Carson’s Run seems to really like Saratoga and he will have odds after running second in his return race. I also think the distance and the pace scenario are positives for the Miguel Clement trainee. It would be nice to see the young trainer win a big one after the recent passing of his legendary father Christophe. He has three nice horses in this race, and I really like the one who is 12-1 on the morning line. Carson’s Run is my top pick.
Matt: A big effort is going to be needed to beat Spirit of St Louis and Far Bridge. Deterministic caught my eye last year when he won the Gotham (G3) last. He is now racing on the grass, where he belongs, and is a proven turf runner. Like you, Brian, I am making a runner from the Clement barn my choice, but for me Deterministic is the top pick.