Christophe Clément Turf Stakes: Why they win, why they lose
Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Named in honor of the Hall of Fame trainer who died far too young, the Grade 1, $750,000 Christophe Clément Turf Stakes is one of the most prestigious 12-furlong turf races in the U.S. Saturday’s renewal has attracted an eclectic offering of Europeans taking on American-based runners. The 3-year-old Ancient Egypt, coming off two strong second-place finishes overseas, is the most likely favorite in the wide-open affair.
Notable winners of the Christophe Clément Turf, formerly known as the Sword Dancer, include Tiller, John Henry, Lemhi Gold, Majesty’s Prince, Theatrical, El Senor, Fraise, John’s Call, With Anticipation, Better Talk Now, Main Sequence, Flintshire, Channel Maker and Gufo.
1. Ancient Egypt (5-1) - Charlie Johnston/David Egan
Why he wins
Brian: The Frankel colt has appeared to take things to another level in his two most recent starts, just missing against strong competition. The 1 1/2-mile half trip seems to be right up his alley, and he gets a bit of a class break here.
Matt: European horses are winning turf stakes at Saratoga this summer. Ancient Egypt lost by head and a neck in important Group races at Longchamp in France and at Royal Ascot in England.
Why he loses
Brian: He is a 3-year-old taking on older as he makes his first start in the U.S. Despite running very well in his last two tries, he did not win either.
Matt: Ancient Egypt is the only horse in the field without a graded- or group-stakes victory in his record, and his running lines show that he often has faded in the stretch after contending for the lead.
2. Tawny Port (8-1) - Miguel Clément/Kendrick Carmouche
Why he wins
Brian: I can’t say I like his chances on Saturday, but at his best, he is capable of making some noise. He is 2-for-3 over the Saratoga turf.
Matt: The racing gods have to be looking after trainer Miguel Clément in this race, which honors his Hall of Fame father. Distance will not be a concern as he won going two miles in the Belmont Gold Cup (G2) at Saratoga in June.
Why he loses
Brian: Dropping down from a victory at two miles, he likely will fall behind early and lacks the turn of foot to outsprint this field to the wire.
Matt: The 7-year-old has not been winning races with the frequency that he did earlier in his career and had only one victory since Saratoga in 2023.
3. Ole Crazy Bone (4-1) - Mike Maker/TBA
Why he wins
Brian: Since moving to the barn of Mike Maker last summer, the gelding has proven himself to be a serious runner, especially going long. His form cycle and tactical speed should give him every chance at the top of the lane.
Matt: Claimed for $100,000 last summer at Churchill Downs, Ole Crazy Bone had a pair of seconds and two wins since, including the Bowling Green (G2) against a couple of horses in the Clément.
Why he loses
Brian: This will be the strongest overall field he has ever faced, and it will be a test to see whether he can sprint home with the best in here.
Matt: There is jockey uncertainty for him in the Clément as Flavien Prat sticks with Chad Brown and Program Trading and Irad Ortiz Jr. will be unable to ride because of injury.
4. Program Trading (7-2) - Chad Brown/Flavien Prat
Why he wins
Brian: A Grade 1 winner two seasons ago at nine furlongs, he looks to be rounding into solid form again. He stretched out nicely with a good win at Monmouth Park last time.
Matt: Program Trading is the only Grade or Group 1 winner in the Clément field.
Why he loses
Brian: His two recent wins have come against lesser in New Jersey. He steps back into the big leagues on Saturday and will need to be even better to beat this Grade 1 bunch.
Matt: The extra distance to 1 1/2 miles could make the task of beating this quality group a bit too much.
5. Fort George (9-2) Ed Walker/Kieran Shoemark
Why he wins
Brian: His overseas form and his first try in the U.S. point to a horse getting very good at the age of 4. He faced top horses in Dubai and held his own. In his second race off a break, I expect him to run another strong race here.
Matt: Fort George came to America before the blanket finish in the Bowling Green and stayed to continue training at Saratoga. Also, he had no gate problems and broke alertly.
Why he loses
Brian: He could not quite get by Ole Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green, and now he faces that one again in addition to strong new shooters.
Matt: Fort George is a Grade 3 winner of the Dubai Millenium at Meydan in January, but he was second in both of his tries in Grade or Group 2 stakes and was ninth in his only try in a Group 1.
6. Minaret Station (3-1) - Will Walden/Jose Ortiz
Why he wins
Brian: His first try stretching out was quite good, closing strongly into a slow pace in the Bowling Green. Any improvement off that effort makes him a serious threat in the Christophe Clément Turf.
Matt: At this writing Jose Ortiz is the leading jockey at Saratoga, and he got to know Minaret Station in that third-place finish in the Bowling Green.
Why he loses
Brian: This field is deeper than what he faced last month. He still needs to prove that he can complete the deal against good older horses after three narrow defeats.
Matt: It has been more than a year since this 4-year-old found the winner’s circle. Trainer Will Walden is not winning at his usual 27% clip and has only two victories at the Spa this summer.
7. Survie (6-1) George Boughey/Manny Franco
Why she wins
Brian: She comes in sharp after a nice win with a fast finish over the course and at the distance only 13 days ago.
Matt: Racing against the boys is not an unusual thing in Europe. She has beaten them in the past and was third in the Turf Cup (G1) in Saudi Arabia.
Why she loses
Brian: Running by the fillies and mares, which she did in the Glens Falls (G2), is one thing, but trying to out finish this group of solid males could be something different altogether.
Matt: Last time out she was 20-1 in an undercard stakes race at Royal Ascot against the boys and finished sixth.