Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2026: Why they win, why they lose
The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is the top event for 2-year-olds in the U.S. Contested at 1 1/16 miles, it will be hosted by Keeneland for the fourth time next Friday. Pre-entries for the race were announced on Wednesday, with nine young males set to battle for the top prize and the winner likely to be awarded a championship at year's end.
Two-time Grade 1 winner Hughes, trained by Bob Baffert and unbeaten in four career starts, likely will be a solid favorite over American History and Coach Pope, who ran first and second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. Horses listed below are in alphabetic order, with post positions to be drawn on Monday.
First run in 1984, notable winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile include Ted Noffey, Fierceness, Forte, Essential Quality, Good Magic, Classic Empire, Nyquist, Uncle Mo, Street Sense, Favorite Trick, Unbridled’s Song, Timber Country, Arazi and Chief’s Crown.
1. American History (9-2) - Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez
Why he wins
Brian: In both of his starts, he made a nice rally to win in impressive fashion. We could see even better in his third lifetime start, and he already has a strong finishing victory over the track and distance.
Matt: He has done nothing wrong in two starts, and trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Juvenile four times, including last year with Ted Noffey.
Why he loses
Brian: The pace set up for him well last time. He will need a strong early pace again to run down talented horses in here.
Matt: There are two other undefeated horses in the field, and they come from the barn of Bob Baffert.
2. Coach Pope (4-1) - Kenny McPeek/Jose Ortiz
Why he wins
Brian: He got into a bit of a speed duel last time in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and held on pretty well. If he can relax better early this time, he could be talented enough to win here.
Matt: He was second in that star-studded maiden race in August at Saratoga where Gaudreau was the winner and U. S. S. Valor was third. Since then he was an odds-on favorite twice.
Why he loses
Brian: Both American History and Gaudreau already have beaten him, and things only get tougher here.
Matt: His maiden victory by more than 12 lengths in his second start did not include any of the horses who are in this Juvenile field.
3. Damavand (20-1) - Todd Pletcher/to be determined
Why he wins
Brian: He was game with a win in his first time around two turns last out, which came over the Keeneland track. Pletcher clearly knows how to win this race.
Matt: He had a fast, bullet workout at Keeneland just 10 days after his maiden win going the Juvenile distance.
Why he loses
Brian: He has faced only maidens so far, and I don’t know whether he did enough in either of his races to expect him to step up at this level.
Matt: He will face the best 2-year-olds in the country in the Juvenile.
4. Earth Song (30-1) - Jorge Delgado/Ricardo Santana Jr.
Why he wins
Brian: After an impressive debut win, he didn’t have the best of trips in the Champagne. He could improve off that effort.
Matt: He was very well regarded as an odds-on favorite heading into his debut victory.
Why he loses
Brian: He was a long shot in his stakes debut last time, and now he faces an even deeper field.
Matt: His open-lengths maiden win was against a field of three at Monmouth Park.
5. Gaudreau (8-1) - Chad Brown/Flavien Prat
Why he wins
Brian: A determined winner in the key maiden race of the year, he fought gamely when second best behind the extremely talented U.S.S. Valor in his stakes debut. The experience should have him ready for this.
Matt: His maiden victory was against a stakes-quality field, and Flavien Prat is likely to be on board again.
Why he loses
Brian: There is other quality speed he will need to deal with here as he makes his first start around two turns.
Matt: Trainer Chad Brown has 19 Breeders’ Cup victories, but only one of them was in the Juvenile.
6. He Is No Lie (15-1) Doug O’Neill/Joel Rosario
Why he wins
Brian: He has good early speed and experience. He finished well enough in the Iroquois (G3) to believe he rates a shot with a step forward at Keeneland.
Matt: He won his first start at Santa Anita by eight lengths as an odds-on favorite, he already has run at three tracks, and his last three works were at Keeneland.
Why he loses
Brian: He has had three tries in stakes company without a win. I can’t expect a breakout victory against the colts he will face in this one.
Matt: He lost to a pair of horses in his two most recent races who are in this Juvenile field.
7. Hughes (6-5) - Bob Baffert/J J Hernandez
Why he wins
Brian: He has looked the part of a potential champion in each of his four starts. Another performance like the last one could be good enough to complete a perfect 2-year-old season.
Matt: Baffert has 21 Breeders’ Cup wins, and six of them were in the Juvenile. Hughes won his four races by combined margins of more than 24 lengths.
Why he loses
Brian: Leaving Southern California for the first time and facing much better horses could be the recipe for the big favorite to be beaten here.
Matt: The largest field he faced was six horses. There was only one runner from this Juvenile field among them and that one is 20-1.
8. Net Par (SCRATCH) - Antonio Garcia/Victor Espinoza
9. Salahudin (6-1) - Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux
Why he wins
Brian: A strong early pace up front could set the table for him to pass horses in the Keeneland stretch.
Matt: This guy was the favorite in all his starts and is an undefeated graded stakes winner who is part of Baffert’s Kentucky-based stable.
Why he loses
Brian: Despite having won two stakes races already, I’m not impressed with who he has beaten. This field looks much tougher than what he has seen so far.
Matt: With very fast workouts showing, he could be part of the early pace in the Juvenile.