Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Projected field, odds and analysis

There is an old adage that milers make the best stallions, one reason why the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile has served as the target race for the best of the rest in North America — those not quite ready for the Classic’s full mile and a quarter.

Since its first running in 2007, the race has also given us moments, such as Goldencents’ back-to-back victories, Caleb’s Posse’s ascent from the clouds to beat Shackleford, and Liam’s Map’s dominant career finale at Keeneland.

Mor Spirit and Giant Expectations took the “Win and You’re In” challenge races but will have plenty of competition, including from Accelerate, the anticipated favorite.

With the $1 million race set for Friday, Nov. 3, let’s take a look at the field with early odds by Horse Racing Nation:

Accelerate [4-1 Lookin At Lucky — John Sadler — 13: 4-3-5 — $727,480] Last year’s 3rd-place finisher in the Dirt Mile has had a solid 4-year-old season. He wired the San Diego Handicap — the race included Arrogate — in July and ran near the front stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in the Pacific Classic. Can he bring his A game again? Best of the California contingent.

Awesome Slew [12-1 — Awesome Again – Mark Casse — 16: 5-4-3 — $649,820] Winner of Churchill Downs’ Ack Ack in September over The Player after running 2nd in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Forego. Hasn’t recorded a timed workout since Sept. 22. May have already run his best this year.

Cupid [15-1 — Tapit — Bob Baffert —12: 6-1-0 — $1,701,873] This winner of the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita likes the Del Mar surface, winning the Harry Brubaker Stakes in August. His works are solid, recently a five-furlong bullet Oct. 17 in 59.80 seconds. Should hit the board.

Iron Fist [12-1 — Tapit – Steve Asmussen – 22: 8-5-4 — $984,199] Three wins in his last four races — with the exception a 2nd-place place effort — have connections ready to place him in Grade 1 company for the first time. He could press the pace a bit in here. Taking a big step up.

 

Giant Expectations [12-1 — Frost Giant — Peter Eurton — 11: 3-3-1 — $259,200] Two starts back, he won the Pat O’Brien, his first try in stakes company, to automatically qualify for this race. In his next race, the colt wasn’t a factor in a Grade 1 going six furlongs. At least we know he likes the surface, and Goldencents lost the Santa Anita Sprint Championship before winning the Dirt Mile. Would take the best race of his career.

 

Midnight Storm [20-1 — Pioneerof the Nile — Phil D’Amato — 26: 10-5-2 — $1,7783,110]Considered for both the Mile on turf and Dirt Mile, he’s shortening up from 1 1/8 miles in the Awesome Again where he ran 2nd in a so-so field. Seems a step slower now at age 6 but rarely misses the board. Keep in the exotics.

 

Mor Spirit [7-2 — Eskendereya – Bob Baffert —13: 6-5-0 — $1,658,000] Winner of the Met Mile by 6 1/4, but hasn’t raced since. Putting aside a disappointing workout this week in company with stablemate Drefong, he appears the class of the field here despite the layoff. A deserving favorite.

 

Practical Joke [8-1 — Into Mischief – Chad Brown – 10: 5-2-2 — $932,000] Last out won the H. Allen Jerkins Stakes, which in my opinion should qualify as a “Win and You’re In” for the Dirt Mile…maybe one day. Brown feels like the colt is ready to perform, and he has two wins at seven furlongs and two more at a mile — never longer. A good fit at this distance.

 

Sharp Azteca [5-1 — Freud — Jorge Navrro — 14: 7-4-1 — $1,136,740] Distant second to Mor Spirt in the Met Mile, he rebounded with back-to-back wins in graded stakes company. His races this year have been well-spaced, and if Mor Spirit isn’t at his best, this one could turn the tables. Solid third choice should run his race.