Weekend Watch: Kentucky Oaks day previews and plays
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
Photo:
Leah Vasquez
Each weekend, Horse Racing Nation previews the top races to tune into coast to coast and runs down the main contenders. Here, check out some handicapping-oriented thoughts on Friday's Kentucky Oaks card with all times Eastern.
Race 5: 12:35 p.m.
The Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes features 3-year old fillies sprinting 7 furlongs. Mother Mother drops into this spot after having no success against
Bellafina in the Oaks preps. She hasn’t won a race since October but has been otherwise competitive. She also has the class to easily handle this group despite what her tepid morning line odds would suggest. Break Even sports the best speed figures in the field and enters this spot off back-to-back triple digit efforts. She is currently undefeated for trainer Brad Cox and will likely try to wire the field. Bell’s the One was undefeated prior to the Ashland (G1), and I am putting a line through that race as she obviously wanted no part of 1 1/16 miles. I like her on the cutback in distance, and her 15-1 morning line odds are tempting. She should get a nice stalking trip from Post 5. As with
Mother Mother, Del Mar May exits the Oaks trail to land here. She was unsuccessful on the track last year, but after being given some time to mature, she began 2019 with a victory. Overall this is a competitive field, and there’s money to be made here.
Race 6: 1:17 p.m.
The Grade 3
Edgewood Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile turf event for 3-year old fillies, is a good place to play a single in multi-race wagers. Undefeated Newspaperofrecord heads the field as the 3-5 favorite. She has not raced since triumphing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but so far no one has been able to get near her at the finish. She will break from Post 1 and likely go straight to the lead, daring the others to catch her if they can. Stablemate and Herecomesthebride (G3) winner Cambier Parc will break just to her outside and will get a nice stalking trip under Jose Ortiz. If Newspaperofrecord has an off day, Cambier Parc will be right there to capitalize on it. Value-wise, Winter Sunset and Concrete Rose are worth a look. Winter Sunset, out of star turf runner Winter Memories, is graded stakes-placed, while Concrete Rose is a dual graded stakes winner. I really do not see either of them winning, but they are solid choices to fill out the exotics.
Race 7: 2 p.m.
The Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile feature for older males, is another spot where bettors could comfortably use just one or two selections. Multiple Grade 1 winner McKinzie is the 8-5 favorite off a couple of close runner-up efforts at Santa Anita to open his 4-year-old season. Having drawn the rail, jockey Mike Smith could either send him to the lead or stalk the pace. Seeking the Soul is the one most likely to upset the apple cart, but this will be his first start since returning from Dubai. Look for Tom’s d’Etat and Instilled Regard to fill out the superfecta. If you’re hoping for a bomb, Prime Attraction is the way to go. He has not won a race since November of 2017 but has consistently performed well against the top of a weak division.
Churchill, Race 8: 2:53 p.m.
The field for the Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes, at 1 1/16 miles for older fillies and mares, is underwhelming, as the division’s best have raced elsewhere recently. However, there are still some Grade 1 winners to consider. Secret Spice, the 5-2 morning line favorite, enters this spot off an upset victory in the Beholder Mile (G1). She beat some solid fillies that day, including Paradise Woods, who came back to demolish her rivals in the Santa Margarita (G2). Grade 1 winner Blue Prize will be making her 2019 debut in this race and was last seen finishing a solid fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Bayakoa (G3) winner She’s a Julie will break from the rail and typically flashes early speed. She will have company, however, as co-third choice Divine Miss Grey is a confirmed front-runner, as is Awe Emma, a 4-year old War Front filly out of multiple graded stakes winner Awesome Maria.
Churchill, Race 10: 5:04 p.m.
World of Trouble makes the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint easy to handicap. The 4-year old colt is in top form and is coming in off a victory in the Carter Handicap (G1). He’s versatile, with victories on turf and dirt, meaning he can win this even if the race is moved to the main track due to the weather. Such was the case earlier this season at Gulfstream Park. Second choice Bound for Nowhere could make things difficult on the front end for World of Trouble, and Undrafted may capitalize in the stretch.
Churchill, Race 11: 6:48 p.m.
While many are siding against the favorite, I think the Kentucky Oaks is Bellafina's race to lose. She is undefeated this year and is a multiple Grade 1 winner. She drew Post 4, which puts here in an excellent position to get into the race early. Serengeti Empress was an early Oaks favorite who bled through Lasix in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and vanned off. She has been scoping clean after works, so it seems that trainer Thomas Amoss corrected the issue. Champion Jaywalk is likely to continue to improve in her third start off the layoff. She has yet to win in 2019, but Churchill Downs is the scene of her biggest career victory, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Restless Rider looks good in this spot. She drew the far outside post, but that should not hinder her trip much. This filly has never been worse than second in her career and really likes the Churchill surface, putting together a 4: 2-2-0 record under the Twin Spires. Champagne Anyone appears to be peaking at the right time, scoring in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) off back-to-back runner-up efforts in the Forward Gal (G3) and the Davona Dale (G3). Any of these four could win if Bellafina does not run her race. Otherwise, look for them to fill out the exotics.
Suggested plays based on 50-cent wagers
For the early Pick 3 encompassing Races 5-7, consider Race 6 your freebie and single Newspaperofrecord.
For a tight budget, play: 4, 9 / 1 / 1,2 = $2. Don't expect a big return, of course, if this cashes.
But if you want to spread things out a bit, play: 4, 5, 6, 9 / 1, 2 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 8 = $20
The late Pick 4 encompasses Races 8-11, which includes an optional claiming event. For this sequence, look to single World of Trouble in Race 10.
For a tight budget, play: 1, 2, 9 / 1, 7 / 6 / 4, 7, 14 = $9
If you have a bit more to work with, play: 1, 2, 9 / 1, 7 / 1, 6, 8 / 4, 7, 13, 14 = $36
If you have a large budget to work with and are hoping to catch some bombs, play: 1, 2, 3, 9 / 1, 2, 7, 10 / 1, 6, 8 / 4, 7, 10, 13, 14 = $120
The Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes features 3-year old fillies sprinting 7 furlongs. Mother Mother drops into this spot after having no success against
Race 6: 1:17 p.m.
The Grade 3
Race 7: 2 p.m.
The Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile feature for older males, is another spot where bettors could comfortably use just one or two selections. Multiple Grade 1 winner McKinzie is the 8-5 favorite off a couple of close runner-up efforts at Santa Anita to open his 4-year-old season. Having drawn the rail, jockey Mike Smith could either send him to the lead or stalk the pace. Seeking the Soul is the one most likely to upset the apple cart, but this will be his first start since returning from Dubai. Look for Tom’s d’Etat and Instilled Regard to fill out the superfecta. If you’re hoping for a bomb, Prime Attraction is the way to go. He has not won a race since November of 2017 but has consistently performed well against the top of a weak division.
Churchill, Race 8: 2:53 p.m.
The field for the Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes, at 1 1/16 miles for older fillies and mares, is underwhelming, as the division’s best have raced elsewhere recently. However, there are still some Grade 1 winners to consider. Secret Spice, the 5-2 morning line favorite, enters this spot off an upset victory in the Beholder Mile (G1). She beat some solid fillies that day, including Paradise Woods, who came back to demolish her rivals in the Santa Margarita (G2). Grade 1 winner Blue Prize will be making her 2019 debut in this race and was last seen finishing a solid fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Bayakoa (G3) winner She’s a Julie will break from the rail and typically flashes early speed. She will have company, however, as co-third choice Divine Miss Grey is a confirmed front-runner, as is Awe Emma, a 4-year old War Front filly out of multiple graded stakes winner Awesome Maria.
Churchill, Race 10: 5:04 p.m.
World of Trouble makes the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint easy to handicap. The 4-year old colt is in top form and is coming in off a victory in the Carter Handicap (G1). He’s versatile, with victories on turf and dirt, meaning he can win this even if the race is moved to the main track due to the weather. Such was the case earlier this season at Gulfstream Park. Second choice Bound for Nowhere could make things difficult on the front end for World of Trouble, and Undrafted may capitalize in the stretch.
Churchill, Race 11: 6:48 p.m.
While many are siding against the favorite, I think the Kentucky Oaks is Bellafina's race to lose. She is undefeated this year and is a multiple Grade 1 winner. She drew Post 4, which puts here in an excellent position to get into the race early. Serengeti Empress was an early Oaks favorite who bled through Lasix in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and vanned off. She has been scoping clean after works, so it seems that trainer Thomas Amoss corrected the issue. Champion Jaywalk is likely to continue to improve in her third start off the layoff. She has yet to win in 2019, but Churchill Downs is the scene of her biggest career victory, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Restless Rider looks good in this spot. She drew the far outside post, but that should not hinder her trip much. This filly has never been worse than second in her career and really likes the Churchill surface, putting together a 4: 2-2-0 record under the Twin Spires. Champagne Anyone appears to be peaking at the right time, scoring in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) off back-to-back runner-up efforts in the Forward Gal (G3) and the Davona Dale (G3). Any of these four could win if Bellafina does not run her race. Otherwise, look for them to fill out the exotics.
Suggested plays based on 50-cent wagers
For the early Pick 3 encompassing Races 5-7, consider Race 6 your freebie and single Newspaperofrecord.
For a tight budget, play: 4, 9 / 1 / 1,2 = $2. Don't expect a big return, of course, if this cashes.
But if you want to spread things out a bit, play: 4, 5, 6, 9 / 1, 2 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 8 = $20
The late Pick 4 encompasses Races 8-11, which includes an optional claiming event. For this sequence, look to single World of Trouble in Race 10.
For a tight budget, play: 1, 2, 9 / 1, 7 / 6 / 4, 7, 14 = $9
If you have a bit more to work with, play: 1, 2, 9 / 1, 7 / 1, 6, 8 / 4, 7, 13, 14 = $36
If you have a large budget to work with and are hoping to catch some bombs, play: 1, 2, 3, 9 / 1, 2, 7, 10 / 1, 6, 8 / 4, 7, 10, 13, 14 = $120
Read More
C2 Racing Stable and Gary Barber issued the following statement Tuesday regarding the post-parade scratch of White Abarrio...
The Grade 3 Mother Goose Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct is a competitive matchup between established Grade 1...
This week's Prospect Watch showcases young horses with elite bloodlines making their debuts and early career starts across...
While most attention was on the Breeders' Cup last week, several horses got their first wins in impressive...
The Triple Crown Tracker checks in with the horses who raced in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Preakness and...