Rachel's Valentina Tops the 142nd Kentucky Oaks
Just like her famous Hall of Fame dam Rachel Alexandra, Rachel's Valentina has been installed as the morning line favorite for the 142nd running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.
Unlike her mother, however, Rachel's Valentina is unlikely to be an overwhelming favorite on the basis of the competitiveness of this year's field, and would have been only the second choice had Songbird not defected due to illness. A grade 1 winner as a 2-year old, Rachel's Valentina sat out a good bit of the beginning of the year and did not make her first start until the April 9. Facing just 4 other rivals, the popular filly gave a good accounting of herself in Keeneland's Grade 1 Ashland Stakes while finishing second by a neck to longshot, and fellow Oaks entrant Weep No More, who got up in the final strides to post the upset.
Despite the loss, supporters were pleased with the filly's performance, especially off the layoff. Despite being given lukewarm favoritism over the full field of 14, handicappers seem to be on board with Rachel's Valentina, too, given how well she ran against a good group after being out of action since the Breeders' Cup back in October.
Chief among “Valentina's” rivals are the aforementioned Weep No More, Cathryn Sophia (third in the Ashland after being previously undefeated), Land Over Sea, and Lewis Bay. Weep No More was made the co-second choice on the morning line based off her upset victory over Rachel's Valentina and Cathryn Sophia in the Ashland. She carries a 3 win streak into the Oaks after a poor debut in the slop at Churchill Downs. Her speed figures have improved with each start, and Corey Lanerie, who was aboard her for the first time in the Ashland, retains the mount for Oaks day.
Along with Weep No More, Cathryn Sophia is also the co-second choice. Winner of the Forward Gal and Davona Dale (both grade 2) at Gulfstream Park, Cathryn Sophia was trying two turns for the first time in the Ashland. She battled bravely down the stretch with Rachel's Valentina but was put away by that foe in deep stretch before the duo were ultimately passed by Weep No More. While Songbird was still in contention for the Oaks, trainer John Servis decided to pass on the Oaks and instead point Cathryn Sophia to the Eight Belles on the Oaks undercard citing distance issues for his filly. However, when Songbird defected, Servis changed his mind again and landed on the Oaks for his talented Street Boss filly.
Third choice on the morning line is Land Over Sea. Trained by Doug O'Neill, Land Over Sea has made a career out of chasing Songbird. Five times she faced the 2-year old Filly Champion, and five times she came away having seen nothing but that foe's rump. In a bid to get both Oaks points and a victory, O'Neill shipped Land Over Sea to the Fair Grounds where Land Over Sea ultimately ran away with the Fair Grounds Oaks. With Songbird away, Land Over Sea stands as good a chance as any to come away with a victory here.
Rounding out the single digit contenders is Grade 2 Gazelle winner Lewis Bay. Second to Cathryn Sophia in the Davona Dale, Lewis Bay also boasts a victory in the Grade 2 Demoiselle as a juvenile. While the top 4 betting choices all boast triple digit speed figures in their past performances, Lewis Bay's top figure is the 96 she earned in the Gazelle. While she may be a bit slower than the best in here, the thing Lewis Bay really has going for her is that she has already successfully traveled the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs twice in her career. No other filly in the field has a win at that distance.
If she can stay out of her own way, Terra Promessa looks to be an interesting prospect. Owned by Stonestreet Stables, this Curlin filly won both the Honeybee and the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. However, she has shown a tendency to find trouble in a couple of her starts. In her debut, she hopped at the start and ultimately finished third, beaten just 1/2-length when rallying from just off the pace. In her final prep for the Oaks, Terra Promessa was rank throughout the running of the Fantasy and was all out to hold off stablemate Taxable by a neck.
Lightly raced Go Maggie Go enters the starting gate undefeated but with just two career starts. She upset the Gulfstream Park Oaks last month for trainer Dale Romans after making her debut just 3 weeks prior to that start. A daughter of Ghostzapper, Go Maggie Go is obviously talented, but her biggest issue is going to be lack of experience, especially against a field of this size and talent.
Worth noting is the equipment change for longshot Rachel Alexandra Stakes winner Venus Valentine. Trained by Tom Amoss, the Congrats filly will get a shiny new set of blinkers. With only two wins on her record, her debut and the Rachel Alexandra, Venus Valentine is rightfully a longshot contender here. She's finished off the board in all her other races and found trouble in each of her first four starts. Amoss wins at a 21% clip with first time blinkers and 18% overall with starters with blinkers, but I do not think the equipment change will be enough to move this filly up.
Dream Dance, Mokat, Mo d'Amour, Royal Obsession, Paola Queen, and Taxable complete the field. Dream Dance's best race was arguably her second place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks behind Land Over Sea. She has plenty of experience but has yet to beat the best of this field. Mokat, like Land Over Sea, has seen a lot of Songbird's backside. She's run well to finish on the board in a pair of graded stakes at Santa Anita, but she would need to move forward a good bit more to win here.
King of Prussia Stable struck gold a few years back with longshot Oaks winner Princess of Sylmar and look to do so again this year with Mo d'Amour. A nice stakes winning daughter of Uncle Mo, Mo d'Amour will likely attend the pace but has been unable to get the best of Lewis Bay, making it unlikely that she will be able to better the top choices in this field. Royal Obsession earned a berth by virtue of a runner-up effort in the Gazelle after running fourth in the Rachel Alexandra. She's a stablemate to Terra Promessa and Taxable and arguably the third best filly of Asmussen's trio. Paola Queen's second place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks was good enough to get her to Kentucky. She broke her maiden two races back in her fourth attempt. I doubt the Gulfstream Park Oaks will be a key race and think her 30-1 morning line odds are more than fair.
Winchell Thoroughbreds' Taxable completes the field. Only Go Maggie Go has faced the starter less times than Taxable, but this daughter of Tapit looks like she could have a nice upside. She nearly ran down stablemate Terra Promessa in the Fantasy in just her third career start and could be dangerous if she takes another step forward. Her morning times won't “wow” you but her afternoon performances indicate that she's game.
Dothraki Queen comprises the only also eligible entrant and can draw in if someone scratches prior to 9 a.m. Friday morning. Trained by Kenny McPeek, the Pure Prize filly won the G2 Pocahontas as a juvenile before finishing worse with each start. Her only start of the 2016 year saw her finish 8th in the G3 Appalachian on the turf at Keeneland last month. Like Venus Valentine, Dothraki Queen has a penchant for trouble and would not change the complexion of the race should she happen to draw in.
This year's field drew a good mix of speedsters, pressers, and closers. Interestingly enough, none of the speed type fillies appear to be “need the lead” types, and I believe that it will be the 1-2 finishers of the Gulfstream Park Oaks, Go Maggie Go and Paola Queen, who will be most likely to go out for the early lead. Terra Promessa has speed from the rail, and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. will likely use her just enough early on to get a good position without necessarily vying for the lead. Both Rachel's Valentina and Cathryn Sophia drew outside posts but have enough early turn of foot to establish themselves well. Weep No More, Venus Valentine, and Mokat will be the early trailers with the rest of the field sorting themselves out between the two likely front-runners and the three closers.
Frankly, the oddsmaker looks to be spot on with the fillies. The top 4 have really separated themselves from their peers with the next two betting choices having a good shot to hit the board or win, too. I do not foresee a lot of surprises in terms of order of finish and expect a chalky trifecta and superfecta.
Below is the field in order of post position with morning line odds:
1. Terra Promessa 10-1
2. Weep No More 9-2
3. Lewis Bay 8-1
4. Go Maggie Go 12-1
5. Dream Dance 30-1
6. Mokat 20-1
7. Mo d'amour 30-1
8. Royal Obsession 20-1
9. Paola Queen 30-1
10. Venus Valentine 30-1
11. Rachel's Valentina 7-2
12. Cathryn Sophia 9-2
13. Land Over Sea 5-1
14. Taxable 20-1
AE. Dothraki Queen 30-1