QEII analysis: McKulick stands above the rest at Keeneland

Keeneland's Grade 1, $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday drew a compact field of seven.

Leading the way for the 1 1/8-mile turf affair is Grade 1 winner McKulick, trained by Chad Brown. She has garnered enough respect that the connections of Pizza Bianca opted to run in the Sands Point (G2) at Belmont at Aqueduct in the filly’s first start since returning from Royal Ascot.

First run in 1984, the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup was inaugurated in honor of the late Queen Elizabeth II’s private visit to Kentucky. While stateside, the queen attended the Keeneland races and presented the trophy to the winning connections.

Notable winners of the race include Rushing Fall, Time and Motion, Dayatthespa, Riskaverse and Memories of Silver. No winner of the QEII has gone on to win the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf in the same year, and only Harvey’s Lil Goil came back to hit the board in the championships in the same year.

But in 2020, the 2018 QEII winner Rushing Fall came back to run second in the championships. Dayatthespa, who won the QEII in 2012, won the Filly & Mare Turf inn 2014. The 2003 winner Film Maker did not run in the Filly & Mare Turf that year, but hit the board in the next three editions of the race. This is all likely because the race is held so close to the Breeders’ Cup races.

Here’s a look at the field.

1. California Angel. California Angel has tried both turf and dirt in her career, but it’s obvious the daughter of California Chrome prefers the lawn. She broke her maiden over Kentucky Downs’s European-style course and then upset the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland in her third career start. Subtract her dirt starts, and she has a record of 5: 2-1-1. In her most recent start, she got up for third, beaten just 2 1/2 lengths, after a six-month layoff. Her speed figures are nothing to get excited about, but she does like the Keeneland course and she could improve second off the layoff. Live long shot.

2. Gina Romantica. Gina Romantica is the “other” Chad Brown filly. This daughter of Into Mischief has compiled a record of 6: 3-1-0, but her claim to fame is being Grade 3 placed. She did win the Riskaverse two starts back before finishing a close second in the Pebbles (G3). Usually Brown runners are a must play, but I have to pass.

3. She’s Gone. She’s Gone broke her maiden just three starts back, a feat that took her five attempts. In her previous start at Keeneland, She’s Gone ran sixth in a tightly bunched finish. At her first attempt at the QEII distance of nine furlongs, she finished third, beaten by just a head. Her best speed figure, an 83, came in that 9-furlong allowance race. Pass.

4. New Year’s Eve. New Year’s Eve began her career strong, breaking her maiden at first asking and then winning an optional claimer and the Edgewood (G2), where she beat McKulick, with a third-place finish in the LaCombe Memorial sandwiched in between. Her form has tailed off in her last three starts, but her speed figures have stayed nearly the same. In fairness, her last three starts were in races that were at 1 1/4 miles (Belmont Oaks, G1, eighth), 1 3/16 miles (Saratoga Oaks, G3, third) and 1 5/16 miles (Dueling Grounds Oaks, fourth), distances that were probably more than she wanted. A cutback to nine furlongs will likely move her up. Use underneath.

5. Bellabel. Bellabel has been in excellent recent form beginning in September of last year and going with her stateside. In her first four starts, the daughter of Belardo (IRE) went 4: 0-1-1, but in her last four starts, she has gone 4: 3-1-0. That includes wins in the Blue Norther and San Clemente (G2) and a runner-up performance last out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). She earned a career best 98 Brisnet speed figure in defeat. Additionally, her speed figures have improved with each start here in the U.S. Contender.

6. McKulick. McKulick is absolutely the one to beat here. The daughter of the great Frankel has never finished outside the trifecta. She owns wins in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Jockey Club Oaks (G3). With the exception of her debut race, she has raced exclusively in graded company. Her best Brisnet speed figure is a 97, but her figures have declined in her last two starts. Despite that, she’s a clear favorite. Top choice.

7. Paris Peacock. Paris Peacock will make her stateside debut in the QEII. By Muhaarar, Paris Peacock has finished worse than third only once, but it took her eight starts to break her maiden. She followed that up with a score in the Lavarack & Lanwades Stud (G3). There’s not much to go on since this is her U.S. debut, but more often than not, second stringers in Europe are better than most of our best turf runners. Must consider.

Final thoughts

This field is absolutely devoid of speed. I expect to see a scenario similar to what we would see overseas. They’re going to be bunched up and loping along early with a sprint to the finish. If I had to guess who might go out and set the pace, I would put my money on McKulick with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. I like that California Angel’s sole stakes win came at Keeneland, and I expect her to make noise now that she’s back on her preferred surface. You can never count out the European runners, but it’s McKulick they all have to beat.

Selections

No. 6 McKulick

No. 1 California Angel

No. 5 Bellabel

No. 4 New Year’s Eve