Point/Counterpoint: The Fugue vs. Big Blue Kitten
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ZATT: Of the last 15 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, four of
them were American trained, while 11 came from Europe. With a high percentage
of our best horses running on dirt, it’s no wonder that shippers from across
the pond dominate our biggest turf race. We’re always in with a chance, and we
did win it last year, but the facts seem to verify that when the good Euros
come over, U.S. horses are up against things. Point of Entry at his best could
have made me think differently, but this now looks like a pretty ordinary bunch
of Americans headed to the turf. Meaning, once again, the Breeders' Cup Turf is ripe for
the taking for the Europeans, and in the excellent four-year-old filly, The Fugue, they are looking good for another score on U.S. turf.
Florida Filly: With the exception of Point of Entry, last year’s
American contingent in the Turf looked pretty ordinary, too, but look what
happened there. Little Mike, the gelding no one believed in despite the fact
that he kept defying the odds, crossed the wire first and nearly equaled the
world record for a mile and a half while holding off the late charging Point of
Entry in doing so. Now neither of those two are quite at last year’s level
entering this year’s renewal of the race, but there is a new player in town and
he has more than proved that he is ready to pick up where they left off. Falling
just a nose shy of winning three Grade 1 events in a row is Big Blue Kitten,
and he’s ready to roar.
ZATT: While Big Blue Kitten has allowances, and even a few
claiming races littering his lifetime past performances, The Fugue has been a top
class filly in Europe since day one. Lightly raced at two, she made her only
start a winning one, when she came from way back to score at seven furlongs. So
well liked by her connections, The Fugue made her three-year-old debut, and the
second start of her life, in an English classic. Her 4th place finish, out of
17, in the English 1000 Guineas demonstrated her class, and not surprisingly
her career has been stellar since then. Her big win in last year’s Group 1
Nassau Stakes, combined with her consistency, helped earn her the title of
Europe’s Champion Three-year-old filly. This year she is even better. Big wins
in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, and Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes point out that
she is currently in the form of her life as she prepares to come to Santa
Anita.
Florida Filly: Not every horse can be a top class, world beater
their entire career. For some, it takes a little bit longer to figure things
out and put it all together. Big Blue Kitten may have allowances and claiming
races littering his past performances, but when it comes right down to it, it’s
only recent form that matters. With Joe Bravo in the irons, Big Blue Kitten has
rounded into career form over the summer. He won two of the U.S.’s biggest
Grade 1 turf events, the United Nations and the Sword Dancer Invitational, and almost made it three in a row despite having to weave
through traffic. Clearly The Fugue isn’t the only one that is in top form.
ZATT: Females are beating the males routinely all over the
world, as most recently evidenced by Treve’s rousing win in the Prix del l’Arc
de Triomphe. While this trend seems to be more prevalent than ever of late,
females have traditionally run well in the Breeders’ Cup Turf since the
beginning. Pebbles and Miss Alleged both won the race, and several others have
accounted themselves well, despite only a small sample testing the boys at the
mile and a half of the turf. History seems to say that if a filly is good
enough to run, she generally does well. Added to that is the international record
of The Fugue’s trainer, John Gosden. The number of times the British trainer
has brought over a horse to run big in America is too numerous to count. He has
already trained four Breeders’ Cup winners, including Raven’s Pass in the
Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita in 2008.
Florida Filly: The Fugue may have John Gosden and history in her
corner, but Big Blue Kitten’s corner doesn’t look too shabby either. Trainer
Chad Brown may have only struck out on his own in November 2007, but he’s been
pretty successful since then, probably in large part to being an understudy to
Hall of Famer Robert Frankel. He may only have two Breeders’ Cup victories, but
let’s not forget that he trained last year’s Filly & Mare Turf winner
Zagora, who defeated The Fugue. Most of Brown’s best runners have been turf
specialists, and he knows how to win some of the biggest turf races in the
nation. Big Blue Kitten also has two other really big factors going for him:
his sire is Kitten’s Joy and he’s owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey. This has been
the year of the Kitten, and both the stallion and his owners have enjoyed great
success in 2013, winning owner titles and stakes races left and right. I
learned earlier in the year not to pick against the Ramseys or Kitten’s Joy,
and I don’t intend to forget that lesson now.
ZATT: Let’s not forget The Fugue’s run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last year. Narrowly beaten while third, The Fugue ran a
bang-up, but unlucky race over the Santa Anita turf course. She may have been only
three, running against the older mares, but if she did not get completely shut
off at a key juncture, it is no stretch to believe that she would already have
one BC win to her credit. At the very least, it demonstrated that she can
handle the firm turf of Santa Anita just fine. Even though, she is coming from
England, while Big Blue Kitten is the American, The Fugue might actually be the
one who holds the familiarity advantage over the Eastern based runner.
Florida Filly: Big Blue Kitten may have not raced at Santa Anita
before, but he has more than proved that he can ship and win. In his career, he
has raced at 7 different tracks and won at 6 of them. The only track he did not
win at was Ascot, and that can be forgiven as he was inexplicably on the pace
in the Group 1 Prince of Wales that day. This will not only be his first start
at Santa Anita but also his first start in a Breeders’ Cup race. It might have
taken him 3 seasons of racing to get here, but he has more than proved that he
belongs in this spot.
ZATT: Big Blue Kitten has developed into a very nice turf horse,
but I see him as far from a standout among the Americans. Let’s face it, if
Point of the Entry had not gotten hurt in the Manhattan, he would be the
American we are talking about. Big Blue Kitten has run well in all seven races
this year, but with losses to Mucho Mas Macho, Boisterous, and most recently,
Little Mike, I’m sure he does not exactly strike fear into the European hearts.
Even in his wins, he was solid but not exactly spectacular. How on earth is
that solidness going to fare when the daughter of Dansili unleashes the turn of
foot that we saw last month when she crushed top males, Al Kazeem and Trading
Leather in the Irish Champion?
Florida Filly: Let me remind you (again) that Little Mike didn’t
exactly strike fear into the hearts of the Europeans last year either, and we
already know how that turned out. Point of Entry might be America’s top turf
router, but the fact of the matter remains that he did end up injured. Big Blue
Kitten stepped up nicely, and though he lost to Mucho Mas Macho, Boisterous,
and Little Mike, he only lost by about a length to the first, 1 ¼ lengths to
the second, and a nose to the third. The loss to Mucho Mas Macho came in his
seasonal debut, and losing to Boisterous and Little Mike is hardly embarrassing
as both are Grade 1 winners. Conversely, The Fugue may have beaten top males Al
Kazeem and Trading Leather the last time she faced them, but in the two starts
against them prior to that one, she finished 3rd and 7th (and
last). A 1-for-3 record against the boys is hardly something to crow about, especially heading into a race of this magnitude.
ZATT: The Fugue has not only proven to have the ability to excel
at shorter distances, but she has also demonstrated that she is a tigress going
the 12 furlongs of the BC Turf. Last year when she came over, she was cutting
back in distance from a mile and a half race down to the ten furlongs of the
Filly & Mare Turf. That can be tough change, especially on the very firm
turf of Santa Anita. Still, I have no doubt that she would have won the race
with a clean trip, but this year she is in a better spot. The Fugue gets the
twelve furlongs this time, going up in distance from her sharp 1 1/4 mile win in her last race. This is a pattern I much prefer to what she tried to do last year.
Florida Filly: A tigress at 12 furlongs you say? Just what have
you been smoking? Sure, The Fugue has been competitive at 12 furlongs, but it
took her 4 tries at the distance to finally win going that long. All of her
attempts at the distance have been against fillies and mares; never has she
tried to race that far against the boys. Leaves a little something to be
desired, if you ask me. On the other hand, Big Blue Kitten has raced the 12
furlong distance of the BC Turf twice and fell just a nose shy of being
undefeated at the distance while weaving through traffic. I like him at this
distance more than I like The Fugue.
ZATT: Much of this debate for me boils down to European runners
vs. their American counterparts in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. As pointed out in my
opening sentence, unless we are talking about dirt, that is a battle that the
Americans seldom win. Maybe if there was a standout U.S runner, I would feel
better about the home team’s chances, but Blue Big Kitten is not that. Or maybe
if the Euros were sending second or third stringers, we would have more of a
fighting chance, but as we know, The Fugue is anything but a second or third
stringer. She is all class, and she is the one to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Florida Filly: American turf racing has really kicked into gear over the past several years, and I hardly think that American turf runners are the pushovers they once were. Little Mike and Point of Entry proved that last year by running 1-2 in this very race. Furthermore, Kitten’s Joy’s progeny have dominated U.S. turf racing this year in a way I have seldom seen one sire do. Big Blue Kitten has really blossomed, proof that sometimes all a horse needs is a little time and the right jock in the irons. Big Blue has had that this year, and I fully expect him to continue to make his presence felt in the top tier of American turf racing. You may consider The Fugue the “one to beat,” but I feel that Big Blue Kitten has her number. While she finds trouble down on the inside again, Big Blue will be waltzing home a winner.
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