Kentucky Derby 2014: Handicapping the Spiral Stakes
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Photo:
Don August
Despite
being run over an all weather surface since 2006, the (now) Grade 3 Spiral Stakes has had a big say
in the Kentucky Derby picture since practically its inception in 1972. Known by
several names over the years, including the Spiral Stakes, Lane’s End Stakes, and
the Jim Beam Stakes, just to name a few of its monikers, the race has been
contested at three different distances. Trainer William E. Adams holds the
record for most wins by a trainer with 7 victories. Legendary jockey Pat Day
holds the record for most wins in his category with 5 victories in an 8 year
span. Golden Chance Farm, with 5 wins, holds the record in the owner category.
Nineteen ninety-one
winner Hansel holds the speed record for the mile and an eighth distance at
1:46:60. Event of the Year came closest to that mark, winning the 1998 edition
in 1:47 flat. Since being switched to the all weather track in 2006, the times
have been slow by comparison. On the all weather, track traveling 9 furlongs,
2007 winner Hard Spun holds the mark for the fastest running, stopping the
clock in 1:49.41. This year a field of 12 colts and geldings will contest the 9
furlong event. Will there be an upset winner or will chalk rule the day? With a
grand total of 85 points on the line, Horse Racing Nation’s Mike B. and Ashley
once again team up to give you their thoughts on a Road to the Kentucky Derby
prep.
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Mike B.
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Ashley
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Big Bazinga—(Bluegrass
Cat—Darling Daughter, by Maria’s Mon) This gelding goes out third off the
layoff today after finishing 2nd in a first level allowance down
at Gulfstream Park on the turf. He got a perfect set up that day, as he
closed into a wicked pace up front. And while I think the pace will be hot
and contested today, I think he would really have to step up his game to take
home top honors as there are a couple a nice closers in here I rank ahead of
him. I will limit his use to rounding out the Tri or Super.
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Big
Bazinga—With Luis
Contreras aboard, this gelding will win here by 10. Bazinga! In all
seriousness, at juicy morning line odds of 30-1, he’s not a complete toss for
me. He began his career on Woodbine’s synthetic surface with a neck win going
a mile and 70 yards and then and followed up with a short ½ length loss going
8.5 furlongs in the Group 3 Grey. From what his past performances show me, I’ll
put lines through the Delta Downs Jackpot and Holy Bull as those were on dirt
because he then rounded back into good form when put on the turf. A return to
synthetics will do this son of Bluegrass Cat a world of good, but I don’t
know that he’s quite good enough to hang out with the cool crowd here. I
agree with Mike and will keep him underneath in exotic play.
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Asserting
Bear—(Bear’s Kid—Star
Guest, by Assert (IRE)) I find this Reade Baker colt to be a little bit
interesting. Due to his win in the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine, he is one
of only two runners in here who can boast a win at this trip. He also
recorded a career best Beyer of 83 with that victory and going long on
synthetic may very well be his preference. In his last, the Sam F. Davis, he
did not run all that bad considering it was his first start off a layoff, and
his first try on dirt. While I do think he has upside I also have concerns. I
envision the pace to be swift and contested. For a pace presser like himself,
he could definitely get burnt out chasing if it gets hot up front. I give him
a longshot chance and consider him worth including in my multi-race wagers.
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Asserting Bear—I agree that synthetics
appear to be Asserting Bear’s preferred surface. He placed off the board as
many times as he hit the board on the lawn. His dirt effort wasn’t all that
bad, but if he couldn’t beat that group at Tampa, I have serious doubts
concerning his abilities versus the cream of the crop at Churchill. For this
race specifically, I think he has a shot, but this group will be tougher than
what he faced in the Coronation Futurity. Trainer Reade wins at a 29% clip
when switching runners from dirt to all weather. Ignore at your own risk.
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Poker Player—(Harlan’s
Holiday—Revel in the Win, by Red Bullet) I find myself torn on this colt. On
one hand, he has talent and a right to improve. He goes out second off the
layoff, second time blinkers, and should get a fine pace set up today. He ran
decent to get up for the place last out in the local prep for today’s
assignment, the John Battaglia Memorial. On the other hand though I am not
quite sure he is good enough. If you like him, I’d never try to talk you off
of him. As for myself, I am going to limit his use to underneath in the
exotics.
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Poker
Player—I still
have a bitter taste in my mouth from when this colt beat me at the windows in
the G3 Bourbon, getting up by a length over my selection Bashart. A solid
second to Solitary Ranger last out over this very strip has me hoping that
Poker Player can help me be rid of that bitter taste with a victory at nice
odds over this group. Contender.
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Tamarando—(Bertrando—Tamarack Bay, by
Dehere) If any of his eleven rivals in today’s Spiral have the lead late in
this contest, they better be looking over their shoulder because he will be
coming. He always does. You do not get much more honest than this fella. He
has only been off the board once and that was in his first career start at 5
½ furlongs. He is proven over synthetics, proven at the trip, and ships in
with Russell “The Muscle” Baze. I believe he is the class of the field as he
has been running against the heavies out west with the likes of California
Chrome, Shared Belief, and Candy Boy. This race sets up perfect for his late
running style and he is the one who they must hold off today. He is a major,
major contender.
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Tamarando—I don’t think Mike could have put
it any better. I’m over here gleefully rubbing my hands together because I
cannot wait to see Tamarando pull this field apart at the seams. Hell, he
doesn’t even need the contentious pace he’ll probably get here in order to
win as he faced pedestrian fractions last out at this trip and still won. I have nothing further to
add here, so I’ll go back to my corner and continue to envision him
demolishing this field. Major contender.
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Coastline—(Speightstown—Culinary, by El
Amante) He was my top choice in the Southwest and he really let me down. He
received the trip I had hoped for him that day and I saw no excuse for his
effort, other than maybe he is a cut below talent wise. As for the trip I see
him getting today, I do not view it as a positive. He is a pace presser and
will probably be chasing a hot pace and I envision him burning out. For the
reasons stated I will pass.
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Coastline—Fortunately for me, I was never
high on Coastline, so I had Tapiture the same day you had this colt, Mike.
The upside here is that he’s 1-for-1 on the all weather, but that one start
came in a maiden race. At morning lines of 8-1, I’ll pass for the time being.
At the right price come post time, I’d consider him, but only at the right price.
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Smart
Cover—(Any Given
Saturday—Crazy Cousin, by Smart Strike) This colt stumbled badly in his 2014
bow for trainer Dale Romans in the Palm Beach at Gulfstream and I believe we
can draw a line through that race. If you look at his 2 year old form it’s
not half bad. Once he stretched out he ran a pair of nice efforts in breaking
his maiden at Ellis on the turf, and running second in the Iroquois at
Churchill Downs. If he improved over the winter, which he very well could
have, he may be worth a look. The fact remains though we just cannot be sure
he did indeed improve. We learned nothing in his last due to the stumble, and
when you add that to the fact he is unproven over synthetics and at the
distance, I will have to pass. I do find him interesting enough to include
underneath in the exotics though.
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Smart Cover—Like Poker
Player, this one, along with stablemate Cleburne, burned me bad at the
windows last year. I’ve learned a thing or two since then, but I think Mike
is taking the smart route here in being wary of how you play this one. As he
said, we learned nothing in his 2014 debut thanks to racing luck. For me
personally, I’m going to use the Spiral to ferret out just how well Smart
Cover may or may not be doing this far into his 3-year old year. Pass…for
today at least.
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All Tied Up—(Even the
Score—Satinet, by Olympio) This is the “other” Pletcher in the race, and
while Todd is a remarkable trainer who spots his horses with perfection, I
just can’t see this guy winning. He had a nice set up in his last, which
makes his effort look better than it is, and I feel he is outclassed in here.
He has never run a race fast enough to compete here in my opinion. He is a
pass for me.
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All
Tied Up—What to do
with All Tied Up? Your guess is as good as mine. He’s unproven on synthetics,
but the Toddster wins at a 31% clip when transferring runners from turf to
all weather. To this point, he’s had 5 different jocks in the irons, some the
best in the business. Bearing all that in mind, I’ll pass.
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Solitary
Ranger—(U S Ranger—Galileo’s
Star, by Lil E. Tee) This speedball has a pretty impressive résumé in my
opinion. As a 2-year old, he finished 2nd in a couple of maiden
races at Keeneland last spring to the talented Pablo Del Monte and No Nay
Never. He broke his maiden in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last
September, and after a dud in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, he is off
to a perfect start this year. He won a first level allowance over a yielding
swamp at the Fair Grounds and the local prep for the Spiral in the Battaglia.
Both wins came in front running style while left alone on the lead and that
is the issue I have with him today. He will not be alone today, and while he
may win the pace war, I believe he loses the battle. Another knock I have on
him is I am not sure he wants any part of the distance. He is a pass in my
opinion.
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Solitary Ranger—I really
want to like this colt, and to an extent, I do. However, I have the same
issue with him as Mike. He likes the lead, and he’s not going to get an easy
lead in this event. Last time he got caught in a pace battle, he faded out
like an old pair of blue jeans. I can’t even give him the benefit of the
doubt in exotic play, I just can’t. Pass.
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Almost Famous—(Unbridled’s
Song—Wild Gams, by Forest Wildcat) This colt lost all chance at the break in
his last race in the Fountain of Youth as he got crunched at the start. For a
frontrunner like himself, and on the speed favoring strip at Gulfstream, that
was all she wrote. He is trying synthetics for the first time today, and
while he should handle it, you never really know till they try. Add that to
the fact I believe he is up against it pace wise and I will have to pass. He
may need to be alone on the lead to shine. I will limit his use to underneath
in the exotics.
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Almost
Famous—Are his 15
minutes up yet? I just haven’t seen what all the hype has been about, and
really, that’s all he has been…hype. I understand he had a horrible start in
the Fountain of Youth, but he had a perfect trip in the Holy Bull and still
only managed 4th. Unlike you, Mike, I don’t see anything I like.
Complete pass for me.
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Harry’s
Holiday—(Harlan’s
Holiday—Daisy Mason, by Orientate) He owns a win over the strip, and gets a
jock change to Rosie Napravnik, but I just cannot endorse on the win end. To
me it seems that he wants no part of the distance and will be up against it
from a pace perspective. For those two reasons I will have to pass today.
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Harry’s Holiday—It’s hard
to judge exactly what kind of distance Harry’s Holiday will want. Sire Harlan’s
Holiday isn’t known for siring classic winners, though 2008 Triple Crown
participant Denis of Cork ran 3rd in the 10 furlong KY Derby and 2nd
in the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes. Dam Daisy Mason was unraced, and Harry’s
Holiday is the first foal of hers to hit the track. Based on what he’s shown
thus far on the track, I agree with Mike’s assessment that Harry may be
distance challenged. Pass.
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We Miss Artie—(Artie
Schiller—Athena’s Gift, by Fusaichi Pegasus) This Todd Pletcher trainee goes
out third off the layoff today, gets the services of Johnny V., and may have
a big say in the outcome of this race. He owns a win over synthetics, a grade
1 win at that, due to his victory in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and
should get a nice stalking trip today. If he can handle the extra 1/16th
of a mile, which I think he can, he will be in the thick of it down the lane.
I view him as a definite contender.
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We
Miss Artie—He’s
not a “Kitten,” but he is a Ramsey owned runner, and we all know how much the
Ramseys have dominated recently. While obviously a leading contender, We Miss
Artie has been rather inconsistent for my tastes. I think it’s safe to say
that after trying dirt at three different locales, we can shelve the hope
that We Miss Artie will be a dirt runner. He obviously likes synthetics,
however, and with a Grade 1 win over the surface, he can’t be ignored.
Contender.
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Arctic
Slope—(Van
Nistelrooy—Alpine Spring, by Coronado’s Quest) I believe Kenny McPeek is a
very dangerous trainer, but I just can’t endorse this colt winning. He is
coming in off of a layoff, has never ran this far, and will break widest of
all. He only boasts a maiden win to his resume, and would have to really improve
to have a say in the outcome here. If you want to get cute and include him
underneath, out of respect for Kenny, I wouldn’t argue with you.
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Arctic Slope—After breaking
poorly, he ran a huge race to get up for 3rd place money behind We
Miss Artie in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. If he runs that kind of race,
he could be dangerous, but the question is…will he run that type of race? He put in two poor efforts to
close out 2013 and has not faced the starter since November 30. I look at
that one of two ways: either he needed the freshening and will benefit from
it with a big effort OR he needed the freshening and will need a race (or
two) to get back to top form. All in all, I believe I’ll pass.
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Mike: Nothing fancy from me in here. I
see it as a two horse race between Tamarando and We Miss Artie, with the edge
going to Tamarando. If I were playing multi-race wagers that pair would be my
key. If I were to add one more it would be Asserting Bear. He owns a win at the
trip, on synthetics, and Beyer wise it is his best race to date. As for betting
the race individually, I will play a Trifecta keying Tamarando and We Miss
Artie on top and in second, then hitting the ALL button for show in hopes of catching a bomb. Good luck, folks.
Ashley: I want to get fancy, but none but
the top two really scream “winner.” I’ll take Tamarando and We Miss Artie
over Poker Player and Asserting Bear. For tri purposes, only
Tamarando and We Miss Artie will be played on top. I’ll add Poker Player and
Asserting Bear for second and probably utilize the ALL button for show. With
such a large field, I just can’t leave anything to chance.
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