Head to Head: Will speed rule in Kentucky Derby prep at Tampa?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Owen Almighty (5-1)

Owen Almighty is back for a third attempt to enter the Tampa Bay Downs winner's circle. He captured the Pasco Stakes by a length but was disqualified to fifth for interference. In his first try around two turns, Owen Almighty dueled with John Hancock throughout the Sam F. Davis Stakes but couldn't conquer that rival and had to settle for a half-length back in second place. The Brian Lynch trainee's Brisnet Speed Fating improved to 97, with a field-average late-pace figure of 87. He should be on his toes after a pre-race bullet five-furlong move in 1:00.2 at Palm Meadows. By Speightstown, Owen Almighty is the first foal out of the Grade 2 winner Tempers Rising, who won or placed up to 1 1/8 miles. The dam is half to a stakes-winning sprinter, and there is little black type in the third generation of the distaff line. Irad Ortiz Jr. likely will put Owen Almighty on the lead again, and Brodeur may accompany them. Owen Almighty likes the track and is making his third start off the layoff. Exotics.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Owen Almighty has done very little wrong in his career. Yes, there was the interference that cost him the victory in the Pasco Stakes. But I though he put in a solid effort in his first attempt around two turns in the Sam F. Davis. He received a career second best 96 Equibase speed figure, and superstar jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks with him. Lynch is just 8% wins with a solid 46% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year. Contender.

2. Chancer McPatrick (8-5)

Chancer McPatrick was the beast of the east heading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He had a trio of victories under his girth, including the Grade 1 Hopeful and Champagne Stakes. However, all chances fizzled in the Breeders' Cup when the Chad Brown trainee broke from the far outside, getting an exhaustive trip over a speed-favoring track. Chancer McPatrick was fanned five wide around the turn but still passed a few horses to place sixth. By the fourth-leading second-crop sire McKinzie, Chancer McPatrick is out of the winning Bernardini mare Bernadreamy. His second dam is Alcibiades (G1) heroine and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Dream Empress. Chancer McPatrick had minor surgery after the Breeders' Cup then joined his stablemates at Payson Park at the end of December. He has a steady record of four-furlong breezes in company with the well-regarded Praetor and Hopeful Stakes third-place finisher Incentive Pay. The one-run closer gets first-time blinkers, owns two triple-digit late-pace figures, and his Brisnet ratings are in the high 90s. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Chancer McPatrick is making his first start since that disappointing sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Laurie covered the less-than-ideal trip he made around the Del Mar oval, so I’ll talk about the productivity of the race. Winner Citizen Bull won the Robert B. Lewis (G3) next out. Runner-up Gaming was third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) to close out 2024 but a tired eighth in the Southwest (G3) to kick off 2025. Fourth-place finisher Getaway Car was second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and won the Sunland Park Derby. Fifth-place finisher Ferocious was fourth in the Holy Bull (G3) next out with trainer Gustavo Delgado stating prior to the race that the colt wasn’t fully primed for his best effort. Seventh-place finisher Jonathan’s Way was second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) next out, and eighth-place finisher Ecoro Azel won his next start in Japan. All in all, the Juvenile has thrown out consistent, solid runners. Brown will send Chance McPatrick with first time blinkers and is 27% wins with a 48% in-the-money rate with this angle. Regular rider Flavien Prat has the return call. Contender.

3. Hill Road (4-1)

Hill Road took to the Del Mar dirt and rolled to a third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He earned an eye-catching 101 Brisnet rating with a 119 late-pace figure. Quality Road's son is out of Exotic Notion, a Lemon Drop Kid mare who was no worse than third in eight of nine starts in Argentina. She's a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner and sire City of Light, who is by Quality Road. Now conditioned by Chad Brown and getting a shiny new set of blinkers, Hill Road has been putting in the miles over the Payson Park oval since January. If Hill Road can duplicate his late kick in the Tampa Bay Derby, he'll pave over this field. Contender.  

Now trained by Chad Brown, Hill Road ran shockingly well in his dirt debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. With Umberto Rispoli aboard, Hill Road came rolling late, cruising up to a third-place finish at 61-1 odds. Considering the talent that has emerged from the field, it's difficult to call the race a fluke. Since I already covered the productivity of the Juvenile field, I won’t go into that again here. Brown also will be running Hill Road with first-time blinkers, and the above stats obviously apply here, too. Tyler Gaffalione has been tapped to ride the colt for the first time. Contender.

4. Brodeur (15-1)

Brodeur ships in from Oaklawn, hoping for a softer spot to make his stakes debut and earn coveted Derby points. The Mark Casse colt scored in his last two starts, holding on to graduate by a head last December and by a half-length in an allowance race in January. Nyquist's son is out of Pulpit's daughter Tea Time, a three-time stakes-winning sprinter. Brodeur has Rasmussen Factor breeding, which is inbreeding to a superior mare through separate individuals within five generations. Brodeur's second dam, Asian Empress, is a daughter of Aurora, the dam of Arch. Arch is the damsire of Uncle Mo, who is Nyquist's sire. The Mark Casse trainee was uneven down the lane in both starts, and his Brisnet Speed Ratings are low. He may improve over a fast track, and although I admire his tenacity, this isn't the soft spot Casse anticipated. Pass.

Trained by Mark Casse, Brodeur is 3: 2-0-0 lifetime, with both victories coming over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. His debut race, in which he was a distant sixth, was won by Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Guns Loaded who subsequently wilted to a well-beaten seventh in the Holy Bull (G3). Two other next-out winners exited that race. Brodeur’s maiden-breaking race has produced nothing, nor has the allowance race he won in January. Jose Ortiz gets the call. Pass.

5. Filoso (15-1)

Filoso last was seen finishing nine lengths behind First Resort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He's been given time to mature, and Chad Summers has honed Filoso's speed with a series of four-, five-and six-furlong moves at Palm Meadows while wearing blinkers. City of Light's son is out of Kenda, a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Her half-sister bore Grade 1-winning sprinter-miler Domestic Product. Filoso is another one-paced type with mediocre speed ratings who needs to improve. Filoso has a disconcerting habit of opening his mouth to breathe when he runs. Pass.

Trained by Chad Summers, Filoso was third in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 30-1 odds but faded in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) to sixth off better backing at the windows. Filoso also gets a new set of blinkers, and Summers is 33% wins with first-time blinkers. Conversely, Summers is  0% across the board with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Dylan Davis, who was aboard for Filoso’s first two starts, replaces John Velazquez, who was aboard for the colt’s two graded starts. Pass.

6. Naughty Rascal (20-1)

Naughty Rascal earned the Pasco Stakes victory by way of Owen Almighty's disqualification. But Naughty Rascal had a three-wide trip around the oval in the 1 1/16-mile Sam Davis Stakes and was going the wrong way by the 1/8 pole. The Gerald Bennett trainee finished a disappointing sixth, 13 lengths behind John Hancock, and it was the first time Naughty Rascal finished worse than third in his seven-race career. By Into Mischief's son Rogueish, who captured his only start, Naughty Rascal is half to the multiple stakes-placed sprinter Awesome Anywhere. Their dam is half to the stakes-winning turf miler Prize Doll. Naughty Rascal's speed ratings are decent at shorter distances. The $400,000 question is whether he can rebound in his third start off the layoff or if his career will be as a sprinter-miler. Pass.

Trained by Gerald Bennett, Naughty Rascal failed the two-turn test in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. As Laurie said, it was the colt’s first time finishing outside of the trifecta in his career. Naughty Rascal’s speed figures have been up and down, ranging from a 76 in the Sam F. Davis to a career high 95 in the six-furlong Inaugural Stakes. This colt seems better suited for sprints, and I expect a similar effort to what we saw in the Sam F. Davis. Samy Camacho replaces Edwin Gonzalez in the irons. Pass.

7. Patch Adams (2-1)

Patch Adams placed fourth in the Southwest in his 3-year-old debut as the beaten favorite. Racing between horses most of the way, he was mentally and physically tired down the stretch, turning his head, drifting and bouncing off a passing Sandman. Still, he was only 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner, Speed King. The effort netted the Brad Cox trainee an 89 Brisnet rating, so there's room for improvement. Into Mischief's son is the first competitor out of Well Humored, a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Her full brother Muqtser is a multiple graded-placed turf router, and half-brother American Patriot won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) and set a track record on the Delaware turf in the 1 1/8-mile Kent (G3). The extended family includes multiple Grade 1 heroes Cyberknife and Well Armed. Patch Adams has been holding his own in the mornings with Tappan Street and the older Hit Show at Payson Park. He'll be stronger in his second start off the layoff. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Patch Adams finished fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Southwest, his graded debut. He received a 97 Equibase speed figure, which was a big bounce from his prior race in which he earned a 113. The Southwest form didn’t hold well. Winner Speed King was 10th next out in the Rebel (G2). Runner-up Sandman was third in the Rebel, and third-place finisher Tiztastic was fifth. Publisher improved from a troubled sixth in the Southwest to fourth in the Rebel. American Promise, who was disqualified to seventh in the Southwest, was then fifth in the Risen Star (G2). The Southwest also was Patch Adams’s first attempt at a route, so he does have room to improve here. But he's also shown to be inconsistent. Florent Geroux has the call. Exotics.

Laurie

Ashley

3. Hill Road (4-1)

1. Owen Almighty (5-1)

7. Patch Adams (2-1)

2. Chancer McPatrick (8-5)

2. Chancer McPatrick (8-5)

3. Hill Road (4-1)

1. Owen Almighty (5-1)

7. Patch Adams (2-1)