Head to Head: The favorite is vulnerable in the Whitney
A full field of 12 older horses will line up in Saratoga's starting gate Saturday for the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes. The winner earns a berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 2.
The Whitney Stakes is a key prep for the Classic and has yielded five Classic winners and three runners-up from 11 attempts. Additionally, the 1 1/8-mile event has produced five champion older horses, two of whom earned Horse of the Year honors since 2010.
This year, multiple Grade 1 winner National Treasure takes on Grade 1 winner Bright Future, plus multiple graded winners First Mission and the ultra-consistent Skippylongstocking.
The Whitney Stakes is featured as race 11 of 13 with a 5:42 p.m. EDT post time. As of this writing, according to the National Weather Service, there's a 70 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast examine past performances, race replays and statistics to come to a conclusion.
| Laurie | Ashley |
1. Post Time (20-1) | |
| Post Time has evolved into a highly reliable sprinter-miler, never off the board in 11 career starts. In his first attempt in Grade 1 company in the Met Mile, the Brittany Russell trainee dueled with Castle Chaos through the stretch, passing late and holding off the fast-closing Hoist the Gold by a neck. None of them were a match for National Treasure, who was 6 1/4 lengths in front. Frosted's pretty gray son handles a fast or sloppy surface. His dam is a stakes winner at a distance, albeit on turf. The step up in the company and extra distance might prove too much for a victory, but this colt runs well off the layoff and could mess with someone's superfecta. Lower exotics. | Trained by Brittany Russell, Post Time has excelled at distances up to a mile, including finishing second in the prestigious Met Mile (G1). This will be his first time stretching out to nine furlongs, so how he handles the extra furlong will be the big question of the day. He was no match for National Treasure in the Met Mile, which had a short, suspect field. He’ll face much tougher company here, rivals who are seasoned in route races. Brittany Russell doesn’t often ship in to NYRA tracks for graded stakes, but when she does, she comes prepared. In the last five years, she’s 18 percent with a 35 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes at NYRA tracks. But she’s never won a route race on this circuit, according to Race Lens. Sheldon Russell retains the mount. Pass. |
| 2. Disarm (15-1) | |
| Like Post Time, Disarm has been knocking at the door of a Grade 1 victory in a route. His only win at 1 1/8 miles was in the Matt Winn (G3). The Steve Asmussen trainee has tactical speed, can sit anywhere and usually gets a check. He doesn't have gears, just a slow, steady grind like many of Gun Runner's offspring. With all the speed in the Whitney, Disarm can slip to the rail and perhaps get a similar trip to last year's Travers (G1), when he was best of the rest behind Archangelo. Worth a lower exotics look. | Trained by Steve Asmussen, Disarm enters off a disappointing sixth in the Stephen Foster (G1) in what was just his second start in 2024. Although he is only 3: 1-0-0 at 1 1/8 miles, he is 3: 1-1-0 at Saratoga, with his only off-the-board effort at this track coming in the slop in last year’s Jim Dandy (G2). He still finished fourth, beaten by just 2 1/4lengths for it all. With only two total career off-the-board placings, Disarm is as consistent as they come. He likely won’t win but definitely should be included on tickets. Joel Rosario has the return call. Use underneath. |
| 3. National Treasure (9-5) | |
| National Treasure earned early Whitney favorite status with his 6 1/2-length victory in the Met Mile (G1) over Post Time. But the Bob Baffert trainee isn't all gold. I see three red flags. National Treasure doesn't like getting his hooves dirty; he finished off the board in last year's Travers and in the Awesome Again (G1) over muddy or wet-fast tracks. Also, he never has strung together back-to-back wins, and his 103 Brisnet Speed Rating in his first start after returning from running in the Saudi Cup (G1) might signal a regression. Additionally, in the last five years, Race Lens shows that at Saratoga, Quality Road has 3 winners from 33 starts at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt and one winner from six starters over mud. Pass. | Trained by Bob Baffert, National Treasure blows hot and cold. He won last year’s Preakness and this year’s Pegasus World Cup (G1) over a route of ground but is overall 7: 2-0-0 at distances of 1 1/8 miles or longer. He easily dispatched what I have already called a suspect field in the Met Mile, and that along with him being from the Baffert barn is going to bring a lot of money his way at the windows. But like Laurie, I’m leery of going all in on him. My mom is going to call us both crazy, but I, too, will also be looking elsewhere for a winner. Flavien Prat has the call. Lower exotics at best. |
| 4. Warrior Johny (20-1) | |
| In Warrior Johny's favor, he's won two of three starts at Saratoga and hit the board in three of four starts at 1 1/8 miles. He galloped home a four-length winner at the Spa in his last start, earning a career-best 111 Brisnet rating. But the Philip Bauer trainee is hit or miss against optional claimers. Pass. | Trained by Philip Bauer, Warrior Johny appears to be out of his league here. Although he does like the Saratoga track and the Whitney distance, he’s made only one prior start in graded company, a seventh-place finish in last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Bauer is 16 percent with a 37 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes in the last five years, according to Race Lens. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Joel Rosario. Pass. |
| 5. First Mission (9-2) | |
| Despite his breeding, by Kentucky Derby hero Street Sense out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare, First Mission is hit-or-miss at 1 1/8 miles. His only victory at the distance was against lesser types in the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn, although he dropped the nose decision in the Clark (G2) last November to Trademark. But that one has failed to hit the board since. He set soft fractions in the Stephen Foster in his previous start while being hounded by Skippylongstocking, but both tired. The Brad Cox trainee is better as a pace presser and has previously bested Disarm, Crupi and Il Miracolo. I expect First Mission will improve in his second start off the layoff, and he's won over a sloppy track. Contender. | Trained by Brad Cox, First Mission was favored to win the Stephen Foster (G1) last out but ended up finishing just where I thought he would in fourth. I concur with Laurie that First Mission is better sitting off the pace, and he should get that preferred trip with National Treasure to his inside. Florent Geroux has the return call for Cox. I’ll take another swing with this colt. Contender. |
| 6. Il Miracolo (20-1) | |
| Il Miracolo usually hits the board in Grade 2 and 3 company but isn't competitive against First Mission, National Treasure or even Crupi. The Antonio Sano trainee is 0-for-7 at 1 1/8 miles but hit the board four times. As a note to pedigree geeks, Il Miracolo is bred on the same lines as Disarm by Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare from the same Lowes female family (26), although not closely related. Like Disarm, Il Miracolo is one-paced and does his best if he's not too far off the pace. Manny Franco may put him into the race early, but with other speed in there, I expect he'll fade. Pass. | Trained by Antonio Sano, Il Miracolo has rounded into a much more solid runner than I ever predicted he could be early last year. But Grade 1 races are the bane of his existence; he’s 4: 0-0-1 at the highest level. Sano has been on a cold streak in the last month, sending out 28 runners with no winners and only a 4 percent in-the-money clip, per Race Lens. Additionally, he is 0% with a 9% in-the-money rate in graded stakes at NYRA tracks in the last five years. Manny Franco takes over from John Velazquez. Pass. |
| 7. Crupi (15-1) | |
| Crupi likes Saratoga, even a muddy Saratoga, and distance isn't a problem. He's had excuses in all three starts against Grade 1 company. Although he's capable of pressing the pace, the Todd Pletcher trainee has successfully changed to a one-run closing style this year. Crupi won the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) at Saratoga in June and earned a 100 speed rating in the 1 3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2) in his last start, with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons both times. Live long shot. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Crupi will be cutting back in distance after finishing a distant second to marathon specialist Next in the 1 1/2-mile Brooklyn Handicap (G2) last out. Prior to that, he beat an awful field in the Suburban (G2); his six rivals that day had exactly one graded win between them. One. Let that sink in. Having Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard is certainly a big mark for the pro column, but I think I’ll just take the hit if they beat me. Pass. |
| 8. Tumbarumba (20-1) | |
| Tumbarumba hasn't finished off the board since last July, when he threw a clunker in the Maxfield Stakes over a sloppy Ellis Park strip. Since then, the Brian Lynch trainee has traded decisions with Il Miracolo in a couple of graded stakes at Gulfstream. Tumbarumba likely will add to the pace, but I don't expect him to be around at the end. Pass. | Trained by Brian Lynch, Tumbarumba is a solid Grade 3-type runner. He’s never raced in a Grade 1 race before, and considering that he’s been trading punches with Il Miracolo, who I’m hesitant about, I find him to be diving into the deep end with no floaties. Lynch is 11 percent with a 35 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Luis Saez has the return call. Pass. |
| 9. Bright Future (5-1) | |
| Bright Future tuned up for the Whitney with a 1 3/4-length victory in the Salvator Mile (G3). Last July, he captured an optional-claiming contest before fighting to a thrilling nose decision in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) over Proxy. This Todd Pletcher trainee has tactical speed, although he does his best as a pacesetter/presser, and his 98 speed rating gives him room to improve in his second start off the layoff. Contender. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Bright Future was a breakout star at Saratoga last year, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) by a nose over the honest Proxy in his Grade 1 debut. He didn’t fare as well in the Breeders’ Cup Classic two months later, finishing sixth, beaten by 3 3/4-lengths. Pletcher gave the colt a vacation and brought him back to the races in June, with the now 5-year old winning the Salvator Mile (G3) off the layoff. Pletcher is 22 percent with a 53 percent in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Javier Castellano has the return call. Contender. |
| 10. Skippylongstocking (8-1) | |
| Skippylongstocking is a solid Grade 2 and Grade 3 competitor. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has placed third three times in seven attempts trying for that elusive Grade 1 victory. This pacesetter-presser generally runs his race and can be counted on for an exotics spot. | Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. Skippylongstocking is a runner I’d love to call my own. While he’s never won a Grade 1 race, he is multiple Grade 1 placed with a third in the 2022 Belmont, third in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and third in the Stephen Foster (G1) last out. He’s gotten better with age and is very good at this distance with a 10: 4-1-2 record. He’s never raced at Saratoga but is 2-for-2 on a wet track. Jose Ortiz has the return call. Use underneath. |
| 11. Arthur's Ride (8-1) | |
| Arthur's Ride gets a class test after destroying optional claimers by 12 3/4 lengths at Saratoga in June. The Bill Mott trainee earned a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed Rating and traveled 1 1/4 miles in 2 minutes without being fully extended. Arthur's Ride has finished out of the money only once and likes Saratoga, but Tapit's pretty gray son does his best work as a pacesetter and has folded in the past when challenged. Pass. | Trained by Bill Mott, Arthur’s Ride might have obliterated that optional-claimer field last out, but he was beaten just as badly two starts back when competing in the mud at Churchill Downs, finishing ninth, 23 lengths behind the winner. Mott obviously thinks Arthur’s Ride is ready for this class test, otherwise he wouldn’t have placed him here. But I’m not convinced. Pass. |
| 12. Charge It (30-1) | |
| Charge It returns for another shot at the Whitney Stakes. Last year, he passed tired horses and was nipped by a head for third by a game but exhausted Cody's Wish. Neither was anywhere close to the winner, White Abarrio. Yes, Charge It won the 1 1/4-mile Suburban last year, but he set an uncontested pace against four rivals, completing his final quarter in 25.16. Although the pretty gray horse is making his second start off the layoff, previously National Treasure, Skippylongstocking, Post Time and Tumbarumba beat Charge It like he stole something. Pass. | Also from the Todd Pletcher barn, Charge It was last seen finishing fifth in the Hanshin Stakes at Churchill Downs, beaten by weaker opponents than he’ll find here. He does have a pair of graded-stakes wins but hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since winning the Suburban (G2) last July. John Velazquez replaces Irad Ortiz Jr. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: In the last 15 years, every Whitney Stakes hero won or placed in their prep, except for Bullsbay, who placed tenth in the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) while rank and last year's winner, White Abarrio, who closed for third after stumbling at the start of the Met Mile.
Speaking of the Met Mile, seven of the last 15 Whitney heroes used the one-mile event as a springboard to the Whitney winner's circle. Other notable preps are the Stephen Foster and Suburban.
Inside speed rules in the Whitney. Only two closers were successful, while seven pacesetters, including two of the last three winners, got the job done. All except one winner broke from posts 1 through 6. The outlier was Fort Larned in 2012, who won from post 9.
It's a safe bet to use the favorite in your picks since they have won in six of the last eight years, and in 15 years, only four have not hit the board. The last time was in 2014.
That said, I think seven have a shot of hitting the board.
Considering the race history, National Treasure fits the winning profile since he won the Met Mile, a key prep, and is a pacesetter-presser. But he's never strung together back-to-back wins, and if the track comes up less than optimal, he can be beaten. I'm taking a stand against him based on the red flags mentioned earlier.
Skippylongstocking, third in the Stephen Foster as a pace presser, also fits the winning profile.
I'm picking First Mission to spoil the party. He's stronger as a pace presser rather than a setter, and he's won over a sloppy track.
I think a case can be made for Bright Future. He's won both starts at Saratoga, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) as a pace presser. Although all races have been on a fast track, two half-siblings have won on muddy or sloppy tracks, and Curlin has 15 percent winners on off-tracks at Saratoga. The one drawback is his outside post.
I'm tapping Crupi to pick up the pieces, although Disarm and Post Time are worth a look to spoil the Superfecta.
Ashley: Laurie and I seem to be on the same page here. I can see Disarm, National Treasure, First Mission, Bright Future and Skippylongstocking hitting the board.
Despite the poor showings from the outside posts, I’m going with Bright Future to upset the apple cart. I think the Salvator Mile has set him up nicely for this spot, and he’s undefeated at Saratoga.
I’ve always liked Skippylongstocking, and it’s only a matter of time before he finally earns a Grade 1 win. He’s got perfect wet dirt form and a solid record at this distance.
Disarm was his own worst enemy in the Stephen Foster. He was studdish in the paddock prior to the race and clearly his mind was not on business that day. A more focused Disarm will put him back in his typical good form.
Likewise, First Mission didn’t run his best race last out. I anticipate him sitting back off the pace this time and being poised to strike turning for home.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 5. First Mission (9-2) | 9. Bright Future (5-1) |
| 9. Bright Future (5-1) | 10. Skippylongstocking (8-1) |
| 10. Skippylongstocking (8-1) | 5. First Mission (9-2) |
| 7. Crupi (15-1) | 2. Disarm (15-1) |