Head to Head: Is Vahva vulnerable in the Ballerina?
The Grade 1, $500,000 Ballerina Handicap attracted eight older fillies and mares who will vie for a spot in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.
The Grade 1 Ballerina produced three champions in the last four years, and the list of recent winners includes Echo Zulu last year, Goodnight Olive in 2022 and Gamine in 2021.
This year, the seven-furlong specialist Vahva is positioned as the even-money favorite, poised to continue her impressive two-race victory streak. Having triumphed over three Ballerina rivals in the Chicago Stakes (G3), Vahva now braces herself to compete against the royally bred Scylla, who ventures into the seven-furlong distance for the first time.
The Ballerina Handicap is carded as Race 10 on the Travers undercard with a 4:20 p.m. EDT post time.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Asnley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast dance through the entries and settle on a partner.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Positano Sunset (15-1) | |
| Positano Sunset hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since last August, when she captured the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park. The Ian Wilkes trainee showed a flicker of life in her last start, the seven-furlong Chicago Stakes at Churchill, when she closed with interest to finish second 1 1/4 lengths behind Vahva and a neck in front of a tiring Society. Goldencents’s daughter earned a career-best 103 Brisnet Speed Rating, a 16-point jump from her previous start, which could signal a regression in the Ballerina. Positano Sunset’s last three four-furlong breezes over Skylight Training Center’s all-weather surface decreased in time, culminating in a bullet 47, the best of 20 for the day, a positive sign. Although she hasn’t won outside the Midwest, Positano Sunset’s past performances show she needs a couple of races to reach peak performance. If she brings her “A” game, Positano Sunset is a long shot include for exotic tickets. | Trained by Ian Wilkes, Positano Sunset had the tables turned on her by Vahva last out after beating that in an optional claimer last year. She finished 1 1/4 lengths behind the even-money favorite in the Chicago while earning a career-high Equibase speed figure of 104. She also beat Society to the wire. That was her best finish of the year, and she hasn’t won a race in over a year. Regular rider Julien Leparoux has the call. Pass. |
| 2. Chi Town Lady (20-1) | |
| Chi Town Lady, last year’s Test Stakes (G1) heroine, strings three races together for the first time in her career. But she hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since capturing the Minaret Stakes at Tampa in February. The Wesley Ward trainee recorded a bullet five-furlong move in 59.1 two works ago. Although she likes Saratoga, Chi Town Lady needs considerable improvement to be competitive against this group. Pass. | Trained by Wesley Ward, Chi Town Lady comes in off a third-place finish in an optional claimer at Saratoga. Before that she was fourth to Vahva in the Chicago. She was also fourth to Vahva in the Derby City Distaff (G1) three starts back. The 5-year-old did start off the year win in a win the Minaret Stakes at Tampa after a lengthy layoff but has proven no match for the top fillies and mares in the division. Jose Ortiz has the return call. Pass. |
| 3. Vahva (1-1) | |
| The even-money favorite, Vahva is a half-length shy of five straight victories. In her first start of the year, the Cherie DeVaux trainee was farther back than usual in the Madison (G3) and circled six wide. She gained with each stride but ran out of real estate, settling for second place. Gun Runner’s daughter recorded a career-best 104 Brisnet rating in the Chicago, where she tracked a quick early pace before finishing seven furlongs in 1:21. Vahva posted a second-to-last bullet five-furlong move at Keeneland in 1:00.20. Contender. | Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Vahva enters off two straight graded wins. She tried the Kentucky Oaks trail last year but found her niche sprinting instead. She’s a seven-furlong specialist with a 7: 5-2-0 record at the distance. But she does not have a win at Saratoga, finishing fifth and second in maiden special weight sprints as a juvenile. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Contender. |
| 4. Society (4-1) | |
| Society set a hot pace in the Chicago in her first start of the season, getting the first quarter in 22.44 and the half in 44.61. Vahva, With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, challenged her in the stretch and bumped Society hard enough to make Society switch lanes. She tired a bit from the contact and settled for third place. Society earned a 102 Brisnet rating in the Chicago and could improve in her second start off the layoff. The Steve Asmussen trainee does her best work on the front end, and she can set quick early fractions and carry her speed, as she proved in last year’s Chicago Stakes while setting a seven-furlong track record of 1:20.54 at Ellis Park. Contender. | Trained by Steve Asmussen, Society was third in the Chicago , beaten by 1 1/2 lengths by Vahva, off a 7 1/2-month layoff. Like Vahva, Society is particularly adept at seven furlongs with a 6: 3-0-2 record at the distance. I expect Society to be sharper second off the layoff, an angle at which Asmussen is successful at a 17 percent rate with a 46 percent in-the-money rate over the last year. Society has one previous effort at Saratoga, a fourth place 17 3/4-length thumping in the 1 1/16-mile Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) two years ago after stumbling at the break. Society has a field and career-best 116 Equibase speed figure that she earned two years ago in the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion (G1). Regular jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be in the irons. Contender. |
| 5. Scylla (7-2) | |
| Scylla, a full sister to multiple graded winner Tacitus and Travers contender Batten Down, shortens up after finishing second by 2 3/4 lengths to California’s dominant older mare, Adare Manor, in the 1 1/16 mile Clement L. Hirsch (G1). It was a strong effort, as it was Scylla’s first try in Grade 1 company. Previously, Scylla recorded a three-race win streak from a mile to 1 1/8 miles at Churchill. Scylla earned a career-best 101 speed figure for her Clement L. Hirsch effort, a seven-point jump from her previous race, and she can continue to improve, especially at the shorter distance. The Bill Mott trainee has tactical speed and should be considered a contender. | Trained by Bill Mott, Scylla has never been out of the trifecta in her career. She’s won at distances from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. She was most recently second to Adare Manor out at Del Mar in the 1 1/16-mile Clement L. Hirsch (G1) and thus will be coming in on a three-week turnaround. This will be her first start at Saratoga and first attempt at seven furlongs. Mott is 15 percent with a 46 percent in-the-money clip with runners going from a route to a sprint in the last year. Javier Castellano reunites with the filly after Mike Smith had the call in California. Contender. |
| 6. Shidabhuti (20-1) | |
| Shidabhuti gets her first Grade 1 test after a two-month layoff. Although the Chad Brown trainee runs well fresh, the Grade 3 winner previously was bested by a combined nine lengths in two Grade 2 events, including a 3 1/2-length loss to Accede in the Bed O Roses (G2). Pass. | Trained by Chad Brown, Shidabhuti enters off a fourth- place finish to Accede in the Bed o’ Roses (G2). She did win the seven-furlong Distaff (G3) at Aqueduct to begin 2024, getting the victory despite an eight-month layoff. Although she has primarily raced on the New York circuit, Shidabhuti has not often faced top-tier competition. Dylan Davis has the call. Pass.
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| 7. Accede (8-1) | |
| Shidabhuti’s stablemate Accede had her three-race win streak snapped by 3/4 length in the six-furlong Honorable Miss Handicap (G2). She raced near the back of the five-horse field and closed over a speed-favoring track, running out of real estate late. Into Mischief’s daughter is most successful as a pacesetter-presser, but each time Flavien Pratt takes the reins, Accede is farther back than she prefers, and the pair have one win in four starts together. Exotics. | Also trained by Chad Brown, Accede was most recently second in the Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) at Saratoga. That snapped her win streak as she had won her three prior races, including the Bed o’ Roses (G2). Last year, Accede could not keep up with the best 3-year-old fillies, no matter the distance. She does seem to have come back in better form after a failed turf experiment in September, but I don’t think she’s quite up to snuff to beat the favorites in this field. Flavien Prat has the return call. Use underneath. |
| 8. Munnys Gold (10-1) | |
| Munnys Gold is an excellent gate horse, always first or second away, and maintains her position through the half-mile. Yet in her last four starts, she’s carried her speed only once, in an allowance test at Saratoga in June. John Velazquez is a master at getting the lead and lulling them to sleep, but that seems a tall task here. Pass. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Munnys Gold enters off a fourth-place finish as the favorite in the Honorable Miss Handicap (G2). Befotre that she won a high-level allowance race off a 10-month layoff. The 4-year-old filly is 3: 1-0-1 at Saratoga and 3: 1-1-1 at the seven-furlong distance. Munnys Gold began her career undefeated in three starts, including a 17 1/4-length romp in the seven-furlong Sophomore Fillies Stakes at Tampa Bay where she earned a career-best 111 Equibase speed figure. But Munnys Gold never has never a graded race and was beaten by weaker last out. John Velazquez replaces Irad Ortiz Jr., who is aboard Vahva. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: In their final prep for the Ballerina Handicap, only one of the last dozen heroines finished worse than third, and two lost ground.
Speed rules this seven-furlong sprint, with all but four either setting or pressing the pace. Eight favorites, including five of the last six, won or placed.
Although Vahva bested three Ballerina rivals in the Chicago Stakes, I don’t see her as invincible, at least not even-money invincible.
Society was game in the Chicago Stakes, and it’s hard to say what the bumping took out of her in the stretch since she was making her first start of the year. She should be stronger here, yet she must contend with Munny’s Gold on her outside early in the race.
Scylla can set the pace, press or close as the situation dictates, and although she’s never tried seven furlongs, she graduated at six furlongs in 1:10.
Accede is a logical fourth-place choice, but I’m going with Positano Sunset to pick up the pieces.
Ashley: Society and Munnys Gold have the early speed in this field and will exit posts 4 and 8, respectively. Both are capable of wiring the field, but I believe Society has the class edge.
Vahva is the one everyone is going to be gunning for, but expect Irad Ortiz to give her a smart, though perhaps aggressive, ride. From this field, only Positano Sunset has beaten the even-money favorite, and that occurred over a year ago. I do not anticipate a repeat of that result.
Lightly raced Scylla got her career off to a late start but has been consistently good. Six of her eight races have resulted in triple-digit Equibase speed figures. By contrast, Vahva has produced four triple-digit Equibase speed figures, and they came in her most recent five starts. She could contest the pace with Society and Munnys Gold, but she typically sits back off the pace.
I’m going to take Scylla to upset Vahva and give a couple others a nod.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 5. Scylla (7-2) | 5. Scylla (7-2) |
| 3. Vahva (1-1) | 3. Vahva (1-1) |
| 4. Society (4-1) | 4. Society (4-1) |
| 1. Positano Sunset (15-1) | 7. Accede (8-1) |