Head to Head: Who can challenge Thorpedo Anna?
Champion Thorpedo Anna looks to return to the winner’s circle when she faces four rivals in Saturday’s Grade 2, $500,000 Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs. Last year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine was most recently seen finishing last of seven on this year’s Kentucky Oaks undercard.
Trainer Kenny McPeek sent Thorpedo Anna to Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital after her uncharacteristic dull run, and she received a clean bill of health. McPeek speculated that the roughing up his filly received entering the first turn coupled with the quick turnaround from Apple Blossom (G1) likely contributed to her poor finish.
La Troienne (G1) runner-up Taxed is back and is joined by Shawnee (G3) winner and runner-up Royal Spa and Gin Gin. Saffie Joseph Jr.’s Save Time rounds out the field.
The 1 1/8-mile Fleur de Lis for older fillies and mares, a win-and-you’re-in for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar, is the seventh race on the 12-race card. Post time is slated for 3:52 p.m. EDT. There is a 60% chance of showers, according to the National Weather Service, though it will be mostly sunny with a high near 93.
Here we sift through a short but talented field hunting for a Breeders’ Cup Distaff candidate.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Royal Spa | |
| After a brief freshening, Royal Spa returned a new mare, capturing the Heavenly Cause Stakes at Laurel. Then she surprised Gin Gin by 1 1/4 lengths in the Shawnee (G3) and earned her first graded accolade. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved in each start since January, topping out at a career-best 101. This 5-year-old mare has tactical speed and owns a 94 late-pace figure, the field’s highest. Royal Spa takes another shot at 1 1/8 miles. Her last try was as a 2-year-old in the Demoiselle (G2), where she placed fourth. Exotics. | Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, Royal Spa enters off an upset victory in the Shawnee. I did not like her in that spot because she had finished off the board in two prior attempts at 1 1/16 miles-plus, both graded stakes. She earned her first stakes win two starts back in the Heavenly Cause at Laurel, and the Shawnee was her first graded win. She earned a career best 109 Equibase speed figure last out. Has she really improved as a 5-year-old or was she just the best of an OK field? Flavien Prat retains the mount. Pass. |
| 2. Save Time | |
| Save Time didn’t make it to the races until February 2024 as a 3-year-old. Into Mischief’s daughter was on her way to career maidenhood, placing second or third in her first six starts. She found the winner’s circle this February in her second start under the care of Saffie Joseph Jr. Save Time beat allowance-class rivals at 1 1/8 miles in her last start, and the pretty gray filly’s speed ratings have improved in her last five starts. But taking on the best fillies and mares in the country is a daunting task. Pass.
| Save Time has two wins from 12 career starts. The 4-year-old got her first victory when winning a one-mile maiden event at Gulfstream in February in her second start for new trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. She previously was trained by Chad Brown. Save Time nabbed her second victory when winning a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs in her most recent outing. With nine overall on-the-board finishes, Save Time is a consistent type, and she’s 3: 1-2-0 going nine panels. She’ll have Irad Ortiz Jr. back at the helm and could surprise, though she’ll need to take a big step forward numbers-wise. Pass. |
| Thorpedo Anna had her four-race win streak trashed in the La Troienne (G1) in her last start. She was pinballed hard between rivals around the first turn, which might have played a factor in her uncharacteristic loss. She easily breezed a bullet five furlongs in 59.60 seconds June 14 while under a hold, so she should be fresh and ready to explode. Win contender.
| Trained by Kenny McPeek, reigning horse of the year Thorpedo Anna will try to retake the reins of her destiny after a poor outing in the La Troienne. It was her first career finish outside of the exacta and came off a quick three-week turnaround. As much as we’d all have loved to see her later on the card in the Stephen Foster (G1), a confidence booster against her own division is a safe move with a likely more ambitious end game in mind should all go well. She loves Churchill Downs and is undefeated at this distance. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. has the call. Contender. |
| 4. Gin Gin | |
| After joining Brendan Walsh’s barn, Gin Gin ran away from her rivals by 5 1/4 lengths in the Doubledogdare (G3) but couldn’t get by Royal Spa in the Shawnee (G3). The 4-year-old gets another chance to stretch out and will be part of the pace. Exotics. | Trained by Brendan Walsh, Gin Gin was my top selection in the Shawnee after a huge upset victory in the Doubledogdare at Keeneland. In the Shawnee, Gin Gin pressed the pace in second and was poised for victory, but Royal Spa was not to be denied. Gin Gin fought on valiantly but had to settle for second best. She recorded a career best 107 Equibase speed figure and tied the 99 career-best Brisnet Speed Rating she earned in the Doubledogdare. This daughter of Hightail is thriving in her new barn and will have Jose Ortiz as her pilot for the third straight time. Contender. |
| 5. Taxed | |
| Taxed put in her typical late run in the La Troienne but was denied by Raging Sea by 3/4 length, recording a 95 speed rating. She has tactical speed and owns the second-highest late-pace figure in the field. Exotics.
| Trained by Randy Morse, Taxed was a gaining second in the La Troienne as the second longest shot in the field. It was her first visit to graded company since running a well-beaten third in the Chilukki (G3) on Nov. 23. Between then and the La Troienne, she was second in a listed stakes, third in two additional listed stakes and had won an allowance race, all at Oaklawn. Taxed was third in this event last year and has an affinity for Churchill Downs. But her speed figures aren’t what you’d like to see against Thorpedo Anna when that one is 100%. She gets credit for her La Troienne effort, but I just don’t think she’ll have that type of finish against a fresh Anna. Rafael Bejarano has the return call. Exotics. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: All except two fillies in this field hit the top three in their previous starts, with seven gaining ground. Four prepped in the La Troienne.
Pressers and one-run closers have the most successful in the Fleur de Lis. Favorites have a 12: 6-2-2 record, with one placing fourth and another fifth. Five breaking from the rail have finished in the top four, with two winners.
Thorpedo Anna is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. Taxed came close in the La Troienne. Royal Spa has tactical speed, is improving, and besides Thorpedo Anna, is the only one in the field with a triple-digit speed rating. Royal Spa is by Violence out of a stakes-winning sprinter and needs to prove she can stretch her speed. Race Lens shows the stallion’s offspring hit the board only 38% of the time at 1 1/8 miles. Royal Spa gets to take the short way around, so there’s hope she can last.
Ashley: After receiving a clean bill of health and getting an eight-week freshening, Thorpedo Anna should be back to her old self. This is a field that she should have no trouble dispatching, even if she isn’t 100%.
Brendan Walsh seems to have figured out Gin Gin, who is in career-best form. If she continues to run as well as she has in her last two races, she has a hope of giving Anna a scare.
If I like Gin Gin, I theoretically should like Royal Spa more than I do. But I cannot get past Royal Spa’s lack of a solid route win. Gin Gin had no excuses in losing to Royal Spa last out, but I still believe she is the better of the two. So because of that, Taxed becomes my third choice. Although I’m not crazy about her, she is a known and proven commodity at this level and at this distance.
Selections
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