Head to Head: Debating the Fourstardave at Saratoga
Saratoga’s Grade 1, $500,000, Fourstardave, postponed from Saturday to Sunday, attracted a field of seven turf runners to contest the one-mile affair. But with the early scratch of Master of The Seas, only six will go to post. Charlie Appleby’s other entry, Ottoman Fleet, inherited the role of morning-line favorite.
Along with the lion’s share of the purse money, the winner of the Fourstardave will qualify to contest the Breeders’ Cup Mile on Nov. 2 at Del Mar. Since 2010, three runners have completed the Fourstardave-Breeders’ Cup Mile double, including World Approval in 2017, Tourist in 2016 and Wise Dan in 2012 and 2013.
Bill Mott won the last two editions of the Fourstardave with Casa Creed, and Appleby won the last three runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Mile with Space Blues, Modern Games and Master of The Seas.
With tropical storm Debby moving through, expect the turf to be less than firm.
Post time for the Fourstardave, race 10 of 11, was rescheduled for Sunday at 6:16 p.m. EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Strong Quality (8-1) | |
| There’s a lot to like about Strong Quality. He has speed on the rail, improving Brisnet Speed Ratings, and is capable over firm and soft turf. Draw a line through his Manhattan (G1) finish. 1 3/8 miles is too far, but the listed winner is capable up to 1 1/8 miles. Mark Casse gave Strong Quality three recent breezes over Saratoga’s dirt course, including a second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 1:00.0. Strong Quality is jumping in class, but he could hold on for a piece and worth a look for lower exotics. | Trained by Mark Casse, Strong Quality is coming in off a career-worst effort or a career-best effort, depending on how you look at it. From the worst standpoint, the 5-year old was eighth in the Manhattan (G1), beaten by seven lengths. It was both his worst placing and the greatest number of lengths by which he’s ever been beaten. On the other hand, he earned a career-best 114 Equibase speed figure. In fairness, routes have never been his strong suit, so the cutback to a mile will be right up Strong Quality’s alley. He’s 3: 1-1-0 on wet turf, and Dylan Davis takes over from Florent Geroux. Pass. |
| Scratched. | Scratched. |
| 3. Major Dude (8-1) | |
| Major Dude is hit or miss. He’s never strung together back-to-back victories, and although he’s been on top against Grade 2 and 3 competition, he hasn’t faced this caliber of foe. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez team up and Major Dude could improve in his third start off the layoff, but his late-pace ratings generally are in the mid to low 80s. Pass. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Major Dude always has been a favorite of mine. He’s got a couple of good things going for him here. He won his only other start at Saratoga last out with a career-second-best 106 Equibase speed figure. He’s also 2-for-2 on wet turf. As Laurie pointed out, the 4-year old is inconsistent and never has strung two wins together, but I think a less firm track could be to his advantage. Irad Ortiz Jr. has ridden Major Dude for most of his races, but John Velazquez was aboard last out and retains the mount. Contender. |
| 4. Carl Spackler (9-5) | |
| Carl Spackler’s only defeat since last August was an uncharacteristic fifth in the Poker Stakes (G3) in June. He’s capable against lesser types, has tactical speed and likes Saratoga. Chad Brown gave Carl Spackler a pre-race bullet five-furlong spin on the turf course in 1:01.55. He has the look of an upsetter. Contender. | Trained by Chad Brown, Carl Spackler enters off a victory at Saratoga in the Kelso Stakes (G3). Overall, the 4-year-old colt is 8: 5-1-0 with a mark of 4: 3-0-0 at Saratoga as well as 2: 2-0-0 on wet turf and 5: 4-0-0 at the mile distance. In other words, this is the perfect race for him. I really can’t find much to nitpick at here. Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount. Contender. |
| 5. Money Supply (10-1) | |
| The one-run closer Money Supply found new life on turf when he got up to win the listed Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial on yielding turf. But a Grade 1 event at Saratoga is a long way from Horseshoe Indianapolis. His Brisnet ratings are consistently in the high 90s against the Midwest older horse division on dirt. Joe Sharp gave Money Supply a solo four-furlong spin around Saratoga’s turf course in 48.60, the second-best of 68 for the day. Practical Joke’s athletic son cut the corner and quickened down the lane without being asked, with a rhythmic stride. Despite the decent breeze, Money Supply appears up against it. Pass. | As Laurie said, Money Supply took to lawn like a pig to mud last out for trainer Joe Sharp. Although the race was at Horseshoe Indianapolis, it’s worth noting that multiple graded stakes winner and Grade 1-placed Masteroffoxhounds, Grade 3 winner Runaway Storm, and multiple stakes winners Me and Mr. C and Gray’s Fable were part of the field. So I can see why Sharp is taking a shot here. I think this guy could surprise. Manny Franco has the call. Live long shot. |
| 6. Ottoman Fleet (8-5) | |
| This Charlie Appleby trainee hasn’t faced the same upper-tier competition as his now-scratched stablemate. But he won the Wise Dan (G2) for fun by 1 1/2 lengths and could keep things lively on the front end. Ottoman Fleet has some of the highest late-pace figures in the field, in the 90s through 101. He’s cutting back in distance, but that’s not a concern given his forwardly placed running style. Contender. | Trained by Charlie Appleby, Ottoman Fleet has an excellent record of 19: 7-5-5 and is 3: 2-1-0 since arriving stateside. He also is very experienced on wet turf with a 14: 4-4-4 record on anything less than firm. Interestingly enough, Ottoman Fleet never has competed at a distance less than 1 1/16 miles. I don’t think the cutback will make a big difference as Ottoman Fleet likes to be on or near the pace. Flavien Prat retains the mount. Contender. |
| 7. More Than Looks (7-2) | |
| More Than Looks showed promise against allowance and Grade 3 company last year and launched a rally from the back in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, only to miss by two lengths. But we haven’t seen him since then because of a tendon injury. He was scratched from the Lure Stakes (G3) on Aug. 3 because of rain, so he shows up here. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has fired three consecutive bullets over Keeneland’s dirt and turf tracks. Perhaps More Than Ready’s 4-year-old colt has improved during his layoff, but the goal is the Breeders’ Cup Mile again, and he needs to start somewhere. Exotics. | Trained by Cherie DeVaux, More Than Looks is making his first start since finishing sixth, beaten by two lengths, in a blanket finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. DeVaux is 19 percent with a 52 percent in-the-money rate with runners coming off a six-month-plus layoff. But it will be interesting to see whether DeVaux runs More Than Looks here. As Laurie said, she scratched him from the Lure (G3) because of rain, and the track conditions are likely to be the same, or worse, as last weekend. If he runs, he stands a good chance of a good placing, but I’m not hanging my hat on it. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: The last favorite to capture the Fourstardave was the phenomenal Wise Dan in 2012 and 2013. Thus the race has yielded seven double-digit payouts over the last dozen years, the highest of which was $27.00 in 2021.
The previous race form is hit or miss. The last two Fourstardave heroes won their preps, but overall, five of the last 12 can make that claim. Posts 1-6 are the place to be. Three have won from the rail, while five of the last dozen exited the 6 post.
Speed does well at a mile on Saratoga’s turf; eight of the last 12 winners were pace pressers or setters, although the last three winners closed from off the pace.
It’s hard to look beyond Charlie Appleby’s dominance in the turf leagues. Ottoman Fleet could keep the pace lively. His Brisnet numbers certainly make him competitive.
Carl Spackler is taking a class jump, yet the 4-year-old is ultra-consistent. More Than Looks might need a race, but he’s firing bullets and could hit the board.
Ashley: Though short on quantity, this year’s edition has plenty of talent. Strong Quality will have speed from the rail, though Ottoman Fleet could put the pressure on early.
Everyone in the field has prior experience over a wet course. Only More Than Looks lacks a win on wet turf, though he’s never been off the board under those conditions.
Ottoman Fleet is the obvious play here since he hails from the Charlie Appleby barn. Chad Brown’s Carl Spackler is the deserving second choice, but neither of them will offer much return on investment.
I’m going outside the box here and taking Major Dude on top. Velazquez will have him forwardly placed, and he should be in fine fettle third off the layoff. He’s run two solid races in allowance company and appears to be prepared to step back up in class.
The two favorites will definitely be on my ticket, and I’ll be using Money Supply off what I consider to be a sneaky good race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
Selections
Laurie | Ashley |
| 6. Ottoman Fleet (8-5) | 3. Major Dude (8-1) |
| 4. Carl Spackler (9-5) | 6. Ottoman Fleet (8-5) |
| 7. More Than Looks (7-2) | 4. Carl Spackler (9-5) |
| 1. Strong Quality (8-1) | 5. Money Supply (10-1) |