Head to Head: 2-year-olds step up in Bashford Manor
The $225,000 Bashford Manor Stakes on Churchill Downs’s closing day drew a field of seven 2-year-old colts for Sunday’s six-furlong test. Most of the field are last-out maiden winners looking to add early black-type status to their resume.
This Grade 3-turned-listed stakes typically attracts early-speed types who might struggle when routes come calling later in their careers. Most of these sprinters won’t factor in next year’s Kentucky Derby picture, but the race has produced legitimate classic contenders in the past.
The Bashford Manor’s pedigree speaks for itself. Summer Squall won here before taking the 1990 Preakness. Boston Harbor (1996) and Favorite Trick (1997) parlayed Bashford Manor victories into Breeders’ Cup Juvenile wins. Classic Empire dominated this race en route to the 2016 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and a Derby runner-up finish.
Carded as race 6 of 11, post time for the Bashford Manor is 3:18 p.m EDT.
After reviewing the past performances, race replays, pedigrees and statistics, here are our views on this race.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Spice Runner | |
| Spice Runner adds first-time blinkers after running a touch green in his debut. He pressed the early speed before taking a commanding lead in the stretch. The Steve Asmussen trainee then briefly lost focus, ducked slightly and switched leads when tapped with the crop. But he straightened out and won by 2 1/2 lengths. Spice Runner completed five furlongs in a good 58.36 seconds with a sharp 12.20-second final furlong, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed Rating. Gun Runner’s son is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Gunite, who showed precocity as the winner of the Hopeful (G1) and Saratoga Special (G2) runner-up, and later as an elite sprinter in the Forego (G1) and second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Spice Runner’s siblings and dam won or placed in their second start. Contender. | Trained by Steve Asmussen, Spice Runner debuted a winner as the odds-on favorite over this track on May 23. As Laurie said, he did show some immaturity in that race and will run with blinkers in this start. Asmussen is 11% wins with a 36% in-the-money rate with first time blinkers over the past year. Three of Spice Runner’s four rivals have run since this race, but only one hit the board. Jose Ortiz gets the return call. Contender. |
| 2. Longstrider | |
| In his debut, Longstrider broke a step slow but with a few others near the back of the pack. He was aggressively ridden the entire way and circled the field five wide at the 1/8 pole. He continued without incident, grabbing the win by a half-length. Longstrider runs with his head up. The Genaro Garcia trainee completed five furlongs in 59.08, with a 12.40 final furlong. He recorded a 70 Brisnet Speed Rating and an 82 late-pace figure, average for the Bashford Manor field. One rival returned to win at Presque Isle Downs, so the class of Longstrider’s rivals is suspect. Union Rags’s son is a half to the stakes-winning turf sprinter, Rustler. The extended family includes Jim Dandy (G2) winner A Little Warm and Grade 2-winning miler Mini Sermon. Longstrider shows no recorded works in May, and only two in June. He had a solo four-furlong pre-race move in 47.60, sixth-best of 51. He wasn’t asked until after the wire, when he was slightly niggled, but Longstrider is a one-paced sort and didn’t quicken when asked. Exotics. | Trained by Genaro Garcia, Longstrider also debuted a winner over this course. It was a workmanlike performance, but as Laurie stated, the class of the field he beat is so far suspect. Garcia is 9% wins with a 29% in-the-money clip in non-graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Edgar Morales gets the return call. Pass. |
| Duke of Suggins broke smartly from the rail in his winning debut and showed initial speed but willingly settled four lengths off the pace. He passed horses without incident down the lane, and when he heard a rival closing, he quickened and dug in, showing competitiveness. The Al Stall Jr. trainee completed five furlongs in 58.46, with a 12.40 final furlong. He earned a 77 speed rating with an 82 late-pace figure. Duke of Suggins was flattered when a pair of rivals returned to win at the same level. By Second Crop sire Tom’s d’Etat, Duke of Suggins is the first foal out of the unplaced Liam’s Map mare Graceful Fancy. His second dam is Grade 1 winner, Icon Project, who also bore Grade 2-winning turf router Fashion Business. Third dam La Gueriere is a reine-de-course , or superior female, whose descendants include the sires Munnings and Lasting Approval. Duke of Suggins had a pre-race four-furlong move in 47.00, seventh best of 128, in company with the 3-year-old maiden winner Something Stronger, a $450,000 daughter of Justify. Duke of Suggins, intense and focused, worked hard to stay with her until she dusted him without trying on the gallop out. Contender. | Trained by Albert Stall Jr., Duke of Suggins also debuted a winner over the Churchill Downs track. Like Longstrider, he was an upset winner. Duke of Suggins showed professionalism is settling off the leaders in his debut rather than engaging in a speed duel. He received a 77 Brisnet Speed Rating and an 86 Equibase speed figure for the performance. Stall is 20% wins with a 30% in-the-money rate in non-graded stakes over the last year. James Graham gets the return call. Contender. |
| 4. Romeo | |
| Romeo is the most experienced with two starts under his girth and a black-type designation. After destroying maidens by 10 lengths at Laurel, Romeo didn’t love the competition in the Tremont Stakes. He struggled to keep up through a 22.20 first quarter and was hard-ridden throughout. He was a tired horse, going up and down in the stretch, but managed to pass a pair of tired rivals to get third-place money by a neck, beaten 11 lengths by the stylish winner. Despite the distant finish, the John Robb trainee earned an 86 speed rating, but his 80 late-pace figure is one of the lowest in the Bashford Manor field. By Honor A.P., who is seventh on the second crop sire list, Romeo is out of the unplaced Not for Love mare, Fancy Love. Although there are a couple of graded-placed runners in the second generation of this family, the third generation is all class. It includes multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Frosted, champion 2-year-old Midshipman, and everyone’s favorite goofball, multiple Grade 1 runner-up Solomini. Romeo has shipping and experience, but Baytown Dreamer, the horse he barely beat by a neck in the Tremont for third, finished 2 1/4 lengths behind Spice Runner in his second start. Baytown Dreamer is still a maiden after three starts, so Romeo’s class is suspect. Additionally, Race Lens shows that Romeo’s five half-siblings have a combined 21 starts with four wins among them, at Maryland tracks and Parx. Pass. | Trained by John Robb, Romeo debuted a winner at Laurel, cruising to a 10 1/4-length victory in a 4 1/2-furlong event. He did nab a minor award in the 5 1/2-furlong Tremont Stakes at Saratoga, but as Laurie said, he really had to work for it. Robb is 0% wins with a 30% in-the-money in non-graded stakes races over the past five years. Xavier Perez gets the return call. Pass. |
| 5. Comport | |
| Comport showed tenacity in his debut. He shadowed the pacesetter throughout, then the pair dueled down the stretch, slightly bumping. Comport’s rival backed off and tired, while Comport continued strongly to the wire under a hand ride, beating a green but gaining Password by 2 1/4 lengths. The Eddie Kenneally trainee completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:04.32, with a 6.60 final half-furlong. He received a 79 speed rating but a low 78 late-pace figure for his efforts. By Collected, Comport is the second foal out of the unplaced Flatter mare, Bartlett Narrows, a half sister to Grade 3-winning miler, Trace Creek. Comport’s half-brother never won but placed four times at the maiden-special-weight level at Saratoga, Churchill and Oaklawn. Comport worked a pre-race five furlongs in 1:00.20, second-best of 19, in company with the Quality Road 2-year-old maiden Quality Spirits, scheduled to debut on the Bashford Manor undercard. Comport was hard-held on the outside of his rival, and the flashy chestnut briefly pulled slightly ahead through the wire but was shut down by his rider. Comport paddles with his left fore, but is a big, long-striding colt. Exotics. | Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Comport is another in this field who debuted at Churchill Downs. He appeared on the scene on June 1, winning a high-level, 5 1/2-furlong maiden event by 2 1/4 lengths. Password was runner-up in that race. No one from that race has made a subsequent start. His 79 Brisnet Speed Rating is the third highest in the field behind Romeo and Saul Elliot. Luis Saez gets the return call. Exotics. |
| 6. Saul Elliott | |
| Saul Elliott flashed speed in his debut as the favorite at Santa Anita. He dueled down the stretch with the pacesetter. Saul Elliot was going up and down instead of forward, meaning his mind was on his rival. Saul Elliot won the battle of wills and refocused, passing and winning by 2 1/4 lengths. It was a good learning experience. The Doug O’Neil trainee completed 4 1/2 furlongs in 51.96, with a 6.03 half-furlong, earning an 86 speed rating with an 89 late-pace figure, the highest in Bashford Manor. He recorded a series of steady breezes and had a solo pre-race four-furlong gate breeze in 48.40. With high knee action, Saul Elliott started to tire at the end and was tapped to keep going on the gallop out. By California sire Listing, eighth on the first-crop sire list, Saul Elliott is out of the unplaced Indian Charlie mare Cryptic, a half to Peruvian champion female sprinter Ole Pegasus. Saul Elliott’s four half-siblings have a combined 27 victories in 108 starts, buy class is suspect. They spent their careers in the Southwest and Canterbury, with the rare early victory at Del Mar or Santa Anita. Saul Elliott adds distance while shipping. Pass. | Trained by Doug O’Neill, Saul Elliot ships in from the West Coast, where he easily won a California-bred maiden race on May 25. Three rivals have made another start since then, and all three failed to hit the board while competing against state-breds. O’Neill is just 9% wins with a 27% in-the-money rate in Kentucky over the last five years. Saul Elliot received an 86 Brisnet Speed Rating and a field-high 89 Equibase speed figure. Antonio Fresu makes the trip east for the return call. Pass. |
| 7. Password | |
| Password is the only Bashford Manor entrant who hasn’t visited the winner’s circle. Password faced Comport in their debut. Breaking from the rail, Password broke in, slightly bumping a rival. Then he steadied a few strides out of the gate, losing five lengths. Making a sustained rally, Password greenly blew the turn, angling five wide and then ducking in. He continued erratically down the stretch, turning his head and lashing his tail while passing rivals. Password straightened out late and continued advancing to gain second place. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee earned a 75 speed rating, but his 86 late-pace figure is the second-highest in this field. Uncle Mo’s son is out of Secret, a daughter of Street Sense. Secret’s half-sister bore multiple Grade 1 winner National Treasure. But Race Lens shows that Password’s five siblings own a combined two wins in 27 starts, although most hit the board at Keeneland, Santa Anita and in the Midwest. Exotics. | Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, Password is still a maiden. He put in a strong finish to run second to Comport in his debut and certainly can improve with the experience under his girth. Flavien Prat has the return call. Exotics. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: We’re looking for a colt who won his debut and either gained ground or extended his lead in the stretch. But four of the last 12 winners were making their third or fourth start, usually shippers. A pair of shippers from Santa Anita and Pimlico fit this profile.
Pacesetters and pressers rule. One closer has won in the last dozen years. Only two favorites didn’t win or place second.
Seven Bashford Manor winners and runners up broke from the rail. The rest were successful from posts 4 through 6.
Most last-out maiden winners regress in their second start. But there are clues to determine who will progress against winners. Family class, how they finished in their debut, and post-debut works are some of those clues.
Handicappers usually overlook family class of the contenders. While family black type is obvious, especially in the immediate family, what is more important is how many siblings win and the class of their races. There are plenty of examples of well-bred, expensive babies who can’t run a lick and whose siblings are camera-shy. More weight should be given to the runner whose siblings successfully compete at a major track. The primary word is successful. Siblings who can’t find the wire with a guide dog at Saratoga yet win at Finger Lakes show a lower class.
Spice Runner, Longsrider, Duke of Suggins, Comport and Password fit the bill.
How they finished is a clue, especially if there was trouble. Only two of our contenders didn’t win their last race, but a few overcame trouble.
Longstrider and Password overcame trouble and both gained ground in the stretch.
Post-debut works are key< The works after the debut, especially the second work post-race should be as good or better than what they ran before their debut.
This is the shakiest clue of the lot because many times trainers will either not work them between starts because they are babies or they back way off of them. That being said, post race works that are as good or better than those before their debut are a very good sign that you have a progressor.
Longstrider, Duke of Suggins, Comport, and Password fit this requirement.
So, five colts tick the boxes of a last-out maiden winner who can progress.
I don’t like the month-long gap between Longstrider’s reported breezes. Was he galloping, or did he have a minor health issue? While he ticks most boxes, I’m going to toss.
Ashley: Laurie highlighted the key things to look for when handicapping juveniles, especially this early in their career. She did an excellent job, and I have nothing of value to add there.
We both like the same colts, but it’s difficult to really separate them. Longtime readers know that one of my favorite angles is “horse for course.” That isn’t very helpful here as five of the seven entrants debuted over this track, notching four wins and a runner-up placing.
Another favorite angle of mine is speed figures, but, in this case, the numbers don’t tell an accurate story of ability, in my opinion. The colts with the two highest Brisnet Speed Ratings, Romeo and Saul Elliot, are both tosses for me. Romeo really struggled at Saratoga, and Saul Elliot beat California-breds who so far have been unable to defeat other state-breds in subsequent races.
I’m also taking Spice Runner on top. As Laurie highlighted, he has a lovely pedigree and should be well suited here. He also comes from a high-performing barn and has a top-notch pilot in Jose Ortiz. He was green in his debut, but the blinkers should help. Password also should move forward off his debut, and he really beat himself last out. I’ll round it out with Comport and Duke of Suggins.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Spice Runner | 1. Spice Runner |
| 7. Password | 7. Password |
| 3. Duke of Suggins | 5. Comport |
| 5. Comport | 3. Duke of Suggins |