Head to Head: Renewed rivalry in Whitney showdown
Nine of the best older horses in training will enter the starting gate this Saturday for the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes, a traditional highlight of the Saratoga meet. The winner punches a ticket to the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1.
In the last 11 editions, the Grade 1 contest has produced five Classic winners and three runners-up, plus five champion older horses, two of whom earned horse-of-the-year honors.
This year’s Whitney boasts a competitive lineup. The spotlight falls on the renewal of a compelling rivalry between Sierra Leone, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, and Travers Stakes (G1) champion Fierceness. The pair have met four times previously, with each colt claiming two victories.
Waiting to spoil the party are 2023’s Whitney champ White Abarrio, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) hero Highland Falls, the ever-reliable Skippylongstocking and Post Time, runner-up here in 2024.
A pair of rabbits could stir up the pace scenario and set the stage for a potential upset.
The Whitney Stakes is featured as race 11 of 13 with a 5:41 p.m. EDT post time.
We’ve pored over past performances, race replays, and all the to find the hidden angles of this year’s Whitney.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Mindframe (5-2) | |
| Mindframe was entered in the Whitney in case Fierceness doesn’t run. But Todd Pletcher stated that Mindframe will aim for the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Aug. 31. | Will scratch. |
| 2. Skippylongstocking (10-1) | |
| Skippylongstocking is back for another shot at the Whitney. Last year, he finished a rare fifth but had the excuse of being bumped at the start, which can knock the wind out of a horse. The 6-year-old road warrior rarely wins, but in his last start, the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee showed the California contingent his tail in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) at Santa Anita. Skippylongstocking will have company on the front end, but unless he encounters trouble is a predictable exotics play. | Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Skippylongstocking was last seen winning the Hollywood Gold Cup despite being entered in the Stephen Foster (G1) at the end of June. That race came up tough, so Joseph scratched the popular 6-year-old. Although only Sierra Leone returns from the Stephen Foster, this race came up equally as tough. Skippylongstocking appreciates the 1 1/8-mile distance but lacks a top-level win despite being multiple Grade 1-placed. He has just one previous start at Saratoga, a fifth-place finish in last year’s edition of the Whitney. Jose Ortiz has the call. Exotics. |
| 3. Highland Falls (8-1) | |
| Highland Falls is another capable sort who picks up a check frequently. He had an easy Whitney prep to kick off his 5-year-old season and won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga last year in the best performance of his life. The Brad Cox trainee has tactical speed and a pair of recent five-furlong moves over the main Saratoga track. Vote him most likely to upset the Whitney finish if a possible fast pace knocks out the top contenders. Exotics. | Trained by Brad Cox, Highland Falls dominated the 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup but fell flat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, weakening to finish ninth of 14, 14 1/2 lengths behind winner Sierra Leone. He received a nice vacation and popped up for the first time this year in an optional claimer on June 27 at Aqueduct. He won easily and could continue to move forward second off the layoff. Cox is 23% wins with a 62% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Luis Saez has the mount. Contender. |
| 4. Mama’s Gold (50-1) | |
| Mama’s Gold has the lungs to carry his speed 1 1/8 miles while on the lead, but he is better suited to optional-claiming and state-bred stakes ranks. He likely was entered to help ensure a fast early pace for a certain one-run closer. Pass. | Trained by James Ferraro, Mama’s Gold is a stakes winner against New York-breds. But he was a 40-1 outsider when he won the Empire Classic Stakes. For a horse who I believe has no business in this race, Mama’s Gold does occasionally throw respectable speed ratings, including a 98 last out when finishing second in the Commentator Stakes. Ferraro has one career graded victory with Double Dee’s way back in 1996. Romero Maragh has the mount. Pass. |
| 5. Sierra Leone (2-1) | |
| A quirky horse who rarely gets it together, Sierra Leone always hits the board but seldom wins because circumstances must fall exactly right for him to do so. Chad Brown straightened him out with blinkers this year, yet Sierra Leone appeared one-paced through the stretch in the New Orleans Classic (G2) and Stephen Foster (G1). There are a pair of rabbits in the Whitney to ensure Sierra Leone’s chances of an elusive Grade 1 victory at Saratoga. No shocker if he wins, but I predict another runner-up performance. Exotics. | Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone blows hot and warm. There’s no cold in this scenario as he never fails to hit the trifecta, but there are definitely races he should have won if he hadn’t been his own worst enemy. The blinkers have helped with that, but he still needs pace to run at. Laurie mentioned the two rabbits in here, and since one is also a Brown entrant, we should see see enough speed to help Sierra Leone find the winner’s circle. He has six straight triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings and regular jockey Flavien Prat. Contender. |
| 6. Disarm (15-1) | |
| A classy Grade 2 performer, Disarm closed for a distant fourth-place finish in last year’s Whitney and finished second, a length shy of Arcangelo in the 2023 Travers. The Steve Asmussen trainee does his best as a pacesetter or presser but has been switched to a one-run closer style since last June with little success. A quick pace could get Disarm into the lower exotics, but I’m going to pass. | Trained by Steve Asmussen, Disarm was prominent on the 2023 road to the Kentucky Derby. He’s the type to run well and cash a check but typically fall short of getting his photo taken. Disarm is 5: 1-1-1 at Saratoga, but the glaring stat is his record at 1 1/8 miles. He’s just 6: 1-0-0, but he has finished fourth at the distance four times. Joel Rosario has the mount. He is cross-entered in an optional claimer on Aug. 1, but if he goes in this spot, then he’s a long-shot play in the bottom of the superfecta. |
| 7. White Abarrio (4-1) | |
| White Abarrio shocked the 2023 Whitney field with a jaw-dropping 6 1/4-length score under Rick Dutrow’s care, paying his fans $22.40 for the victory. The pretty gray horse was wiped out by a trip to Riyadh for the 2024 Saudi Cup (G1), and after a dismal showing in the Met Mile (G1), Saffie Joseph Jr. gave him a few months off. The vacation helped, and White Abarrio picked up a few more stakes wins. Toss his poor showing in June’s Met Mile because White Abarrio was body slammed on both sides coming out of the gate and bumped again before rounding the first turn. White Abarrio is customarily close to the pace but is adaptable to settling farther back if asked. Contender. | Also from the Joseph barn, White Abarrio does his best running at Gulfstream Park. Of his 10 career wins, only two have been away from the South Florida track, including a triumph in the 2023 edition of the Whitney. Laurie has a lot more faith in White Abarrio’s chances than I do. I can forgive his placing in the Met Mile, but it’s just difficult for me to get past his inconsistency away from Gulfstream. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Exotics. |
| 8. Contrary Thinking (50-1) | |
| Contrary Thinking was entered as a rabbit for a certain one-run closer who has similar ownership. The 5-year-old bay gelding didn’t make it to the races until last year. He hasn’t lived up to his potential against sprinters, but he has classic distance breeding. Into Mischief’s son is a half to Tuscan Gold, who was third in last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2). His dam, Valadorna (Curlin), is a Grade 3 winner and was second in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Valadorna is a half to Grade 1 winner and sire Complexity. The Chad Brown trainee won easily at a mile in his last start, so we’ll see if he will ensure a fast pace or if the other riders take back and ignore him, since the only other need-the-lead type is Mama’s Gold at 50-1. Pass. | Also from the Brown barn, Contrary Thinking has one job on Saturday, and that’s to ensure a lively enough pace to make Sierra Leone’s closing kick more effective. This will be the lightly raced 5-year-old gelding’s graded debut and first race farther than a mile. Dylan Davis has the mount. Pass. |
| 9. Fierceness (9-5) | |
| Fierceness bumped with White Abarrio at the start of the Met Mile and had to alter course a few feet later as Raging Torrent came over in front of him to grab the lead. Fierceness shadowed that rival but lost focus in the stretch and settled for a distant second. Todd Pletcher’s charge is a prima donna and needs everything to go his way to win. He likes to be near the front end, and contact with another horse ruins his day. Fierceness is a pacesetter-presser and can settle a few lengths off the lead. But he’ll get a wide trip and could be compromised by the rabbits. Contender. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Fierceness has failed to hit the board only twice in his career. He had an eventful run in the Met Mile but did win the Alysheba (G2) in his first start off his layoff after a runner-up effort to Sierra Leone in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Those two have traded blows four times, including in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, with the two colts deadlocked as each finished ahead of the other twice. Fierceness is 4: 3-1-0 at Saratoga with victories in the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers last year. He’s also 2-for-2 at 1 1/8 miles. Regular jockey John Velazquez has the mount. Contender. |
| 10. Post Time (12-1) | |
| Never off the board, Post Time is an example of a local horse who took a shot at the big time. Undefeated at Laurel Park and Pimlico, Brittany Russell took Post Time’s act on the road with success in last year’s Carter (G2) at Aqueduct and followed up with second- and third-place finishes in the Met Mile, last year’s Whitney and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with a strong rally for a runner-up finish. This year, the pretty gray horse tuned up for the Whitney with a third-place finish in the Blame (G3), beaten a head for second, and easily bested optional claimers at his home track, earning an eye-catching 126 Brisnet late-pace figure. Post Time has demonstrated tactical speed, and his late pace figures consistently exceed triple digits, unlike those of his competitors. Post Time could pull the upset. Live long shot. | Trained by Brittany Russell, Post Time never fails to deliver. He’s a two-time graded winner in sprints but also has big runner-up efforts in the 2024 Met Mile (G1) and 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. I really have nothing bad to say about this son of Frosted, and he’s an easy play across the board. Russell is just 9% wins with a 30% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, but it’s not from lack of trying on Post Time’s part. Regular rider Sheldon Russell has the mount. Exotics. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Over the last 15 years, only one Whitney victor placed worse than second in his previous start. Six prepped in the Met Mile. Five lost ground in their final prep.
Pacesetters and pressers dominate the Whitney. One closer, Honor Code in 2015, was successful in 15 years.
Favorites have a 15: 7-2-3 record. The last favorite to get the job done was Life Is Good in 2022.
Posts 4 and 5 have produced the most Whitney winners, with two each winning from posts 2, 6 and 9. Bet the horse breaking from the rail. They hit the top four 66% of the time, although only one, Honor Code, won.
This meet, pacesetters have been the most successful with 17 victories. Pace pressers-stalkers won 14 times, and a single one-run closer got the job done.
If both rabbits run, it could throw a wrench into Fierceness’s plans. I like that the diva drew outside, so he should get a clear trip. He can settle a few lengths off the pace and get the jump on the rest, like he did in last year’s Travers and this year’s Alysheba.
Skippylongstocking, Highland Falls and White Abarrio can sit inside of Fierceness with similar trips, and Post Time on the outside also has tactical speed.
Perhaps Sierra Leone finally will get a winning trip, but he’s 0-for-3 at Saratoga, and closers are up against the speed-favoring track. They’ve completed the trifecta multiple times this season, so a second- or third-place finish is likely.
Skippylongstocking, Highland Falls and White Abarrio are logical candidates to pick up a check. If you’re thinking outside the box, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility for the latter two to pull off the upset victory, especially since Fierceness is a hit-or-miss type.
My eye is on the wise guy horse, Post Time. His pedigree is filled with durable stakes winners. He has quietly racked up over $1 million and climbed into graded stakes. Not bad for an $85,000 yearling purchase. It would be a shock if he won, but I’m including Post Time in my picks.
Ashley: With the entry of Contrary Thinking, we know Brown and the owners of Contrary Thinking and Sierra Leone are trying to set things up for a Sierra Leone win. Mama’s Gold added to the mix should further aid in that. Hopefully for them that plan doesn’t epically fail a la Qirat in the Sussex (G1).
Consistency is a key factor here. Sierra Leone and Post Time never have failed to hit the trifecta. Highland Falls and Fierceness, both 11: 6-2-1, rarely finish outside of the top three. Then Disarm and White Abarrio have 62.5% and 68% strike rates, respectively, in the trifecta. I don’t think I have to state the obvious problem.
Like Laurie, I fancy the outside draw for Fierceness. It should keep him out of trouble, and historically speaking, middle to outside posts are what he typically draws anyway. Give me a glass of water because I am doubling down and taking the chalk in the top two spots as Fierceness and Sierra Leone meet for a fifth time.
Highland Falls and Post Time both have good shots to hit the superfecta. We saw Highland Falls get a nice prep in allowance company to tighten the gears before leaping back into the graded stakes ranks. I’m taking him over Post Time. And I really hate leaving Skippylongstocking out of this, but solid Grade 1 affairs just haven’t been his forte.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 9. Fierceness (9-5) | 9. Fierceness (9-5) |
| 7. White Abarrio (4-1) | 5. Sierra Leone (2-1) |
| 5. Sierra Leone (2-1) | 3. Highland Falls (8-1) |
| 10. Post Time (12-1) | 10. Post Time (12-1) |