Head to Head: Opposing views on Saratoga's Fourstardave
The $750,000, Grade 1 Fourstardave, a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, attracted a field of 10 turf milers. Headlining the field is Tim Yakteen’s Johannes, who fell short in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile by 3/4 length, which also may have cost him the Eclipse Award for male turf horse.
The race honors the “Sultan of Saratoga,” Fourstardave. For eight straight years the hard-knocking gelding summered at Saratoga, winning at least one race at the Spa each year. Past winners of the race read like a who’s who of some of the greatest turf milers this side of the Atlantic Ocean. Included in that list are Lure, Da Hoss and Wise Dan.
The Fourstardave is the ninth race on Saturday’s 13-race card. Post time is slated for 4:28 p.m. EDT.
In a well-matched field, we sort through the entrants to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
| Ashley | Laurie |
| 1. Cugino (10-1) | |
| Trained by Shug McGaughey, Cugino enters off an optional-claiming win at Aqueduct. It was a good starting point for the colt’s 2025 campaign as it was his first race off a six-month layoff. Cugino has a couple of stakes wins but none at the graded level. Last year he was second in the Hill Prince (G3) to Deterministic, fourth in the American Turf (G2) and second by a nose to Neat in the Transylvania (G3). Cugino’s speed ratings are below the best in the field. McGaughey is 19% wins with a 40% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return call. Exotics. | Competitive last year at the Grade 3 level, Cugino steps up in class and down in distance after besting optional-claiming allowance types at Aqueduct in his 4-year-old seasonal bow. His Brisnet Speed Ratings are middling and he’ll have to improve to win, but he could hit the board with a decent trip. Exotics. |
| 2. My Boy Prince (15-1) | |
| Trained by Mark Casse, My Boy Prince enters off a neck loss in the Highlander Stakes (G2) at Woodbine. He also was second in the Jaipur (G1) after winning the Elusive Quality Stakes to kick off his 2025 campaign. This 4-year-old gelding is multiple Grade 1-placed but just has never gotten a graded victory despite being a multiple stakes winner. One of these days he will get that graded victory, but I doubt today is his day. Jose Ortiz has the mount. Use underneath. | My Boy Prince was competitive in routes on Woodbine’s Polytrack last year. This year, Mark Casse shook up the program with a trio of sprint stakes. My Boy Prince responded with a win and a pair of close second places. The pretty gray gelding’s Brisnet Speed Ratings also have improved. He’ll be close to the lead and may get to take the short way around if Cugino backs off the pace. Live long shot. |
| 3. Johannes (5-2) | |
| Trained by Tim Yakteen, Johannes dominated the West Coast turf scene last year, winning four straight graded events but coming up just short to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He notched one more victory in the San Gabriel (G2) to close out his 2024 campaign but hasn’t raced since. He earned three 100 Brisnet Speed Ratings over the course of that six race campaign. Johannes loves the distance, with a 5: 4-1-0 record at a mile. Yakteen has shipped only one runner to New York in the last five years, and it wasn’t a successful trip as Carmel Road finished eighth in the Gotham (G3). Yakteen is 17% wins with a 43% in-the-money rate with runners first off the layoff. If we see the same Johannes as last year, then this should be his race to lose. But Yakteen has a poor track record when shipping outside California, which gives me pause. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli will make the trip east. Contender. | The class standout, Johannes just missed last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile victory by 3/4 length. He hasn’t run since December, which raises the rust factor, but he’s undefeated at a mile on the turf and comes in fresh with sharp works. If he fires off the layoff, they’ll be chasing him home. Win contender. |
| 4. Think Big (6-1) | |
| Trained by Michael Stidham, Think Big enters off a length victory in the Kelso (G3) over runner-up Intellect and third-place finisher Win for the Money. The Godolphin homebred also notched victories in the Shakertown (G2) and Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2) but was never a threat when finishing seventh in the Jaipur (G1) after an awkward start. Think Big has a 6: 5-0-0 record on turf and a 2: 1-0-0 at Saratoga. Think Big has been primarily a sprinter, but he did show that he can get a mile when winning the Kelso (G3) last out. He earned a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed Rating three starts back in the Turf Sprint (G2) and received a 98 for the Kelso (G3). Luis Saez has the call. Contender. | A lightly raced gelding who keeps improving, Think Big earned a career-best 97 Brisnet rating when winning the Kelso (G3), a traditional prep for the Fourstardave. He cut the corner, zipped between horses in the stretch and passed Intellect, who offered no resistance. The Michael Stidham trainee has tactical speed, his speed ratings fit, and I’m going to think big and label him a Contender. |
| 5. Win for the Money (8-1) | |
| Also from the Mark Casse barn, Win for the Money was most recently third in the Kelso (G3) behind Think Big and Intellect. He also was seventh in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1). Win for the Money upset the Woodbine Mile (G1) last year but has been inconsistent in graded company, putting together a 9: 1-1-3 record in graded stakes. Win for the Money did get about a five-month freshening prior to the Kelso and could move forward off that. Casse is 19% wins with a 56% in-the-money clip with runners second off a 2-6 month layoff. Dylan Davis has the call. Exotics. | Win for the Money had a three-wide trip in the Kelso (G3) and was green in the stretch, swerving and losing focus. He managed to hang on for third behind Think Big and Intellect. The Mark Casse trainee could move forward in his second start off the layoff, and he has back class at this level. Win for the Money usually runs his race, and his speed ratings are in the solid mid-90s. Exotics. |
| 6. Intellect (5-1) | |
| Trained by Chad Brown, Intellect has made three starts for Brown since arriving in the states. He’s 3: 0-2-1 for Brown with runner-up efforts in the Poker (G3) and the Kelso (G3). Overall, Intellect has three wins from 12 starts and hits the board more often than he wins. Additionally, Intellect was favored in his last two starts and failed as the favorite. Regular rider Flavien Prat has the mount. Exotics. | Intellect has been runner-up in his last two graded tries, the Poker (G3) and the Kelso (G3), posting Brisnet figures of 95 and 96, respectively. Although his speed ratings fit, Intellect’s 84 late-pace figure suggests that the Chad Brown trainee was tired at the end of the Kelso and offered no resistance to Think Big. He seldom wins but is worth an exotics look. |
| 7. Spirit of St. Louis (6-1) | |
| Also from the Brown barn, Spirit of St. Louis was last seen finishing sixth as the favorite in the Manhattan (G1). This 6-year-old thrived in New York-bred stakes and has been competitive since venturing into open company. He’s 5: 2-0-0 in graded stakes. Although a bit hit or miss, those two wins were in Grade 1 events. Spirit of St. Louis is 4: 1-2-0 at Saratoga and 4: 3-0-0 at the mile distance. If he brings his A game, Spirit of St. Louis can win this, but which version of the gelding shows up is anybody’s guess. Regular rider Manny Franco gets the leg up. Contender. | Spirit of St Louis cuts back in distance after a dispirited sixth-place finish in the Manhattan (G1). This year, he has a definite win-lose form, but the Chad Brown trainee is competitive at a mile and found success staying closer to the lead. Live long shot. |
| 8. Deterministic (9-2) | |
| Now in the care of Miguel Clement, Deterministic was the determined victor of the Manhattan (G1) last out. He also won the Fort Marcy (G2) two starts back. Deterministic began his career on dirt, winning the Gotham (G3) in his second career start. But his next two dirt starts left a lot to be desired. Switching to turf has been key for him, and he has not failed to land in the trifecta in seven turf starts. The 4-year-old son of Liam’s Map received a 98 Brisnet Speed Rating for his Manhattan victory, and he consistently earns those types of numbers. Kendrick Carmouche has the call. Contender. | Deterministic hasn’t finished off the board since switching to turf routes last June. His speed ratings improved in each outing this year, and team Clement has conditioned Deterministic into one of the top turf horses in the country. He has tactical speed, can set quick fractions and sustain his speed. Contender. |
| 9. Lagynos (20-1) | |
| Trained by Steve Asmussen, Lagynos was last seen finishing third in the Wise Dan (G2). He also notched a third in the Arlington (G3) two starts back. After failing to really take to the dirt in a bid to get to the Kentucky Derby, Lagynos was switched to the lawn. He’s been a decent turf horse, putting together a 12: 2-3-4 record over the surface. But he’s definitely not a Grade 1 type and previously finished behind others in this field. Joel Rosario has the call. Pass. | Lagynos was a Grade 3 winner last year but hasn’t hit the board in recent tries at this level. A consistent sort, the Steve Asmussen trainee usually picks up a check, but Lagynos’s Brisnet ratings of 88 and 89 need dramatic improvement to be competitive here. Pass. |
| 10. Neat (20-1) | |
| Trained by Rob Atras, Neat enters off a fourth-place finish in the Kelso (G3), checking in behind Think Big, Intellect and Win for the Money. He has managed to find trouble in his last three races, including being eased and walked off in the Dinner Party Stakes (G3). Neat was in good form last year, winning three graded stakes. But his last victory was a year ago to the day in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2). Since then, Neat has hit the board only once in six starts. Atras is 11% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the past five years but is 0% across the board in graded stakes in 2025. Junior Alvarado has the mount. Pass. | Neat is a hard-luck horse. He’s been checked or had to steady in his last three starts, yet he managed to close for fourth money twice. The Rob Atras trainee was competitive against this group last year, finishing ahead of Deterministic, Cugino and Lagynos in graded stakes, so the talent is there. But he went off form at the end of last year and is still trying to regain his 3-year-old form. The last time Neat stood in the winner’s circle was in last year’s Hall of Fame (G2). If Neat gets a clean trip, he could be competitive, but the outside post doesn’t do him any favors. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Ashley: There’s not much speed signed on with just My Boy Prince and Deterministic showing any early turn of foot. Either one of them could strike the front and be long gone as they hit the stretch.
Johannes is a vulnerable favorite with several factors to overcome. Foremost is the layoff as every other entrant is racing fit. Secondly, Johannes has shipped outside California only once in his career. The result was a fifth-place finish in the American Turf (G2). Thirdly, Yakteen himself has a poor record outside California. So I’ll be taking a stand against Johannes as a win play.
Deterministic is my top choice with the tactical advantage of nearly being the lone speed. I also like Think Big off his Kelso victory over some of this field. It was difficult to separate several, but Spirit of St. Louis is another who is a real talent when he brings his best game to the table.
Laurie: 15 years of Fourstardave history reveal an unpredictable pattern of winners, with a 15:5-3-1 overall record in their last starts, and eight instances of losing ground in those races. Four shortened up from longer distances.
Although all running styles are successful, pace pressers and setters won 73% of the time.
Bet the favorite, but not to win. The last time the favorite stood in the winner’s circle was in 2013, when the remarkable Wise Dan won his second consecutive Fourstardave.
Since then, favorites have finished second or third six times, including the last three years. This makes the Fourstardave a decent betting race. Recent win payouts haven’t been below $5.70 and offered double digits seven of the last 10 years.
Here’s an oddity for you. From 1997 to 2024, all winners exited either posts 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6, even in larger fields of nine to 12 horses. We have to go back to 1996 when Da Hoss got the job done from post 10. There’s no bias for horses completing the underneath spots. Do with it what you will.
Saratoga’s lawn has played mostly fair this meet. Pace pressers-stalkers own the advantage with 12 wins. Pacesetters are close with 10, while one-run closers have prevailed 8 times.
The Fourstardave drew a closely matched field, and traditionally is a tough race to handicap as the favorite hasn’t won in a dozen years, so my commentary reflects this.
Johannes runs well fresh, is 4-for-5 at the distance, and breaks from post 3. Hopefully, he won’t be the post-time favorite, because they rarely win.
Think Big rallied past Intellect and Win for the Money in their last meeting, and he loves having his picture taken. He won the traditional Fourstardave prep and has a big chance to win. I’m giving Johannes the nod because of his class.
Deterministic could be tough if he establishes an easy lead. But I expect My Boy Prince will keep him busy, so Deterministic might not get the easy early lead that he has enjoyed in his last couple of starts.
I’m torn between the two Chad Brown entries, Intellect and Spirit of St Louis. Intellect hasn’t done anything wrong and enters with a sharp turf work for Chad Brown, but he must break through with a graded win before I give him the nod.
Spirit of St Louis has a strong-weak race cycle this year and didn’t lift a hoof in the Manhattan (G1) in his last start but won the Turf Classic previously, so if the cycle holds, he’s due for a good race. He’s a dual Grade 1 winner, so he has the class.
Selections
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