Head to Head: Is Candied really all that sweet in Alabama?

Laurie

Ashley

1. Intricate (6-1)

Intricate hopes to continue improvement in her third start off the layoff. Gun Runner’s one-paced daughter lost touch with her three rivals in the early stages of the CCA Oaks. She motored down the stretch to pass tired Leslie’s Rose, but the Brendan Walsh trainee wasn’t quick enough to gain ground on Candied or Thorpedo Anna. Intricate earned a 90 Brisnet Speed Rating, up eight points from her previous start. Gun Runner’s only classic-distance winner is Preakness hero Early Voting. Race Lens shows Gun Runner has two winners from 24 starters at 1 1/4 miles, but 46 percent of his offspring finish second or third. Unless there’s an abnormally quick pace, Intricate will grind her way down the lane, passing tired horses to pick up a check for the exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, I did not like Intricate in the CCA Oaks. She was entirely overmatched by Thorpedo Anna. However she did post a career-high 93 Equibase Speed Figure, continuing on with her history of running mediocre numbers. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione has the call. I do not see this filly as a win threat, but she certainly could fill out the exotics.

2. Chatalas (8-1)

Another Gun Runner daughter, Chatalas does her best work as a pacesetter. The Mark Glatt trainee set a comfortable, unpressured pace in the 1 1/16-mile Indiana Oaks. She was challenged at the quarter pole, fought to the wire and prevailed by a determined neck over Little Jamie, who finished third in the Monmouth Oaks (G3) in her next start. Chatalas earned an 89 Brisnet rating, a decent effort in her first start of the year. Out of a winning Indian Charlie mare, Chatalas has a solid middle-distance pedigree. She may contend with a few other fillies with forwardly placed running styles but hasn’t faced this caliber of rivals and has strong indications of a speed-fade candidate. Pass.

Trained by Mark Glatt, Chatalas is coming in off a career-best race in the Indiana Oaks. She won by a head and received a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, but she was in the care of Grant Forster at the time. It was her first effort off the shelf, having had a six-month-plus layoff after a valiant second to Medoro, who is racing in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) on Saturday, in the Blue Norther on turf. I’ll be intrigued to see whether her form holds off the vacation as she lost her last two dirt starts as a juvenile by a combined 28 3/4 lengths. Frankie Dettori has the call. Pass.  

3. Power Squeeze (9-2)

Power Squeeze fought hard down the lane with allowance winner Sidamara in the 1 1/16-mile Delaware Oaks (G2), winning by a thrilling nose. Previously the Jorge Delgado trainee was a fast-closing third in the 1 1/8-mile Acorn (G1) behind Thorpedo Anna and Leslie’s Rose, so she has the class to handle this group. Power Squeeze has tactical speed, although Javier Castellano has taken her off the pace in her last two starts. Although her 91 Brisnet rating decreased from the 94 in the Acorn, Power Squeeze recorded a 101 late-pace number in the Delaware Oaks, second highest in the Alabama field. By Union Rags, Power Squeeze is out of an Awesome Again mare. Her pedigree and running style suggest she’ll enjoy 1 1/4 miles. Contender.

Trained by Jorge Delgado, Power Squeeze enters off a nose victory in the Delaware Oaks. In her prior two starts, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn (G1), she was no match for top-tier filly Thorpedo Anna. She’s facing a much weaker field here, and although she’s never won beyond 1 1/16 miles, she could surprise. Contender.

4. Just Basking (5-1)

The pretty gray Just Basking began her career in March and has steadily improved, winning the listed Iowa Oaks in her last start by 4 3/4 lengths under a hand ride. The Ian Wilkes trainee earned a career-best 94 Brisnet rating, and her 106 late-pace figure is the highest in the Alabama field. By Arrogate, the late-maturing Just Basking’s unraced dam is a half-sister to 2019 Belmont Stakes hero Sir Winston. Although she’s getting a class test in the Alabama, Just Basking is already a winner at 1 1/4 miles and is worth an exotics play.  

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Just Basking enters off a career-best effort in the Iowa Oaks. She earned a 91 Equibase Speed Figure while winning the 1 1/16-mile event by 4 3/4 lengths. As Laurie pointed out, her breeding skews toward routes, and she’s already won at the Alabama distance of 1 1/4 miles. I discounted Arrogate in the Travers. I will not make the same mistake here. Contender.

5. America’s Vow (20-1)

America’s Vow is the Alabama’s why entry. In previous starts she was no threat to Intricate, Power Squeeze and Miss Justify. The one glimmer in her past performances was a victory at 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga against allowance types. Making her first start of the season, Grade 1-placed Central Avenue was second. Pass.

Trained by Timothy Hamm, America’s Vow has only two wins in 10 starts plus two more on-the-board placings. Her last attempt in graded-stakes company resulted in a 36-length drubbing in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Júnior Alvarado has the call for the first time. Pass.

6. Miss Justify (6-1)

Miss Justify steps up after stringing together two wins, including a one-length victory in the one-mile Wilton Stakes. The other Todd Pletcher trainee’s speed ratings are rising, and she earned a career-high 98 in the Wilton. Justify has just four starters on dirt at 1 1/4 miles with one third-place finish, but his offspring have placed at 1 1/2 miles, so it’s just a matter of time before the young sire gets a classic-distance winner. Miss Justify’s distaff line and damsire, Majesticperfection, are speed-oriented. Miss Justify has tactical speed and can improve in her third start off the layoff. She gets a class and distance test but is worth a look for the exotics.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Miss Justify enters off a one-length victory in the one-mile Wilton Stakes at Saratoga. She posted a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure in that race. Miss Justify never has competed past a mile and never has been favored in a race. But as Laurie said, Justify’s offspring have placed at classic distances, so it stands to reason that this should be within her scope. Flavien Prat has the return call from the Wilton. Pass.

7. Candied (7-5)

Candied was no match for Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks, but she still finished four lengths clear of Intricate. The only Grade 1 heroine in the field, Candied hasn’t finished worse than fourth in her six-race career, and that was a fourth-place finish in her 3-year-old debut in the Ashland (G1). Candied has similar breeding to Gun Runner. Both are by Candy Ride out of mares by sons of Storm Cat. Candied pressed the pace in her last two starts, and she’s a legitimate contender.

Also trained by Pletcher, Candied enters off a valiant second-place finish to Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks. The absence of Thorpedo Anna makes this a very enticing spot for the daughter of Candy Ride. Although it is a Grade 1 event, it is still a drop in class for this filly. Manny Franco has the return call. Contender.

8. Neon Icon (15-1)

Neon Icon looked like a good thing, winning her first two starts by a combined 9 3/4 lengths. She failed a mild class check in the Indiana Oaks but appeared flat while in traffic and never got going. The pretty gray Neon Icon is by Arrogate out of a winning Medaglia d’Oro mare. That dam is a half-sister to 2011 horse of the year Havre de Grace, who was second in the 2011 Alabama, beaten by a neck by her archrival Blind Luck. Although she’s won at 1 1/4 miles, the Rusty Arnold trainee deserves another shot at the big leagues, but this league might be too much for her right now. Pass.

Trained by Rusty Arnold, Neon Icon enters off a fifth-place finish in the Indiana Oaks, 5 1/2 lengths behind Chatalas. But she won her first two career races against elders, including an off-the-turf event at this distance at Churchill Downs. She obviously has the ability to get 1 1/4 miles, but the question is whether she can do it against quality competition. Luis Sáez has the mount. Exotics.

Laurie

Ashley

7. Candied (7-5)

7. Candied (7-5)

3. Power Squeeze (9-2)

4. Just Basking (5-1)

6. Miss Justify (6-1)

3. Power Squeeze (9-2)

1. Intricate (6-1)

8. Neon Icon (15-1)