Head to Head: There is room to find a price in Grade 1 Frizette

Laurie

Ashley

1. Snowyte (6-1)

Snowyte controlled a swift early pace in her Saratoga debut. She changed leads late in the stretch, lost focus, drifted slightly while tiring, and was caught late, earning an 86 Brisnet rating for her efforts. The Danny Gargan trainee dons a shiny new set of blinkers for the Frizette to help her focus. Snowyte returned with two 4-furlong moves in 49 seconds over the dirt training track.  

Snowyte should enjoy the extra distance of the Frizette. Good Magic's daughter is the third winner out of a multiple-stakes winning miler. Snowyte's half-sister bore Dancing Groom, who was third in last year's Champagne (G1). Graded winning turf router Upperline and Grade 1-placed turf router Snowflake are part of the second generation of the female family. Exotics.

Trained by Danny Gargan, Snowyte enters the Frizette still a maiden. As Laurie said, she ran a good race in her debut, nearly taking the seven-furlong, $100,000 maiden event at Saratoga gate-to-wire, but lost focus and tired. Gargan will try blinkers on the filly for this start. In the last year, Gargan is 25 percent with a 50 percent in the money rate with both first time blinkers and blinkers on. Sire Good Magic broke his maiden in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, so it wouldn’t be preposterous to see Snowyte do the same here. Joel Rosario takes over from Luis Saez. Contender.

2. The Queens M G (10-1)

The Queens M G was cross-entered in the Alcibiades (G1) but scratched to run in the Frizette. The Queens M G captured the Schuylerville and Adirondack Stakes by open lengths. She was one of the favorites for the seven-furlong Spinaway Stakes (G1) after a nine-length victory in the Adirondack Stakes (G3), but she tired down the lane after contesting the pace, her Brisnet speed rating dropping from a career-best 89 in the Adirondack to a 74. Saffie Joseph, Jr. gave The Queens M G two moderate maintenance works for the Frizette.

By fourth-ranked first-crop sire Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), The Queens M G is the second foal and second winner in her immediate family. Class skips to the third generation of her distaff line to multiple graded winner and producer Parade Queen, best known as the second dam of the sire Bodemeister, the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner who was runner-up in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Parade Queen is also the second dam of multiple Grade 1 heroine, She's A Julie. The Queens M G showed early brilliance, but the later maturing fillies may have caught up to her. Still, she's demonstrated class, and I'm not ready to toss her after one poor race. Add her to your exotics if you're playing the field.

Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., The Queens M G enters off a fifth-place finish in the Spinaway (G1). After contesting the early pace, she weakened to finish 11 3/4 lengths behind winner Immersive. She received an even bigger thumping in the $150,000 Astoria Stakes at Saratoga in her second career start. She played bumper cars throughout the entirety of the race and ended up finishing last of seven, 18-lengths behind winner Whatintheliteral. When she’s good, she’s very good, but when she has an off day, she throws complete clunkers. Still, she has the best Equibase speed figure in the field with the 97 she earned in her debut. Like Laurie, I’m willing to give her another shot should she run here. Dylan Davis retains the mount. Exotics.

3. Pondering (12-1)

Pondering bested maidens at Ellis Park but was outclassed in the Spinaway Stakes. She never got into the race and finished a distant seventh, bested 23 lengths. I'm tossing that race because it was what I call a case of the threes; shipping, trying a longer distance, and facing winners for the first time; additionally, it was her first start over a muddy track. Many youngsters regress when asked for too much too soon.

The Brendan Walsh trainee returned with a pair of four-furlong works over Saratoga's turf training track before switching back to dirt for a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:02.

Pondering should appreciate the extra distance of the Frizette. Hard Spun's daughter is the second competitor and winner out of Always Thinking, a stakes-winning turf sprinter, who is the only blacktype earner out of Que Piensa Cat, a Group 1-winning turf sprinter. Always Thinking's half-sister bore the stakes-winning turf sprinter/miler Sharp Aza Tack. Pondering must improve from her initial 82 Brisnet rating to be competitive, but she should love the extra distance. Exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Pondering enters off a seventh-place finish in the Spinaway (G1), in which she was beaten by 23 1/2 lengths. I think Laurie makes a valid point about this filly having what she calls a case of the threes, plus Pondering gets a jockey upgrade in Flavien Prat. My big concern is that Pondering received just a 74 Equibase speed figure in her debut, a number that puts her in the mid to bottom part of the field. Walsh is just 10 percent with a 30 percent in the money rate in graded stakes over the last year, per Race Lens, and is just nine percent with a 41 percent in the money clip with sprint-to-route runners. This is another filly that probably deserves another shot, but I haven’t seen enough of her to be confident in her ability to win this after such a poor showing last out. Pass.

4. Whatintheliteral (50-1)

Whatintheliteral was all heart while winning the Astoria Stakes, fighting every step of the way. Stepping into the Schuylerville Stakes, the Jena Antonucci trainee lived up to her name, stumbling badly at the start and dumping Javier Castellano. She regressed in the Adirondack Stakes before shipping to Gulfstream Park for the one-mile Hallandale Beach Stakes. Whatintheliteral's performance was lackluster down the stretch, her mind on rival instead of moving forward, both going up and down while the winner, Andrea, ran away to a 7 3/4 length victory, recording a 13.90-second final furlong while under a drive. Antonucci gave Whatintheliteral a three-furlong move in 38 seconds flat for the Frizette over Belmont's dirt training track.

Lord Nelson's (Pulpit) daughter Whatintheliteral is the third winner and first blacktype earner in her immediate family. Her dam Lilikoi is a half-sister to Manchurian High, a veteran of 51 starts, and earnings of $519,443 as a turf router. Whatintheliteral hasn't progressed since her Astoria victory and would need a considerable form reversal to be competitive in the Frizette. Pass.

Trained by Jena Antonucci, Whatintheliteral has spent half her career chasing the backside of The Queens M G. She finished fifth, beaten by 12 1/2 lengths, to that rival in her debut. She then faced The Queens M G three consecutive times at Saratoga over the summer, winning the $150,000 Astoria while The Queens M G finished last, not finishing the Schuylerville (G3) after a bad stumble and losing her rider, and finishing seventh, beaten by 30 1/4 lengths in the Adirondack (G3). Whatintheliteral broke her maiden in the Astoria in her third career start and was most recently a distant second in the $95,000 Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream. Antonucci is winless across the board in graded stakes over the last year, per Race Lens, and jockey Jorge Ruiz has just two career graded stakes wins. Over the past five years, Ruiz is four percent with a 29 percent in the money clip in graded stakes, and both victories came with turf runners. Pass.

5. Scottish Lassie (15-1)

Scottish Lassie faced off against Snowyte in their debut. Scottish Lassie was unfocused down the stretch, didn't want to close on Snowyte, then turned her head and moved away when the eventual winner, Quickick passed. Scottish Lassie earned an 81 speed rating and a low 70 late pace figure.

The Jorge Abreu trainee returned with a sharp four furlongs in 47.2 seconds, fourth-best of the day, and quicker than her pre-race works. She followed up with two progressively slower breezes.

By fifth-ranked first-crop sire McKinzie, Scottish Lassie is the second foal out of the winning Bodemeister mare, Bodebabe. That one's half-sister is a stakes-winning sprinter, and the extended family includes Grade 1 winners Tara's Tango and Visionaire. Scottish Lassie should improve in her second start. She needs to mature but is worth including in the lower exotics if you're playing the field.

Trained by Jorge Abreu, Scottish Lassie comes in out of the same seven-furlong maiden race in which we saw Snowyte. She ended up third, beaten by 6 1/4 lengths all together and 3 3/4 lengths behind runner-up Snowyte. As Laurie pointed out, Scottish Lassie was just as unfocused in the stretch as Snowyte. While that can corrected, her other behaviors in the stretch are going to prove more problematic, and, unlike Snowyte, Scottish Lassie is not getting an equipment change. Abreu is winless with a 33 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes races over the last year, per Race Lens. Jose Lezcano takes over from Irad Ortiz, Jr., who had been named on scratched morning-line favorite Senza Parole. Pass.

6. Paradise City (12-1)

Scratched.

Scratched.

7. Another Cleeshay (20-1)

In her Saratoga debut, Another Cleeshay was slightly fractious and gave a bunny hop when the gate opened. Junior Alvarado hustled her up the rail to the lead and that's all she wrote. Another Cleeshay eased under the wire 9 1/2 lengths in front, getting 6 1/2 furlongs in a pedestrian 1:18.34 with a 6.55-second final half-furlong; however, she earned an 84-speed rating and a strong 90 late pace figure. Gary Contessa gave her a trio of five-furlong moves in the 101 to 103 range over the Saratoga training track, which tends to be slower than the main oval.

By eighth-ranked first-crop sire Volatile, Another Cleeshay is the sixth foal and second winner out of a Tapit mare. Class in the second generation of the distaff line includes Grade 1 winning sprinter Shoplifted and multiple graded winning turf sprinter Imprimis. Grade 1 winners Power Broker, Seize the Grey, and Miss Shop are part of the extended family. It isn't a half-baked idea to include Another Cleeshay in your picks. Live long shot.

Trained by Gary Contessa, Another Cleeshay was a smashing 9 1/2-length debut winner in a 6 1/2-furlong, $80,000 maiden event at Saratoga. Though a bit green coming out of the gate, the filly still performed admirably while receiving a 78 Equibase speed figure. None from that field have reached the winner’s circle though a couple did hit the board in their next start. Placing Another Cleeshay here is a bold move for Contessa. In the past five years, he’s only started three last out maiden winners in a graded-stakes, winning last year with Nutella Fella in the Hopeful (G1). Junior Alvarado has the return call. Live long shot.

8. Senza Parole (3-5)

Scratched.

Scratched.

9. Social Fortress (12-1)

Social Fortress won both starts, including the one-mile Sorority Stakes, by a combined 18 lengths. Sounds good until we take a closer look and note that both starts were at Monmouth, and her speed ratings are at the lower end of the spectrum. She was shaken up and in full flight in the Sorority Stakes stretch but was timed in 1:40, and crawled the final furlong in 13.56 seconds. Jamie Ness gave her a trio of quick four-furlong works at Delaware Park, including two in the 47-second range, both bullets.

By multiple Grade 1-placed Social Inclusion, Social Fortress is the first foal out of Cold Hearted Pearl, a veteran of 55 starts. Class skips to the third generation of the female family and includes multiple graded winning sprinter/miler Coal Front, Grade 2-winning turf miler Azar, and stakes-winning sprinter Conquest Titan.

Social Fortress looks good on paper; however, Monmouth shippers don't fare well in the Frizette. Pass.

Trained by Jamie Ness, Social Fortress is undefeated in two starts, including a seven-length romp in the $201,000 Sorority Stakes. One filly from her debut race was a next out winner with another couple of fillies hitting the board next out. As for the Sorority, many of her rivals haven’t made subsequent starts while a couple others entered and exited the Sorority as maidens. Trainer Ness doesn’t often pop up in graded stakes, but it’s important to take note when he does. In the last five years, he's won graded stakes at an 18 percent rate with a stellar 65 percent in the money clip. Jaime Rodriguez has the return call. Use underneath.

10. Icona Mama (15-1)

Icona Mama is already a road warrior in just three starts and hasn't finished out of the money while facing winners. She was one of 14 fillies in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3). Icona Mama rated in traffic and grabbed the lead in the stretch but couldn't hold off the late-charging winner. She missed the photo for second place, earning an 80 speed rating and 86 late-pace figure. The Flint Stites trainee turns around in 21 days.

By fifth-ranked second-crop sire Maximus Mischief, Icona Mama is the first blacktype earner in two generations of this female family. Her third dam Tainted Angel won the Maryland Million Distaff. Icona Mama is professional, but she's also a one-paced grinder. The blinkers come off in hopes of adding speed. Icona Mama has tactical speed, and while she hasn't displayed the brilliance of her Frizette rivals, she has experience and is professional, which is worth an exotics play.

Trained by Flint Stites, Icona Mama debuted a winner at Presque Isle Downs in a five-furlong, $30,000 maiden event. One filly from that race was a next out winner while another hit the board in her next start. Icona Mama was then second in the off-the-turf, 5 1/2-furlong, $150,000 Bolton Landing and a very close third in the Pocahontas (G3). She was sent off a 29-1 in the Bolton Landing and 31-1 in the Pocahontas (G3), exceeding the betting public’s expectations both times. Stites does not have a graded stakes winner to his name, and in the past five years he’s only sent out this filly in a graded stakes. In that same timeframe, Stites is 13 percent with a 44 percent in-the-money rate with runners coming in off an 8-30 day layoff. Kendrick Carmouche gets the call and will be this filly’s fourth jockey in as many starts. I don’t think Icona Mama wins this, but I could see her getting a piece of the pie. Use underneath.

        Laurie

           Ashley

7. Another Cleeshay (20-1)

7. Another Cleeshay (20-1)

3. Pondering (12-1)

2. The Queens M G (10-1)

1. Snowyte (6-1)

1. Snowyte (6-1)