Head to Head: Lockinge rematch key in Ascot's Queen Anne

Tuesday’s Queen Anne Stakes (G1) opens Royal Ascot 2025 and marks the first Breeders’ Cup Challenge race of the European season. The five-day meeting features 35 races, including eight Group 1 races, four of which are Win and You’re In qualifiers. The Queen Anne winner earns an automatic berth into the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) at Del Mar.

This race has a storied history. Frankel annihilated his rivals here, Goldikova tuned up en route to her third Breeders’ Cup Mile title, and Tepin famously flew the U.S. flag with a historic win in 2016.

The US$1 million contest, regarded as one of Europe’s premier mile races for older horses, has attracted a competitive field of 11 eager to tackle the straight mile. Among them are the top four finishers from the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, a key prep race. Their seven well-matched rivals enter the race off strong performances, having finished fourth or better in their most recent start. All 11 runners are making either their second or third outing since returning from a layoff.

The most familiar to U.S. racing fans is Carl Spackler, previously with Chad Brown, now trained by Ciaron Maher for Yulong Investments. The three-time Grade 1 winner was last seen dominating the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland by 4 1/4 lengths.

The Queen Anne contenders start at the top of the straight-mile chute. Note that the runners’ program and gate position are different. The turf is anticipated to be good to firm. Post time for this Group 1 event is Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. EDT.

Ashley and I have dissected the field, crunched the numbers, and zeroed in on our key plays, including a couple of live long shots worth a look.

Laurie

10. Rosallion (5-2)

Rosallion exits post 10.

A winner of five of eight career starts, Rosallion makes his second start of an 11-month layoff. Last year, he captured two classics, the Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) and the St. James’s Palace (G1), over this course and distance. Rosallion returned after an 11-month break to finish a closing third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths in the 1-mile Lockinge Stakes behind Lead Artist and Dancing Gemini. Conditioned by Richard Hannon, Rosallion earned a 118 Timeform rating. Win Contender.

Lockinge Stakes

3. Dancing Gemini (9-2)

Dancing Gemini exits post 2.

A winner of six of 12 lifetime, Dancing Gemini won two of three starts this year. He made the late place in the Lockinge but was passed in the shadow of the wire by Lead Artist, losing by a neck, recording a 124 Timeform rating. The Roger Teal trainee kicked off the year with a 3 3/4 length victory in the listed Doncaster Mile, then beat rivals, including Lead Artist, in the Sandown Mile (G2). Dancing Gemini placed fourth in last year’s one-mile Queen Elizabeth II (G1) over Ascot’s soft turf. Exotics.

7. Lead Artist (9-2)

Lead Artist exits post 3.

In his second start of the season and first attempt in Group 1 company, Lead Artist pressed the pace in the Lockinge before surging late to win by a head. The John & Thady Gosden trainee earned a 125 Timeform rating. Previously, he finished eighth behind Dancing Gemini in the Sandown Mile. Lead Artist is making his first appearance at Royal Ascot and hasn’t recorded back-to-back wins in nine career starts. Exotics. 

8. Notable Speech (5-1)

Notable Speech exits post 6.

Notable Speech has won five of seven career starts. This classy colt upset Rosallion in last year’s 2000 Guineas (G1). Making his first start off a seven-month layoff, the Charlie Appleby trainee closed behind Rosallion in the Lockinge to earn fourth place, beaten a head, and earning a 118 Timeform rating. One of Notable Speech’s two career defeats came in last year’s St James’s Palace stakes, placing seventh behind Rosallion over good to firm ground. Notable Speech returned to win the Sussex Stakes (G1), so maybe it wasn’t his day. Notable Speech should improve in his second start of the year and could improve if the turf is firm. Exotics.

5. Docklands (25-1)

Docklands exits post 5.

Docklands returns for another shot at the Queen Anne winner’s circle. He finished second in last year’s edition and loves Ascot, having hit the board in all six of his starts over the course. In his first start of the year, Docklands made a strong late run in Ascot’s listed Paradise Stakes but was beaten a head by Queen Anne rival Sardinian Warrior. Docklands earned a 118 Timeform rating. Next out in the Diomed Stakes (G1), Docklands was slow out of the gate and was stuck in traffic with two furlongs to go, but he made a strong late move to gain third, bested 3/4 length. The Harry Eustace trainee earned a 114 Timeform rating. Given his love for Ascot and making his third start off the layoff, Docklands needs a perfect trip, and this one run closer could surprise if there’s a pace meltdown. Consider him a live long shot.

2. Carl Spackler (20-1)

Carl Spackler exits post 8.

With a trio of Grade 1 victories under his girth, Carl Spackler is now a world traveler. He relocated to Australia after his 4 1/2 length Maker’s Mark Mile victory, then shipped to Ascot for trainer Ciaron Maher. Reports indicate that he’s doing well in gallops and was described by his trainer as “an absolute dude.” Carl Spackler has won eight of 12 lifetime and captured three-straight last year, including the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga and the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1), before faltering in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and finishing sixth, 2 3/4 length behind the winner, More Than Looks. Carl Spackler handles firm to good going and recorded a 98 Brisnet rating in the Maker’s Mark Mile. U.S. runners have a solid history at Royal Ascot, and Carl Spackler has tactical speed, can set, press or close, and his race final times are competitive. Long shot exotics chance.

Maker's Mark Mile

Ashley

10. Rosallion (5-2)

Rosallion exits post 10.

Trained by Richard Hannon, Rosallion is a two time winner at Ascot, including winning last year’s edition of the St. James’s Palace over Henry Longfellow and Notable Speech. The rest of the colt’s year was derailed due to a lung infection as well as the potential for a soft course during Ascot’s autumn meet. Rosallion returned to run a bang up third in the Lockinge despite the eleven month layoff. With that race under his girth, I anticipate seeing a third Ascot win for the son of Blue Point. Contender.

3. Dancing Gemini (9-2)

Dancing Gemini exits post 2.

Trained by Roger Teal, Dancing Gemini has had a productive 2025 so far. He began the year with a facile victory in the listed Doncaster Mile, winning by 3 3/4 lengths despite a 5 1/2 month layoff. He moved up in class to take the Sandown Mile, defeating Lead Artist in the process. That rival did turn the tables next out in the Lockinge, but Dancing Gemini’s margin of loss was a mere neck. Dancing Gemini has never won at Ascot but is 7: 2-2-0 at the mile distance. I don’t see this colt as a win threat, but he is a solid play underneath. Exotics.

7. Lead Artist (9-2)

Lead Artist exits post 3

Trained by John and Thady Gosden, Lead Artist needed a race before rounding back into top form. As a 3-year-old, Lead Artist went 5: 2-2-1 with wins in two group 3 events. He was also second in a pair of group two events and third in a listed stakes. He returned to run last of eight behind winner Dancing Gemini in his 2025 bow but won their rematch when facing off in the Lockinge in his second start of the year. That field also included Rosallion in third and Notable Speech in fourth. This will be the Juddmonte owned colt’s Royal Ascot debut, but he’s 6: 3-1-1 at the mile distance. While he did have the fitness advantage over Rosallion last out, I still believe he could be a credible win threat here. Contender.

8. Notable Speech (5-1)

Notable Speech exits post 6.

Trained by Charlie Appleby, Notable Speech was the beaten favorite in the Lockinge, finishing fourth, beaten by 2 3/4 lengths. The son of Dubawi began his career a perfect 4-for-4, including a 1 1/2 length victory over Rosallion in the 2000 Guineas. He didn’t fare well at Ascot last year, running seventh of eight behind winner Rosallion in the St. James’s Palace but rebounded to triumph in the Sussex Stakes (G1). He went off form again in the Moulin de Longchamp Stakes (G1) but was then third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Like some of the others in this field, he needed his most recent race and should move forward off what was still a very good effort in the Lockinge. Exotics.

2. Carl Spackler (20-1)

Carl Spackler exits post 8.

Previously trained by our own Chad Brown but now with Ciaron Maher, Carl Spackler was last seen winning the 2025 edition of the Maker’s Mark Mile. While he didn’t run to form in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, he had previously beaten Breeders’ Cup Mile winner More Than Looks in their previous two meetings, the Fourstardave Handicap and the Keeneland Turf Mile. The time off between the Breeders’ Cup and Keeneland’s spring meet obviously did the now 5-year-old some good. Like most American turf runners, Carl Spackler is accustomed to a firm turf course, so Ascot’s anticipated good to firm going, which does tend to still be softer than our definition of good to firm, could present an issue. However, where else are you going to get 20-1 odds on this son of Lope De Vega? Live long shot.

Analysis

Laurie:

4-year-olds dominate their elders. 24 of the last 31 editions of the race were won by the youngsters.

16 of the last 22 winners were previous Group 1 winners. The Lockinge Stakes is a key prep, especially for runners making their first start off a layoff. However, horses that finished second or worse in the Lockinge have a better winning record since the majority use the race as a fitness stepping stone. Horses that compete in the listed Paradise Stakes are strong bets to finish in the exotics.

Those making their first start off a layoff in the Queen Anne are at a disadvantage.

Favorites and co-favorites win 30% of the time.

Owners and Trainers. The owner advantage goes to Godolphin (eight victories), and since 2000, Aidan O’Brien has four wins and Richard Hannon three.

So, the historical winner is a 4-year-old Group 1 winner and prepped in the Lockinge or Paradise Stakes.

Rosallion fits the historical winner’s profile. The Richard Hannon trainee is making his second start off the layoff and gained ground for third place in the Lockinge Stakes.

Docklands is the top long shot. He loves Royal Ascot and was second in this race last year.

Ashley

Readers, I understand there’s a lot of overlap here, so I’ll try to keep it short and sweet here. Laurie highlighted the important recent trends, and there’s nothing else to say on that front. The top 4 from the key Lockinge all return to face off again here. Unlike in that race, Dancing Gemini, Lead Artist, Notable Speech, and Rosallion should all be on even footing in terms of racing fitness. Notable Speech and Rosallion were both making their first start of 2025 and were coming off significant layoffs. Now, it is important to note that only Rosallion’s layoff was unusual due to illness. European runners do tend to normally get extended winter vacations. Aside from the Lockinge runners, the other entrant that I really like is expat Carl Spackler. He was one of our top turf runners, and while he didn’t necessarily show that at the Breeders’ Cup, I think he’ll come back even better this year.