Head to Head: Journalism faces elders in Pacific Classic
Del Mar’s premiere event, the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic, attracted an exciting field of eight. The second-ranked 3-year-old Journalism faces his elders for the first time, including multiple Grade 1 hero Fierceness and Nysos, who attempts to carry his speed beyond 1 1/16 miles.
The 1 1/4-mile contest offers a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will be contested at the same track. The last Pacific Classic hero to complete the double was the brilliant Flightline (2022).
The Pacific Classic is carded as Race 10 on Saturday’s 11-race card. Post time is 9:00 p.m. EDT.
We take a look at the field to figure out who will definitely have a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic gate two months from now.
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Laurie |
Ashley |
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1. Fierceness (3-1) |
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In his 4-year-old debut, Fierceness set a track record of 1:40.66 for 1 1/16 miles in Churchill’s Alysheba (G2). He placed second in the Met Mile (G1) then faded like a late summer tan in the Whitney (G1), checking in fifth. Todd Pletcher’s charge is a prima donna and needs everything to go his way to win. He likes to be near the front end, and contact with another horse ruins his day. Fierceness was on top of his game the last time he visited Del Mar but returns with dimmed luster. In his favor, he’ll get a ground-saving trip, but he has speed to his outside. Contender. |
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Fierceness last was seen finishing fifth in the Whitney. For an otherwise consistent runner, it was his second career off-the-board finish. But Fierceness has a couple things going for him. He was second to Sierra Leone on this track in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and he has a win at 10 furlongs. The Whitney was an anomaly, and Raging Torrent was a beast in the Met Mile. I also give kudos to Fierceness for running second in the slop in the Met Mile after blowing the Champagne (G1) on a similar surface. Regular rider John Velazquez has the mount. Contender. |
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2. Midnight Mammoth (12-1) |
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The long-winded Midnight Mammoth captured the 1 1/2-mile Cougar II (G3) at Del Mar last summer. That was his last glimpse of the winner’s circle until winning an optional claimer in April. In his last start, the Craig Dollase trainee kept his second-place position around the Santa Anita oval in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2), made Skippylongstocking work for the victory, and earned a career-best 107 Brisnet Speed Rating. Midnight Monmouth was beaten by only 3/4 length, and it was six lengths back to the rest of the field. He’s facing a tougher field and stretching out. Pass. |
Trained by Craig Dollase, Midnight Mammoth enters off a runner-up effort in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Winner Skippylongstocking has raced twice since then and finished off the board both times, losing by a combined 52 lengths. Gold Cup third-place finisher Extensive also was third in the San Diego Handicap (G2). Dollase is 15% wins with a 38% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years and last won a graded stakes when Midnight Monmouth took the Cougar II in July 2024. Midnight Mammoth has hit the board in graded company only once this year. Regular rider Armando Ayuso has the mount. Pass. |
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3. Ultimate Gamble (20-1) |
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In his last start, the appropriately named Ultimate Gamble was all heart in an $80,000 optional claimer in a three-way fight to the wire with the eventual DQ’ed winner Arrothegreat and Lure Him In. The Mark Glatt trainee earned a career-best 100 Brisnet rating for his effort. Ultimate Gamble has never competed beyond 1 1/16 miles, and an optional-claiming event is a long way from Grade 1 competition. Pass. |
Trained by Mark Glatt, the Pacific Classic will be Ultimate Gamble’s stakes debut. In his last start, he crossed the wire second behind Arrowthegreat, who was last in the San Diego Handicap (G2) but was elevated to first with the disqualification of that rival. His numbers have improved with each start this year, and he received a career second best 108 Equibase speed figure. Career-wise, Ultimate Gamble has been very start and stop. He debuted in August 2022 in a race that produced Grade 1 winners Cave Rock and Practical Move. He wasn’t seen again until April 2023 when he raced twice and again dropped off the radar. He resurfaced again in April 2024, raced three times, and then went back on the shelf for nine months. Glatt is 13% wins with a 40% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, accoridng to Race Lens. Glatt believes Ultimate Gamble will like the distance despite never having raced beyond 1 1/16 mile, but I have serious doubts about the level of competition he’s facing. Kazushi Kimura has the call. Pass. |
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4. Nysos (8-5) |
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The only mark on the record of the speedy Nysos was a dead heat for second by a neck in the Churchill Downs (G1) over a sloppy track behind Mindframe. In his last start, he rated nicely behind Mirahmadi in the San Diego Handicap (G2), getting a cushy rail trip before tipping out in the stretch. The Bob Baffert trainee bested his stablemate by 2 3/4 lengths with Tarantino further back in third. Nysos completed 1 1/16 miles in an average 1:41.61 and earned a sharp 104 Brisnet rating with a 100 late-pace figure. It was a decent performance against less accomplished runners. Baffert gave Nysos a trio of stamina works, including a seven-furlong breeze in his second-to-last work. Contender. |
Trained by Bob Baffert, Nysos has received a lot of hype coming into this race, with many declaring him the best horse in training. I’ll concede that his record is quite sparkly, but crowning him the Pacific Classic champ when he’s never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles is a bit much for me. He also has vaced only one strong field, but he ran an excellent race to dead heat for second. With that said, I do expect Nysos to be in the mix at the wire. Regular jockey Flavien Prat has the mount. Contender. |
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5. Indispensable (15-1) |
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Indispensable loves Del Mar and earned his initial victory here after nine starts. His only other winner’s-circle visit was in his last start, a $40,000 optional claimer at a mile, where he fought bravely to win by a neck and recorded a 101 speed rating. The John Sadler trainee showed class with a pair of second-place finishes in listed stakes and was third in the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Indispensable has tactical speed, finished off the board just twice, and is worth a lower exotics look. |
Trained by John Sadler, Indispensable has been an ATM for his connections, quietly putting together a 14: 2-4-5 record. Over half his races have been against maidens as it took him nine attempts to get his picture taken. Since that initial win, he was second in the Shared Belief Stakes, third in the Oklahoma Derby (G3), and second in the Zia Park Derby. Although those are commendable finishes for a maiden winner only, those three fields are a far cry from what he’ll face here. Sadler, who is just 3% wins with a 50% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, lured Paco Lopez west with a trio of mounts on Saturday’s card, including Indispensable. It wouldn’t be a far reach for this colt to hit the board, so I concur with Laurie. Use underneath. |
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6. Journalism (9-5) |
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Journalism gets out of the shadow of his nemesis Sovereignty and has a chance to shine against older horses. After a 1 1/2-length triumph in the Haskell (G1), Mike McCarthy gave Journalism a trio of maintenance works at Del Mar, and the second-best 3-year-old in the country should be ready to roll. Other than the inconsistent Fierceness and Nysos, who is unproven beyond 1 1/16 miles, there isn’t anything to threaten Journalism’s dominance. Win contender. |
Trained by Mike McCarthy, it’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for Journalism. He dodges Sovereignty by remaining on the West Coast but will have to take on a pair of older talented runners in Nysos and Fierceness. Journalism, like Fierceness, at least has experience going 10 furlongs, finishing second to Sovereignty in both the Kentucky Derby and the shortened Belmont. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli gets the leg up. Contender. |
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7. Lure Him In (20-1) |
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An 8-year-old road warrior, Lure Him In usually cashes a check at the optional-claiming level. The old boy proved he still had it when he finished in a dead heat in a three-way finish with Ultimate Gamble, earning a career-high 100 Brisnet rating. But like his rival, Lure Him In is a long way from Grade 1 company. Pass. |
Trained by Sam Wilensky, Lure Him In exits the same optional-claiming race as Ultimate Gamble and finished third behind the bumper-car duo of Arrowthegreat and Ultimate Gamble. Lure Him In has done a little bit of everything: turf, dirt, Tapeta, going long, going short. Most of his wins have been at distances around a mile, but he does have a win at 1 1/4 miles on turf. Wilensky has never had a stakes winner, let alone a Grade 1 winner. Edwin Gonzalez has the mount. Pass. |
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8. Tarantino (20-1) |
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Tarantino is a cut below the best but still cashes a check in graded company as a 7-year-old. The Peter Eurton trainee last was seen finishing a distant sixth behind Nysos in the San Diego (G2). Tarantino has the speed to direct the pace, but I vote him most likely to shore up the lower exotics, especially if Fierceness doesn’t run his race. |
Trained by Peter Eurton, Tarantino last won a race in October 2024 and is 31: 4-8-6 lifetime. He’s multiple graded-stakes placed at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 levels but is obviously a couple steps behind the best in the division. But an honest horse is an honest horse, and Tarantino knows how to cash a check. Edwin Maldonado has the mount. Use underneath. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Fourteen of the last 15 Pacific Classic heroes hit the board in their previous start, and nine won.
Speed rules. Eight pacesetters and four pace pressers were successful.
Bet the favorite. They won eight times, with a trio finishing second. Last year’s favorite finished fourth.
Posts 5 and up are the place to be. Five of the 15 won from post 4, more than any other post. The rail is hit or miss. Only two were successful from the post, and four finished second through fourth.
Journalism doesn’t have any flaws in his armor against this field. I suppose facing older horses could be considered a slight weakness, but he isn’t facing the older heavyweights.
We know his main threats are Fierceness, who has an undependable winning form, and Nysos, who is stretching out for the first time. Journalism can take knocks with the best of them, but Fierceness quits if someone looks at him funny.
Other than Mindframe and Book’em Danno, Nysos hasn’t faced Grade 1-class horses, so he’ll get a class and distance test.
Tarantino and Indispensable are worth including on superfecta tickets.
Ashley: We get an interesting scenario in that we have a few speed-type runners in the field but none who need the lead. Fierceness is a finicky type who needs things to go his way. That doesn’t necessarily mean he has to have the lead, but I think Velazquez will send him from that rail post.
Nysos was given a slight edge on the morning line despite zero experience at classic distances. He has shown the ability to beat up on lesser competition in Grade 2 and Grade 3 events and held his own in lone Grade 1 attempt. But the stretch to 10 furlongs against proven classic runners is a big ask.
Journalism, despite facing elders for the first time, is the one to beat here, in my opinion. This is a supremely talented colt who had the misfortune to be born the same year as Sovereignty. Remove the Kentucky Derby winner from the equation, and Journalism is a one-loss colt with only his debut race as a blemish on his record.
Tarantino or Indispensable could round out the superfecta. Laurie went with Tarantino, but I’m taking Indispensable. He’s been consistent for John Sadler and has never been out of the trifecta at Del Mar.
Selections
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Laurie |
Ashley |
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6. Journalism (9-5) |
6. Journalism (9-5) |
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4. Nysos (8-5) |
4. Nysos (8-5) |
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1. Fierceness (3-1) |
1. Fierceness (3-1) |
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8. Tarantino (20-1) |
5. Indispensable (15-1) |